2023/03/23 (197) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

The protests against the German Corona policy have given the so-called Reich citizens a boost and made their milieu public. Again and again the scene tries to saddle up with social protests. A scene that unites right-wing extremists and science deniers, some of whom want to rebuild the historic German Reich, others who want to create a new state. What drives these people? What ideology do they follow?

What are “Reichsbürger”?
So-called Reich citizens do not recognize the Federal Republic of Germany as a state. They falsely declare that the historic German Reich continues to exist to this day. “Reichsbürger” negate today’s democratic and constitutional structures such as parliament, laws or courts. They do not want to pay taxes, social security contributions or fines. But neither do they form a unified movement. Some of them even see themselves as heads of state of their own little empire, with their own identity cards and license plates. The Office for the Protection of the Constitution uses the term “self-administrator” for these. They claim legal and territorial autonomy outside of the Federal Republic. There are also mixed forms between “Reichsbürger” and/or “Self-Government”.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

The mixed statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and/or much more  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
caused the S&P 500 to see an intraday reversal of almost 3% midweek. Powell described the banking turmoil as isolated events, with the focus remaining on high inflation and a resilient labor market. However, Yellen provided the real reason for yesterday’s price slide. In a Senate hearing, the Treasury Secretary emphasized that the Biden Administration is not considering general insurance of all customer deposits with American banks.

Does the US Treasury Secretary either know or fear that the regional US banks in the US do not need any explicit legal guarantees?
Or dos sge know or fear that the individual account holders need government financial support and there is currently no legal basis for this?
She knows it best! Not me! But what I do know is that such statements result in volatile price action. Sometimes also short-term, mother-term and/or si called technicallly long-term trend reversal formation? What I don’t know either! Nevertheless, may be i will write a long DOW Future and/or TESLA shares again…Forex
Chinese Yuan Climbs to 5-Week Highs

Commodities
Silver Tops at 7-Week High

Stock Markets
Asian Stocks Remain Under Pressure
European Stocks Fall on Thursday
London Equities Close Sharply Lower After BoE

Chinese Yuan Climbs to 5-Week Highs
The offshore yuan strengthened past 6.83 per dollar, hitting its highest levels in five weeks as the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike and signaled that the end of its tightening campaign could be in sight. Still, traders remain cautious as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials don’t see rate cuts this year and that they are prepared to raise rates higher than expected if needed, while US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s latest comments reignited concerns about the banking crisis. The yuan came under pressure recently from prospects of higher liquidity after the People’s Bank of China announced a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio for the first time this year to aid the economic recovery. The central bank also held its key lending rates steady at its March fixing, keeping the one-year loan prime rate at 3.65% and that of the five-year at 4.3%.

Silver Tops at 7-Week High
Silver futures topped at $23 per ounce in late March, holding close to the levels last seen in early February but underperforming the rally for gold as investors weighed the flight to precious metals against expectations of weak demand for silver as an industrial component. Despite the dovish tone struck by the Federal Reserve in its March meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank does not expect any rate cuts this year, dashing any hopes for lower borrowing costs. Higher interest rates press the demand for silver as an input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, as reflected in decreased prices of solar panel equities. Still, a flight to precious metals proceeded after US Treasury Secretary Yellen denied considering the protection of all deposits in the US banking system by the government. On the supply side, steady outflows in bullion inventories continued to support silver prices.

Asian Stocks Remain Under Pressure
Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday, pressured by weak global sentiment as the Federal Reserve pushed back against bets for interest rate cuts this year and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers that the US government was not considering a “blanket insurance” for bank deposits. The Fed delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials don’t see rate cuts this year and that they are prepared to raise rates higher than expected if needed. Investors also digested data showing Japanese manufacturers remained pessimistic for the third straight month in March amid concerns about slowing global growth that could hurt the country’s export-heavy industries. Shares in Australia, Japan and South Korea declined, mainland China stocks fluctuated, and Hong Kong stocks advanced.

European Stocks Fall on Thursday
European equity markets closed lower on Thursday, as investors digested interest rate hikes from central banks including the Fed, the BoE, the SNB and the Norges Bank. The Stoxx bank index fell more than 2%, after Citigroup downgraded Europe’s banking sector rating to “neutral” from “overweight”, saying the likely continued monetary tightening adds to worries stemming from the turmoil in the global banking sector. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Yellen told Congress that she hasn’t considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits.

London Equities Close Sharply Lower After BoE
The FTSE 100 closed 0.85% lower at 7,500 on Thursday, underperforming its European counterparts after the bank of England raised its key Bank Rate by 25bps, as expected, and underscored the willingness to continue hiking borrowing costs if needed. The decision was voted by a majority of 7-2, while markets were expecting 6-3, with John Cunliffe unexpectedly voting for a rate increase. The move was in line with the ECB’s and SNB’s rate increase this month, opting to prioritize its fight against soaring inflation despite significant near-term volatility for European banks. Lenders were among the sharpest losers of the session, led by a near 3% tumble for HSBC and a 2% decrease for Barclays.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s a week with more or less 20 central bank decisions around the world; among others also in the USA, in Switzerland, and or also in the UK. Therefore, the focus should be on the Forex. But the stock market also has its stories that drive price action. Above all, the (un)justified fear of many account holders that their money is not safe in the event of bankruptcy. Is this an emotionally charged joke? While UBS CEO Ralph Hamers made a bargain of the century with the takeover of Credit Suisse! Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to belittle the US regional bank crisis. But unintentionally outing myself as an incompetent bank analyst in what about ism also not! Just look at the last quarterly report of your bank! Everything else is (un)consciously (un)wanted busybodies who want to distinguish themselves at the expense of others! Or?

Trade CFDs on the financial market like in a supermarket!
Because you don’t buy there what you don’t know; and/or also believe what is wrong! And if so, clarify this with your supermarket; even like with your bank (the cfd`s you want to trade)! And that regardless of what others, including me, are saying and/or writing. I’m currently working full-time in one – behind the counter and mainly buy/sell fish & cheese, alongside meat, poultry and salamis. And know what I’m doing – know what I’m writing about. But of course, I don’t know the future price action either. That’s why I always write that my readers should operate best with entry prices, exit prices, and/or stop prices! Even if most of my readsers don’t do it – I’m not fooling myself. Nevertheless, I feel it is my obligation to provide information! After all, I would like to inform you – and not publish! So don’t tell you anything to make me feel superior to you that won’t do you any good. Give you hope to make some profit trades with the price action…

This week may be i `ll close our short NDX 4XSetUp.
So raed every sindle D2D Edition. I`ll mainly focus in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps on our long BITCOIN Future 4XSetUp again, this week…However,
let`s get a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
short        TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
short        NASDAQ:NDX 2023/03/06 12290 11152 12880
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945 34420 22875

I have addressed the front page of todays DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper Edition with the BITCOIN Future price action; thanks Bloomberg. Remember – and/or don`t forget – the BITCOIN Future surged more than 12% to above $24,000 on Monday, last week, and closing in on its highest level since June 2022, as fears about contagion from SVB in the broader banking industry eased. The price action is and remains an intellectual transvestite show – like in the red light district. But what seems to be normal in 2023; after the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008 and the dovish QE policy of the central banks. We now have a generation of market guys who would rather trade cryptos than leave their money safe and earning interest in the bank. Gay, Gay, Gay – a pack of Rottweilers, who drive a ball up and down, price action. And that independently of their master – the real economy. And don’t get me wrong. I don’t want to denounce non heterosexuals with this! But I also don’t have a shred of bad conscience, and/or let alone feel guilty, to argue against non hetrosexuells because I’m heterosexual – and mostly diametrically asymmetrical on sexual issues. But let’s get back to the BITCOIN future. And let’s continue with the latest price action. Because there are a few correlations that (do not) make sense. Like us regulators announced a series of emergency measures to provide liquidity following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank. Investors are meanwhile betting that the Fed would be less aggressive in raising interest rates, which, in turn, sparked an appetite for recent beaten-down cryptocurrencies. That`s it! May be?
We stay long, with our 4XSetUps BITCOIN Future…

However,
US stocks finished in positive territory in a volatile session on Thursday,
as investors try to recover from Wednesday’s sell-off. The Dow added more than 75 points, while the S&P and the Nasdaq were up 0.3% and 1%, respectively. Tech shares led the gains, namely Microsoft (2%), Nvidia (2.7%), Meta (2.2%) and Apple (0.7%), amid declines in Treasury yields. The Fed raised its funds rate by 25bps and signaled one remaining quarter-point hike this year.