2023/03/12 (188) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Rain of fire over Wuhledar in south-eastern Ukraine.
What looks like fireworks is a devastating weapon: the mobile phone video is said to show a Russian attack with incendiary ammunition.

After months of heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine, both warring parties are now complaining about a lack of ammunition. In the battle for the largely destroyed town of Bakhmut, the Russian attackers around the Wagner mercenary troop called for supplies, as did the defenders. Over the weekend, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba asked Germany directly for ammunition. Despite all the complaints, the fighting continued with undiminished severity. According to British experts, most of the east of Bakhmut is now under Russian control. However, the city does not want to give up Kiev. In a phone call with US Chief of Staff Mark Milley, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zalushnyi urged new ammunition and technology. In addition, the anti-aircraft defense of his country must be strengthened, he said according to official information. Foreign Minister Kuleba told the “Bild am Sonntag” that the lack of ammunition was the “number one” problem in the fight against the Russian occupiers. “Germany could really help more with ammunition. With artillery ammunition.”DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Worries about the US financial system continue to grip Wall Street.
After a brief attempt to stabilize in early trading, the most important indices continued their recent slide on Friday and each closed more than one percent in the red. Fears of loan defaults in the banking sector had increased again recently after efforts to rescue the ailing Silicon Valley Bank had failed for the time being. Against this background, positive impetus from the most recent labor market report fizzled out.

Equity investors will continue to need a thick skin in the coming days. Not only because spring is a long time coming, but also because groundbreaking decisions are pending that affect interest rate concerns, which have recently increased again. The pivotal point for the financial markets are the US consumer prices due on Tuesday and the next interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.Forex
Sterling Rises Further from Over 3-Month Low
Euro Recovers from 2-Month Low

10Y Bond Yield
Investors Rush to Safety of Government Bonds

Commodities
Brent Heads for Sharp Weekly Decline

Stock Markets
European Stocks End 1.5% Lower
Hang Seng Erases 2023 Gains
China Stocks Drop for 5th Session

Sterling Rises Further from Over 3-Month Low
The British pound extended gains above $1.20, moving further away from an over three-month low of $1.18 touched on March 8th, as investors weighed mixed economic data out of the UK and the US against the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. Data showed Britain’s economy expanded 0.3% in January, more than expected, despite a contraction in manufacturing. In the US, employment data showed a stronger-than-expected jobs growth in February, while the wage increase came in slightly below forecasts.

Euro Recovers from 2-Month Low
The euro rose back above $1.06 after touching $1.05 on March 8th, which was the weakest level since January 6th, as investors weighed mixed employment data out of the US. The latest jobs report showed the US economy added 311 thousand jobs in February, easily beating market expectations of 205 thousand, while the wage growth missed expectations and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 3.6% from January’s 50-year low of 3.4%.Investors Rush to Safety of Government Bonds
Major sovereign bonds rallied on Friday as investors grew worried about a Fed-induced global recession and the health of the banking sector. California-based SVB Financial Group said yesterday that it was issuing new shares to bolster its capital position after a significant loss on its investment portfolio. SVB’s troubles came on the heels of the collapse of Silvergate Capital Corp. as the crypto industry’s breakdown sapped its financial stability.

Brent Heads for Sharp Weekly Decline
Brent crude futures traded near $81 per barrel on Friday and were set to drop more than 5% this week, weighed down by fears that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further to combat inflation, increasing recessionary risks that could dampen energy demand.

China Stocks Drop for 5th Session
The Shanghai Composite fell 1.37% to close at 3,230 while the Shenzhen Component dropped 1.19% to 11,443 on Friday, sliding for the fifth straight session and tracking a bank-led selloff on Wall Street overnight amid concerns that higher interest rates are pressuring bank balance sheets due to borrower defaults. The benchmark indexes also posted sharp weekly losses, weighed down during the period by a disappointing growth target for China set at the annual National People’s Congress over the weekend.

Hang Seng Erases 2023 Gains
Equities in Hong Kong tanked 605.82 points or 3.04% to end at 19,319.92 on Friday, its lowest close in 11 weeks, retreating for the fourth session while tumbling around 6% weekly, amid a sharp drop in US stock equities after Wall Street sold off Thursday ahead of NFP data and as worries mounted that the Fed funds rate will end up surging higher than expected. The Hang Seng gave up its gains for the year, as the MSCI China Index plunged over 16% from this year’s top.

European Stocks End 1.5% Lower
European shares closed 1.5% lower on Friday, as investors weighed signs of stress in the US banking system against US jobs data. The losses were led by financials, with Europe’s banking index falling 3.9% and booking its largest daily decline since early June, after tech lender SVB Financial announced a capital raising to shore up its balance sheet due to declining deposits from its customers.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Bitcoin fell below 20000 on Saturday and has recovered splendidly. Like a ball which were pushed under water. What could also happen to the DAX at 15000 this week. It seems like that the price action will get more as usually volatile this week, until the market, most financial market particpants, can limit the effects of the SVB collapse!

What happened?
In the US, the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed.
In addition, the New York Signature Bank will also be wound up, in the enxt days. The Silicon Valley Bank was one of the most important money houses for start-up financing in the USA. The start-ups had parked large deposits with the bank in recent years, but now had to liquidate them faster than expected in view of the rising interest rates in the USA. In order to be able to continue to provide customers with money, the bank wanted to collect liquid funds through an emergency capital increase. But the attempt to collect fresh money from investors by issuing new shares caused further uncertainty. And that`s why on Thursday last week alone, SVB shares collapsed by a good 60%. So that after this price slide, the shares were suspended from trading on Friday and the bank was placed under state control. The US authorities also closed Signature Bank in New York on Sunday. The bank was the only remaining bank with large crypto businesses after Silvergate Capital went bust last week before.

We`re experiencing the shadowside of the turnaround in interest rates. But blaming the us monetary policy for this misses the target. Because central banks can only fight the symptoms; and hope that fiscal policies will become more restrictive. Because that’s where the rub is buried.  Joe Biden, with his green economic policy, has dug the us consumer and/or us taxpayer in a monetary material pit under the guise of a liberal democracy; that us taxpayers and/or us consumers will not be able to get out of; except only with growth and/or also restrictive fiscal policy…On the left are the current prices of our open 4XSetUps Trading Capabilities,
and/or under a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                  TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long           ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long           EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/01/09 14150 16300 12586
long           XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
long           CME:BTC1! 2023/02/13 21710 27365 18615
short           TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
long           TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%

However,
US Stocks turn lower on SVB Collapse on friday,
while Treasury Yields hold decline after NFP as Dollar edges lower after Mixed Payrolls

The major US indices shed more than 1% in the afternoon trading on Friday as investors were monitoring the situation around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and digested the latest jobs numbers. On Friday, the Californian bank has been closed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation which has taken control of its deposits. Earlier, the run on deposits doomed the tech-focused lender’s share sale to shore up its balance sheet amid losses from bond sales.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below 3.7% on Friday, the lowest in a month, as investors digested a batch of labor market data for February. Non-farm payrolls totaled 311,000 in the period, well above market estimates of 205,000 and in line with other hot data this week that confirms the persistent tightness in the US labor market. Still, the unemployment rate edged 0.2 percentage points higher while labor income slowed down, suggesting the job market could be starting to feel the effects of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The dollar index weakened over 1% to around 104 on Friday as investors digested the labor market report. The US economy added 311K jobs in February, way more than expected, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 3.6% while wage growth slowed. Earlier in the week, the dollar hit more than a 3-month high of 105.5 after Fed Chair Powell told the US Congress that the ultimate level of interest rates could be higher than anticipated in light of strong economic data and that the central bank would be prepared to increase the pace of tightening if needed.

Focus on the 20000 mark in Bitcoin and/or 15000 in the DAX

For better or for worse, these are likely to be the most important price action zones for our 4XsetUps this week. It’s going to be a very volatile week in the US in terms of price action with lots of inflation data to be released. But more about that in the next D2D Affiliate Financial Online Newspaper Edition.