2023/03/20 (194) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

XI visits Putin: VISITS PUTIN: belly brushing among friends – West looks suspiciously to Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping underlined their strategic partnership at a meeting in Moscow.
“Our cooperation in the international arena undoubtedly helps to strengthen the fundamental principles of world order and multipolarity,” Putin said when he received Xi at the Kremlin on Monday. The Chinese leader said the partnership between his country and Russia contributes to international fairness and justice. Both were obviously alluding to what they considered to be too great an influence of the USA on world politics.

A central theme of Xi’s visit to Moscow – he is in the Russian capital from Monday to Wednesday – is the war in Ukraine, just days after the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Putin on war crimes charges. Even before Xi’s arrival, the Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized that the ICC must maintain objectivity, should respect the immunity of heads of state and should not “politicize” or use double standards. China has not condemned Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, but has repeatedly spoken out against the use of nuclear weapons and presented a vague peace initiative in February calling for a ceasefire and talks, but so far has produced no tangible progress. Upon Xi’s arrival, Putin said he welcomed his plan to “resolve the acute crisis in Ukraine.”DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

The futures were able to recover significantly from the pre-market lows, although the situation remains unclear.

The ECB and European Banking Authority emphasize that the AT1 (additional tier 1 instruments) will only be touched if the shares are wiped out in advance.
This is a reaction to the decision of UBS/CS to put the shareholders before the holders of these bonds. For the USA it is much more important how the First Republic will continue. The country’s 11th largest bank is said to have lost 40% of customer deposits by the end of last week. A takeover has become much more likely. JP Morgan again emphasizes that the banking environment cannot be compared to the financial crisis, especially after the measures taken by the regulators. While inflation is not yet ‘healed’, either way growth is currently robust and we are most likely seeing the end of QT. Combined with lower yields and real interest rates, and renewed Fed balance sheet expansion, a short-term rally could be triggered, with the tech sector in the lead.

However, this is nothing more than another bear market rally that should be sold.
For a sustainable rally, inflation must fall below 3.5% and earnings growth pick up, while the banking crisis is resolved.Forex
DXY Falls for 3rd Session

10Y Bond Yield
Gold Jumps to 1-Year High

Stock Markets
Asian Stocks Mostly Decline
Russian Stocks Extend Rally
European Shares Fall, Banking Sector Under Pressure

DXY Falls for 3rd Session
The dollar index fell to below 103.5 on Monday, extending losses for the 3rd session as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve might not hike rates as much as previously thought because of the banking crises. In the span of 2 weeks, tech startup-focused Silicon Valley Bank and New York Signature Bank collapsed, First Republic Bank received a lifeline from large US banks and Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS. Meanwhile, to ensure global dollar liquidity, the Fed offered daily currency swaps to BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, and SNB. The euro and the pound were up around 0.5% against the dollar in the afternoon trading in Europe.

Gold Jumps to 1-Year High
Gold erased early losses and jumped to $2,000 per ounce on Monday, the highest in one year and extending last week’s 6.5% gain as investors fled to safe-haven assets upon further reassessment of the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse and emergency responses by major central banks. While the takeover initially sparked risk-on sentiment, shares for both banks plummeted after the deal wiped out $17.3 billion in Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, spurring concerns about risks to other banks worldwide. Consequently, major central banks coordinated a joint effort to increase dollar liquidity through swap arrangements, aiming to limit the consequences of the current strain in the global financial system. Meanwhile, investors brace for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision this week, with money markets broadly undecided on whether the central bank may hold rates unchanged to keep financial conditions loose for troubled lenders or extend its fight against inflation with further rate hikes.

Asian Stocks Mostly Decline
Asian equity markets mostly fell on Monday as investors continued to assess risks to the global banking and financial system even after UBS’s government-backed takeover of Credit Suisse and a coordinated action by major central banks to boost dollar liquidity. Investors also braced for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week, where it is expected to deliver a more moderate 25 basis point rate hike in light of easing inflationary pressures and the recent banking turmoil. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China held its key lending rates steady for the seventh straight month at its March fixing, keeping the one-year loan prime rate at 3.65% and that of the five-year at 4.3%. Shares in Australia, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong declined.

Russian Stocks Extend Rally
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index soared by 3.2% to close at the six-month high of 2,397 on Monday, extending last session’s near 3% jump as investors continued to bet on strong profits for Russia’s financial sector. After Sberbank’s 9% rally on Friday due to dividend announcements, VTB shares soared by 14% after the bank’s CEO said the company expects record profits in the first quarter of 2023. Sberbank also rose another 3% on Monday. Strong corporate results and signals that business is recovering from Western sanctions supported the Russian financial sector to surge over 17% year-to-date.

European Shares Fall, Banking Sector Under Pressure
The DAX was down 1% and the STOXX 600 lost nearly 1.8% on Monday, after their worst week since September of 2022, and lead by a nearly 4% plunge in bank shares. Investors remain concerned over the health of the banking sector and the global financial system even after the Swiss government engineered a forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS in response to client outflows and a dramatic selloff in the target company’s stock and bonds, and a coordinated action by major central banks to boost dollar liquidity. UBS said it will write down about $17 billion worth of Credit Suisse bonds as part of its rescue merger and Credit Suisse’s AT-1 notes dropped to as low as 1 cent on the dollar. Shares of Credit Suisse were down around 63%, UBS almost 13%, Deutsche Bank 10%, Commerzbank 8.5%, and BNP Paribas 8%.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s a week with more or less 20 central bank decisions around the world; among others also in the USA, in Switzerland, and or also in the UK. Therefore, the focus should be on the Forex. But the stock market also has its stories that drive price action. Above all, the (un)justified fear of many account holders that their money is not safe in the event of bankruptcy. Is this an emotionally charged joke? While UBS CEO Ralph Hamers made a bargain of the century with the takeover of Credit Suisse! Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to belittle the US regional bank crisis. But unintentionally outing myself as an incompetent bank analyst in what about ism also not! Just look at the last quarterly report of your bank! Everything else is (un)consciously (un)wanted busybodies who want to distinguish themselves at the expense of others! Or?

Trade CFDs on the financial market like in a supermarket!
Because you don’t buy there what you don’t know; and/or also believe what is wrong! And if so, clarify this with your supermarket; even like with your bank (the cfd`s you want to trade)! And that regardless of what others, including me, are saying and/or writing. I’m currently working full-time in one – behind the counter and mainly buy/sell fish & cheese, alongside meat, poultry and salamis. And know what I’m doing – know what I’m writing about. But of course, I don’t know the future price action either. That’s why I always write that my readers should operate best with entry prices, exit prices, and/or stop prices! Even if most of my readsers don’t do it – I’m not fooling myself. Nevertheless, I feel it is my obligation to provide information! After all, I would like to inform you – and not publish! So don’t tell you anything to make me feel superior to you that won’t do you any good. Give you hope to make some profit trades with the price action…

This week may be i `ll close our short NDX 4XSetUp.
So raed every sindle D2D Edition. I`ll mainly focus in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps on our long BITCOIN Future 4XSetUp again, this week…However,
let`s get a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
short        TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
short        NASDAQ:NDX 2023/03/06 12290 11152 12880
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945 34420 22875

I have addressed the front page of this DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper Edition with the french president Emmanuel macron and/or also the takeover of the Credit Suisse by the UBS. Just nine votes were missing to overthrow the French government. The fact that the controversial pension reform is now accepted is at best a Pyrrhic victory for President Macron and the government. Macron’s policy is hanging by a thread. Many fear riots in major French cities; but I’m not assuming that. But I’m not an expert on French domestic politics – even if I’m sorry to follow you.

However, I think I know a little better about the takeover of Credit Suisse – in all modesty.
Ralph Hamers could hardly hide his happiness: “It’s a good day for the Swiss financial center,” he told Swiss television (SRF). But above all, it was and is a very good day for him. Because the CEO of the major bank UBS took over his biggest compatriot and/or competitor, Credit Suisse, for a bargain in a Swiss rescue operation. Because he only has to pay a ridiculous three billion francs for it. If you let that melt in your mouth – regardless of all the emotions that accompanied this deal (think about it) – you can only congratulate him for it. His polite, reserved negotiating skills and/or patience have paid off – for Switzerland, for everyone involved, and last but not least for him. In retrospect he did everything right. The second largest bank in Switzerland (167 years old, 531 billion total assets, 50,000 employees) was worth more than seven billion on the stock exchange on Friday. That`s why in some stock market circles, the word “bargain of the century” whispered to one another. The prominent Swiss economics professor Sergio Rossi comments on the coup: “UBS has received a gift.”
That’s it! Happy Birthday…

Independently of this headlines, the us stocks regain ground, while DXY falls for 3rd Session.
The Dow Jones added almost 400 points, the S&P 500 gained nearly 1% and the Nasdaq also rose as bank’s fears of contagion eased after UBS rescues Credit Suisse. While the dollar index fell to below 103.5 on Monday, extending losses for the 3rd session as investors anticipate that the FED might not hike rates as much as previously thought because of the banking crises.