2023/03/16 (192) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Football, the most incidental thing in the world?
No, if hooligans take themselves more important than the game!
In Napoli, clashes broke out between fans of Frankfurt and the Italian police on the sidelines of the round of 16 second leg of the Champions League.
Masked German fans attacked police officers in the city center with firecrackers and chairs on Wednesday, who then used tear gas. Several cars caught fire. In the run-up to the game, the Italian authorities issued a ban on ticket sales for Eintracht fans “to protect security”. Hundreds of supporters of the Frankfurt club still came to Napoli, as an AFP journalist reported. They gathered in front of their hotel in the afternoon and moved to the city center, where the riots broke out. According to the Corriere dello Sport newspaper, around 800 police officers were on duty. With a view to the riots, the newspaper spoke of a “guerrilla war”. Naples Mayor Gaetano Manfredi then reported “crazy and unacceptable devastation.” Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser (SPD) wrote on Twitter: “This violence tonight is to be condemned in the strongest possible terms. Violent criminals and chaos are destroying the sport.”
Frankfurt lost the game against Napoli 0:3 in the evening and that’s it eliminated from the Champions League.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

The turmoil in European and American bank stocks is driving investors into mega-tech stocks.
Many of these companies are cash strong, with solid balance sheets. The fact that Credit Suisse strengthens the liquidity and capital base with a $54 billion loan from the Swiss National Bank and buys back part of the outstanding debt via the open market stabilizes the bank and the entire sector. In the US, First Republic Bank is said to be considering all options, including a possible sale of the bank. The rating agency Fitch has also placed Western Alliance Bancorp on its watch list for a possible credit rating downgrade. It’s hardly surprising that Wall Street remains on hold with banking sector stability in focus.

Focus on the 20000 mark in Bitcoin and/or 15000 in the DAX
For better or for worse, these are likely to be the most important price action zones for our 4XsetUps this week. It’s going to be a very volatile week in the US in terms of price action with lots of inflation data to be released. But more about that in the next D2D Affiliate Financial Online Newspaper Edition.Forex
Euro Extend Gains Above $1.06

10Y Bond Yield
US Treasury Yields Retreat Further

Commodities
Gold Supported by Haven Demand

Stock Markets
Asian Stocks Fall on Global Banking Fears
Hang Seng Slumps 1.6% to Close at Over 3-Month Low
European Stocks Rebound on Thursday

Euro Extend Gains Above $1.06
The euro consolidated gains above $1.06 after the European Central Bank on Thursday raised interest rates as expected by 50 basis points to combat inflation and despite recent turmoil in the financial markets. ECB policymakers said the Euro Area banking sector was resilient and that they were monitoring current market tensions closely, while they stood ready to respond as necessary to preserve price stability and maintain financial stability in the region.

US Treasury Yields Retreat Further
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to the 3.4% mark in mid-March, the lowest in six weeks, as persistent concerns regarding the stability of the global financial sector ramped up demand for the safety of US government debt. The potential sale of the First Republic Bank extended the risk of a crisis in the banking sector after the collapse of Signature Bank and SVB. To add, the Swiss National Bank’s liquidity support for Credit Suisse offered a little relief for systemic risks to European lenders. Meanwhile, US unemployment claims figures were well below expectations in mid-March, reigniting concerns of a stubbornly tight labor market. Building permits also rose more than expected, supporting signals of a hot economy.Gold Supported by Haven Demand
Gold traded around $1,920 an ounce on Thursday, hovering near its strongest levels in six weeks, supported by rising demand for safe-haven assets following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the US, as well as fresh troubles at Switzerland-based Credit Suisse. Investors were fearful about the prospect of a global banking crisis and economic instability, and the turmoil fueled speculations that major central banks could take a less aggressive approach to policy tightening in order to prevent a severe recession.

Asian Stocks Fall on Global Banking Fears
Asian equity markets fell on Thursday, weighed down by fresh turmoil at Credit Suisse that exacerbated concerns about the stability of the global financial system. However, this fueled speculations that major central banks could take a less aggressive approach to policy tightening in order to prevent a severe recession. Investors also digested data showing Japan’s trade deficit widened in February, while Australia’s unemployment rate declined to 3.5% in the same month. Shares in Australia, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and mainland China all declined.

Hang Seng Slumps 1.6% to Close at Over 3-Month Low
The Hang Seng tumbled 203.75 points or 1.64% to finish at 19,219.12 on Thursday, resuming to its lowest level in more than 3 months after rallying in the prior session, as fears about the health of Credit Suisse Group added to concerns fueled by the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the US. Shares of the Swiss lender sank to a fresh record low Wednesday for the second day, as Saudi National Bank, its biggest shareholder late last year, ruled out adding to its stake.

European Stocks Rebound on Thursday
European equity markets rebounded on Thursday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 up 1.3% and the Stoxx bank index recovering 1.1% from their worst day in over a year. Shares of Credit Suisse jumped 18% from a record low after saying it would borrow up to $54 billion from the country’s central bank under a covered loan facility and a short-term liquidity facility. At the same time, the ECB stick to a 50 bps rate hike to combat inflation and said the future rate path would depend on incoming data due to the European and US banking system turmoil. President Christine Lagarde also said the euro area banking sector is resilient, with substantial capital and liquidity positions.
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Bitcoin fell below 20000 on Saturday and has recovered splendidly. Like a ball which were pushed under water. What could also happen to the DAX at 15000 this week. It seems like that the price action will get more as usually volatile this week, until the market, most financial market particpants, can limit the effects of the SVB collapse!

What happened?
In the US, the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed.
In addition, the New York Signature Bank will also be wound up, in the enxt days. The Silicon Valley Bank was one of the most important money houses for start-up financing in the USA. The start-ups had parked large deposits with the bank in recent years, but now had to liquidate them faster than expected in view of the rising interest rates in the USA. In order to be able to continue to provide customers with money, the bank wanted to collect liquid funds through an emergency capital increase. But the attempt to collect fresh money from investors by issuing new shares caused further uncertainty. And that`s why on Thursday last week alone, SVB shares collapsed by a good 60%. So that after this price slide, the shares were suspended from trading on Friday and the bank was placed under state control. The US authorities also closed Signature Bank in New York on Sunday. The bank was the only remaining bank with large crypto businesses after Silvergate Capital went bust last week before.

We`re experiencing the shadowside of the turnaround in interest rates. But blaming the us monetary policy for this misses the target. Because central banks can only fight the symptoms; and hope that fiscal policies will become more restrictive. Because that’s where the rub is buried.  Joe Biden, with his green economic policy, has dug the us consumer and/or us taxpayer in a monetary material pit under the guise of a liberal democracy; that us taxpayers and/or us consumers will not be able to get out of; except only with growth and/or also restrictive fiscal policy…On the left are the current prices of our open 4XSetUps Trading Capabilities,
and/or under a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                  TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long           ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long           XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
long           CME:BTC1! 2023/02/13 21710 27365 18615
short           TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
long           TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%

Let`s raise the stop proce in the DAX Future at 15.000 points, i wrote yesterday day before?
As if I had guessed and/or feared it much more! However we`re stopped out in the DAX Future…

The DAX Future is weakening while the BITCOIN Future is extremely strong like a bear; excuse me, i mean tough as a bull. The USD meanwhile is expected to be lower like the oil price. But the yield curve is also becoming cheaper. Did you expect that? Not me! Thar`s why i hope you took the profits in the DAX Future above 15000 points. And/Or at least at 15000 points. Today, the DAX Future closed at 14977 points, as i wrote this text. However, if the DAX rause back tomorrow? Let him roll! But it seems like that the volatility seems to be pushing the DAX Fzture down. And if the DAX Future turns back avove 15000? So what! We’re still long with the ADIDAS share. More about the DAX Future may be next week…

However,
the Dow Jones closed higher by more than 350 points while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 1.8% and 2.5%, respectively, after the news that big banks will support First Republic Bank brought some relief for the troubled banking sector. A group of major financial institutions including BoA, JPMorgan, and Citi has agreed to deposit $30 billion in the First Republic to stabilize it, sending its shares over 10% higher after opening 36% in the red. Meanwhile, data showed banks borrowed a record $164.8 billion from two Fed backstop facilities in the week ended March 15th. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Yellen told the Senate finance committee that the American financial system is in good shape despite the collapse of two midsize banks. On the data front, first-time filings for unemployment insurance declined while the housing starts and building permits showed the housing market is recovering.

Apple increased to a 4-week high of 156.31
Hermes International increased to a 5-week high of 1762
Microsoft increased to a 4-week high of 266.5
Amazon increased to a 4-week high of 98
Intel increased to a 4-week high of 28.2
Visa decreased to a 10-week low of 212.49