2023/03/08 (186) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Massive rocket attacks on Ukraine – Violent explosions and power outages

Heavy rocket fire was reported from numerous cities across Ukraine on Thursday night, including Kiev.
Residents of the capital reported a violent explosion noise on social networks. Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed strikes in the southern district of Holosiiv on Telegram. He also announced that around 15 percent of citizens were temporarily cut off from the power supply. Authorities also reported Russian attacks on power plants and power outages in the southern Odessa region and in Kharkiv in the east of the country.

“As a result of massive rocket attacks, an object of regional energy infrastructure was hit and a residential building was damaged,” wrote Odessa military governor Maxym Marchenko. In Kharkiv, Governor Oleh Synyehubov spoke of a total of around 15 attacks on his area. Air alert has been declared across the country. For more than a year, Ukraine has been defending itself against a war of aggression ordered by Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin. Again and again, Russia had hit the neighboring country with wide-ranging rocket fire and also specifically attacked the Ukrainian energy infrastructure.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Jerome Powell’s rhetoric was sharper and clearer in his Senate statement than Wall Street had expected.

If the economic data in February turns out to be as hot as in the previous month, larger rate hikes are likely again. Based on the CME’s Fed Watch tool, there’s a 77% chance of an equal 50 basis point hike. A week ago the probability was 27%. The probability of a 50 basis point hike in May has also risen from 30% to around 65%. A rate peak of 5.64% is now being priced in. At almost 110 basis points, the yield curve between the 2- and 10-year US Treasury bonds is the most inverted it has been since 2007. Along with the rising yields, the US dollar index is also rising at the expense of the stock market. Precisely because of Powell’s words, the eyes are all the more focused on the labor market data due on Friday. If more than 300,000 jobs were created in February, government bond yields should continue to rise, along with the US dollar. Should the data come in below this level, equities should breathe a sigh of relief. As weak as Wall Street was yesterday, the reaction was comparatively mild compared to the bond market.Forex 10Y Bond Yields Commodities Stock Markets

EURUSD Hits 8-Week Low US10Y Holds Below 4% Brent Crude Falls 1% Asian Stocks Mostly Decline
DXY Hovers At 3-Month Highs European Shares Slightly Up After Subdued Session
Dow Falls Nearly 200 Points

EURUSD Hits 8-Week Low
The euro depreciated to $1.05, its weakest level since January 6th, as investors rushed for the dollar amid signs of potential acceleration of the policy tightening pace from the US Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told US lawmakers that the central bank might raise interest rates more than expected following the release of hotter inflation figures and a tight labor market.

DXY Hovers At 3-Month Highs
The dollar index held above 105.5 on Wednesday, hovering at its highest levels in three months as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered a more hawkish outlook on monetary policy. Powell warned that the ultimate level of interest rates could be higher in light of stronger-than-expected economic data. He also said the central bank would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes if needed.

US10Y Holds Below 4%
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note bottomed around 4%, remaining marginally below the three-month high of 4.1% touched on March 2nd as investors assessed the pace of future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The latest ADP and JOLTs Job figures report showed a still-tight US labor market, underpinning convictions that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening may be far from over. On the policy side, Fed Chairman Powell stated that recent hot economic data might force the central bank to increase interest rates more aggressively and that the terminal rate may be higher than anticipated.

Brent Crude Falls 1%Brent crude futures dropped 1% below $83 per barrel on Wednesday, extending losses for a second session after EIA data pointed to persistently sluggish demand, which exacerbated worries about more aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve denting economic growth. US crude oil inventories fell by 1.694 million barrels in the week ended March 3rd, compared with market expectations of a 0.395 million barrels increase.

Asian Stocks Mostly Decline
Asian equity markets mostly fell on Wednesday, tracking losses on Wall Street overnight as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the central bank would be prepared to move faster and that interest rates could peak higher if data warranted. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said the central bank is closer to reaching a point where it will be appropriate to pause interest rate increases as monetary policy has become restrictive. In Japan, data showed that the country posted a record current account deficit in January as stubbornly high energy costs pushed up import bills. Shares in Australia, South Korea, Hong Kong and mainland China declined, while Japanese shares edged higher.

European Shares Slightly Up After Subdued Session
European stocks ended Wednesday’s session slightly higher, with the STOXX 600 gaining 0.1% and Germany’s DAX 40 adding 0.5% at 15,632 points. Markets tried to recover from their steepest one-day fall in nearly two weeks, as investors weighed the prospect of more aggressive rate hikes in the US against a batch of corporate and economic news. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told US lawmakers that the central bank might need to raise interest rates more than expected after data showed inflation came in above forecasts and the jobs market remained strong.

Dow Falls Nearly 200 Points
The Dow Jones lost almost 200 points on Wednesday, as hot employment data reinforced the view of a higher-for-longer outlook for interest rates. The latest ADP and JOLTs Job figures report showed a still-tight US labor market, underpinning convictions that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening may be far from over. On the policy side, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the central bank would likely need to raise rates more than expected in response to recent hotter-than-expected employment and inflation data. The Chair added that the size of the next interest rate increases is dependent on upcoming jobs and inflation data. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were little changed.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Bitcoin dropped more than 4% to around $22,400 on 2023/03/03, a level not seen in more than two weeks, as mounting worries about the fallout of crypto-focused US bank Silvergate Capital sent shockwaves through crypto markets. Will the 20000 price action area in the BITCOIN Future hold and/or the 100 points in the DXY Future. That`s the main question, i have about the price action, for this march`23! And/Or of course, will the US10Y Yield climbe above 4%. Because while the DXY together with the US Yield Curve has been increasing in price since 2021 and/or 2022, by the way with the oil price action, where we´re meanwhile long back again, BTCUSD has become cheaper rapidly! Which is self-explanatory, because since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008, we have finally been able to place interest securieties back again.

That’s the basic scenario as far as the price action goes, which interests me on a daily basis. And/Our 4XSetUps also operate around this basis questions. And that please always in connection with the current as well as expected us inflation; which like a cancer is forcing the us economy to stagnate. Which will also have political consequences in the usa: one way or the other! Because more and more Americans are remembering in 2023 how peacefully and without inflation usa had grown under Donald J. Trump! What will be decided politically in the USA in 2024. Today, however, nothing directly has (not) anything to do with the price action on the financial market today.
But more on that elsewhere…

This calendar week we will tighten the reins a bit. Because the market is bubbling. That`s why is the main focus on the DAX Future; especially around the 15.000 points price action. This is a significant area. Because the 15000 points are an high number; at there the DAX Future historically was not traded so often. From this point of view it could may have some sell pressure around this proce action zone. Because bulls, like me, became cold feets. So stay aware and/or gi long/shirt, if you`re a scalper, intraday trader around the 15000 points mark. But all in alll, I`m pretty optimistic realistic for higher points in the DAX Future. That`s why we remain long in the DAX Future until the end of this year 2023…

Here an short overview
about all our open 4XSetUps…

since entry target stop TradingView

23/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935 ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD
23/01/09 14150 16300 12586 EUREX:FDAX1!
23/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30 XETR:ADS
23/02/13 21710 27365 19575 CME:BTC1!
23/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30 TVC:UKOIL
23/03/03 4.79% TVC:US01Y

However,
Wall Street Ends Mixed Today

The Dow Jones closed 58 points lower on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, after Powell’s remarks in the past two days and hot employment data that reinforced the view of a higher-for-longer outlook for interest rates. The latest ADP and JOLTs Job figures report showed a still-tight US labor market, underpinning convictions that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening may be far from over. On the policy side, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the central bank would likely need to raise rates more than expected in response to recent hotter-than-expected employment and inflation data. The Chair added that the size of the next interest rate increases is dependent on upcoming jobs and inflation data. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were little changed. Among single stocks, Tesla fell for a third day, and was down 3% after Berenberg downgraded the stock to “hold”.