2023/03/22 (196) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Reichsburger-Razzia:
Man in custody after being shot – police officers and soldiers also targeted

During searches in the “Reichsbürger” milieu, a police officer was shot and injured.
The official of a special task force suffered a bullet in the arm in Reutlingen, Baden-Württemberg, his condition is stable according to dpa information.
The federal prosecutor is investigating against the shooter, among other things, on suspicion of multiple attempted murder. The searches on Wednesday were related to a major raid in early December, which was directed against, among other things, the entrepreneur Heinrich XIII. Prince Reuss as the alleged ringleader. According to the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office, in the course of these investigations, in addition to the 25 main suspects so far, 5 new suspects are in their sights. They are suspected of supporting a terrorist organization that wanted to overthrow the political system in Germany. There were campaigns on Wednesday in a total of eight federal states and in Switzerland.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when things happen. The quote from Lenin aptly describes the last few weeks of the banks.
We’re in no man’s land, and as far as short-term trend goes, it might as well be a coin toss. Too early to go short, too late to go long, that’s what I hear from many Wall Street dealer tables. A market for gamblers, says a NYSE floor broker. How the First Republic debacle will continue to unfold remains difficult to say. A capital injection from investors will probably only succeed if the regulators assume the greatest risks in the bank’s balance sheet or hedge against losses. As for today’s FED meeting, opinions differ widely. The key interest rate was likely to be raised by 25 basis points, but what happens after that? Will the FED’s interest rate targets for 2024 even fall, and will the reduction in the balance sheet be stopped? GameStop stock is up almost 40% after the results, with Nike stock slightly under pressure. While the results in the past quarter were robust, the statements on the current quarter are rather cautious.Forex
Japanese Yen Hits 5-Week High

Commodities
Gold Rises Sharply After Fed

Stock Markets
China Stocks Climb for Second Session
MOEX Halts Rally on Wednesday
European Stocks Rise Slightly

Japanese Yen Hits 5-Week High
The Japanese yen strengthened to 131 per dollar, the highest in 5-weeks after the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bps as expected but Fed Chair Powell said during the press conference that the pause in hiking rates was considered to address the banking crises. On the domestic front, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s January meeting showed members reiterated the need to maintain ultra-easy policies, as it takes time to reach the 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner. The BOJ left its policy of ultra-low interest rates unchanged this month at Governor Kuroda’s final policy meeting before his retirement.

Gold Rises Sharply After Fed
Gold prices rose past $1,960 per ounce, heading toward the one-year high of $1,990 touched on March 17th as investors weighed on the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone in its March policy decision. The central bank raised its funds rate by 25bps, as loosely expected by markets, but refrained from stating that it expects “ongoing increases” in borrowing costs to curb high inflation in the US economy. Policymakers toned down the urgency to lower consumer prices to address the need for financial stability after bank failures earlier in the month threatened a crisis in the sector and cooled expectations of growth. Still, the central bank said it still expects some additional policy firming in the near future.China Stocks Climb for Second Session
The Shanghai Composite rose by 0.31% to close at 3,266, while the Shenzhen Component grew by 0.61% to 11,497 on Wednesday, advancing for the second straight session and taking cues from a positive lead on Wall Street, amid hopes that the worst of the banking turmoil has passed and the Federal Reserve would tighten its policy less aggressively. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China has announced a surprise cut to lenders’ reserve requirement ratio for the first time this year to aid the economic recovery. Moreover, the central bank held its key lending rates steady at its March fixing, with the one-year loan prime rate at 3.65% and that of the five-year at 4.3%.

MOEX Halts Rally on Wednesday
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index was 0.4% down at the 2,388 mark on Wednesday, edging down from the sharp rally in the last three sessions as losses for the energy sector offset gains for banks and miners. Gazprom stocks hovered slightly below the flatline to extend yesterday’s trim, but shares remain 3% above values from last week as investors continued to assess the company’s future without European exports. Amid President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, President Putin said that all agreements have been reached regarding the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, set to increase the supply of natural gas to China. Transneft shares also traded below the flatline despite reports that it will pay dividends for 2022. On the other hand, a 7% surge for the Bank of St. Petersburg carried financial shares to book sharp gains in the session.

European Stocks Rise Slightly
European equity markets rose slightly on Thursday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 up 0.2% led by food and beverage stocks, although gains were capped by cautiousness as investors expect more interest rate increases from major central banks. A hotter-than-expected UK inflation reading raised bets the BoE will continue to raise interest rates to tame high inflation. Also, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank will deliver price stability, and bring inflation back to 2% over the medium term. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates by 25 bps later in the day. The financial services sector was under pressure, with Credit Suisse down 6% and Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank retreating 2% each. Nevertheless, we are going long again today in the DOW Future and/or TESLA shares. If you want something more conservative in your portfolio, you can also find a long 4XSetUp in the BMW share. As in the DAX; which is even less technology-heavy than the DOW Future. And/Or if you like it very elegant and noble? Go long, only always with a stop price, frenc like, in LVMH!DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s a week with more or less 20 central bank decisions around the world; among others also in the USA, in Switzerland, and or also in the UK. Therefore, the focus should be on the Forex. But the stock market also has its stories that drive price action. Above all, the (un)justified fear of many account holders that their money is not safe in the event of bankruptcy. Is this an emotionally charged joke? While UBS CEO Ralph Hamers made a bargain of the century with the takeover of Credit Suisse! Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to belittle the US regional bank crisis. But unintentionally outing myself as an incompetent bank analyst in what about ism also not! Just look at the last quarterly report of your bank! Everything else is (un)consciously (un)wanted busybodies who want to distinguish themselves at the expense of others! Or?

Trade CFDs on the financial market like in a supermarket!
Because you don’t buy there what you don’t know; and/or also believe what is wrong! And if so, clarify this with your supermarket; even like with your bank (the cfd`s you want to trade)! And that regardless of what others, including me, are saying and/or writing. I’m currently working full-time in one – behind the counter and mainly buy/sell fish & cheese, alongside meat, poultry and salamis. And know what I’m doing – know what I’m writing about. But of course, I don’t know the future price action either. That’s why I always write that my readers should operate best with entry prices, exit prices, and/or stop prices! Even if most of my readsers don’t do it – I’m not fooling myself. Nevertheless, I feel it is my obligation to provide information! After all, I would like to inform you – and not publish! So don’t tell you anything to make me feel superior to you that won’t do you any good. Give you hope to make some profit trades with the price action…

This week may be i `ll close our short NDX 4XSetUp.
So raed every sindle D2D Edition. I`ll mainly focus in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps on our long BITCOIN Future 4XSetUp again, this week…However,
let`s get a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
short        TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
short        NASDAQ:NDX 2023/03/06 12290 11152 12880
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945 34420 22875

“He who is not diligent will feel sorry in vain”;
is a Chinese wisdom that I (un)consciously (un)wantedly have taken to heart since I can remember.
Which, for better or worse, was due to the upbringing of my hard-working roman catholic franciscan parents, who, as simple peasant children, as a construction worker and/or cleaning lady, here in my homeland germany, had truly inherited a solid moral framework to me. Father & Mother – Ying & Yang. This is what they always taught me – and what I have always found profound and instructive in Chinese actors like Jackie Chan and Jet Li. And today, a few hours ago, when I started to finish writing this D2D, I had to read on the internet that Jet Li had passed away. I loved him – his roles he played in his films. Morally impeccable, always trying to find himself on the fair side of history! An approach that is more than difficult for us imperfect men in this flawed world! When trading on the financial market, let alone during our main professional activity, as well as in private life! Or, my dear faithful readers?

In contemplation, the deep thinking about death, we remember our real purpose on earth – and that our current actions decide whether we spend eternity in heaven or hell. Pope Francis also reminded us of this. As he once emphasized in November 2017, in a different context: “A fundamental characteristic of the Christian is the sense of the feverish expectation of the final encounter with God.” At that time, Francis spoke at the celebration of Holy Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica for the cardinals and bishops who had died in the past year. In the Gospel, Jesus strengthens our hope, so the Pope continues, with the words: “I am the living bread which came down from heaven. Whoever eats of this bread will live forever” (John 6:51). These words refer to Christ’s sacrifice on the cross, the Pope recalled at the time: “He accepted death in order to save the people whom the Father had given him and who had died in slavery to sin.” Jesus thereby became our brother, if I understood the pope correctly at the time – and shared our destiny with us until death; through his love he broke the yoke of death and opened the doors of life to us.

As a baptized catholic and/or passionate friend of the Old Testament,
I always believed during his lifetime that Jet Li was a brother of mine!? Just like I was a trzly brother of hin, in spirit?! „May all his surviving fellow human beings who are close to him remain fraternally familiar to me and my surviving fellow human beings who are close to me in eternity! We were, we are and we will always act in the same team, brother…“