2023/03/07 (185) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

The Russian leadership wants to continue the battle for the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, which has been raging for months, with undiminished severity.

“The liberation of Artemovsk (Russian name of Bakhmut) continues,” said Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
The 67-year-old justified the insistence on the costly offensive by taking the city and breaking through the Ukrainian defense lines in depth. The Ukrainian leadership had previously rejected alleged plans to withdraw from the embattled city. Both sides report high losses of the opposing war party. According to Shoigus, the number of Ukrainian deaths and injuries has recently increased significantly.

“In February alone they (the casualties) increased by 40 percent and amounted to more than 11,000 soldiers,” the minister claimed. Ukraine does not give its own death toll. Minister Shoigu added that NATO’s arms deliveries would not help Ukraine to victory. The Ukrainian leadership previously decided to stick to Bakhmut’s defense. The city, which had a good 70,000 inhabitants before the war, has been the subject of fierce fighting for months. It is now mostly destroyed.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

In the run-up to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statement of accounts due at 4 p.m. CEST, this morning is causing caution.

Be that as it may, the odds are that the rhetoric will be less harsh than feared. Even if we should see a positive reaction from Wall Street as a result, the Friday pre-opening jobs report will capture the enthusiasm. In this case, the shot can undoubtedly go both ways. In the event of falling yields and a weaker US dollar, the bear market rally could take the S&P 500 as high as 4150, Morgan Stanley says. JP Morgan, on the other hand, remains negative this morning and fears a continuation of the bear market.

For 12 months 5%; only gambling addicts and/or greedy stock market gamblers do not accept the current offer!
And that it’s finally back, since the disaster at Lehman Brothers Bank in 2008. That’s why we don’t care about the stock market at the moment; although I prefer to deal with him, and also with individual stocks, than with the us yield curve and the us dollar.
But right now it’s the way it is – both in New York and/or in Chicago…Forex 10Y Bond Yields Commodities Stock Markets

UAUDUSD Weakens After RBA Decision AUD10Y Falls as RBA Softens Hawkish Outlook Oil Prices Hold Steady Dow Sheds On Powell’s Comments
DXY Muted Ahead of Powell Testimony European Shares Tread Water

Australian Dollar Weakens After RBA Decision
The Australian dollar fell toward $0.67, sliding back to its weakest levels in two months after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike and tempered its hawkish guidance on policy. The RBA has now lifted the cash rate for the 10th straight meeting, bringing borrowing costs to an almost 11-year high of 3.6%.

Dollar Muted Ahead of Powell Testimony
The dollar index was subdued around 104.2 on Tuesday as investors cautiously awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday for further guidance on the central bank’s tightening plans. Investors also looked ahead to the February jobs report on Friday that could influence how aggressive the Fed will need to be in the upcoming meetings.

Australian Bond Yield Falls as RBA Softens Hawkish Outlook
The yield on the Australian 10-year government bond eased further to 3.7%, down from 3.937% touched on March 3rd, which was among the highest values since the beginning of January. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate 25 basis points to the highest in more than a decade at 3.60%, but softened its hawkish guidance on policy.

China 10Y Bond Yield Hits 8-week Low
China 10 Year Government Bond Yeld decreased to a 8-week low of 2.889%

Oil Prices Hold SteadyBrent crude futures stabilized around $86 per barrel on Tuesday as investors weighed worries about limited spare capacity in the market against uncertainty over Russian supplies and Chinese demand recovery. Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth said at a conference in Houston that the world is now more vulnerable to any unexpected supply disruption as a squeeze on Russian energy flows came at a time of limited oil inventories and supply swings. On the demand side, China’s decision to set a lower-than-expected economic growth and customs data showing a decline in crude imports during January and February fuelled speculation that the reopening of the world’s second-largest oil consumer would not spur demand as initially thought. Investors also took note of reports about a growing rift between two of OPEC’s biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, sparking fears of a crack in the cartel’s policy which could lead to more supplies.

European Shares Tread Water Ahead of Powell
European stocks traded flat to lower Tuesday ahead of the highly-anticipated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will likely provide further cues on the US central bank’s policy path. Meanwhile, investors have also digested hawkish remarks by ECB board member Robert Holzmann as he called for four further 50-basis-point interest rate increases to bring inflation back to target. The bloc’s central bank had already pledged to deliver another half a percentage point increase on March 16th.

Wall Street Sheds on Powell’s Comments
The Dow closed 574 points or 1.7% lower on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 shed 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, after Powell’s hawkish remarks fueled fears of a larger rate hike. Powell warned that the central bank is ready to speed up the pace of tightening as the latest data have come in stronger than expected in prepared testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. He acknowledged that the terminal level of interest rates might be higher than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note topped 5%, a level not seen since 2007. The market movement came in tandem with an uptick in Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, enough to spook investors away from tech and other high-growth stocks. In corporate news, Meta Platforms lost 0.2% after it was reported that the tech company was preparing to shed thousands more employees.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Bitcoin dropped more than 4% to around $22,400 on 2023/03/03, a level not seen in more than two weeks, as mounting worries about the fallout of crypto-focused US bank Silvergate Capital sent shockwaves through crypto markets. Will the 20000 price action area in the BITCOIN Future hold and/or the 100 points in the DXY Future. That`s the main question, i have about the price action, for this march`23! And/Or of course, will the US10Y Yield climbe above 4%. Because while the DXY together with the US Yield Curve has been increasing in price since 2021 and/or 2022, by the way with the oil price action, where we´re meanwhile long back again, BTCUSD has become cheaper rapidly! Which is self-explanatory, because since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008, we have finally been able to place interest securieties back again.

That’s the basic scenario as far as the price action goes, which interests me on a daily basis. And/Our 4XSetUps also operate around this basis questions. And that please always in connection with the current as well as expected us inflation; which like a cancer is forcing the us economy to stagnate. Which will also have political consequences in the usa: one way or the other! Because more and more Americans are remembering in 2023 how peacefully and without inflation usa had grown under Donald J. Trump! What will be decided politically in the USA in 2024. Today, however, nothing directly has (not) anything to do with the price action on the financial market today.
But more on that elsewhere…

This calendar week we will tighten the reins a bit. Because the market is bubbling. That`s why is the main focus on the DAX Future; especially around the 15.000 points price action. This is a significant area. Because the 15000 points are an high number; at there the DAX Future historically was not traded so often. From this point of view it could may have some sell pressure around this proce action zone. Because bulls, like me, became cold feets. So stay aware and/or gi long/shirt, if you`re a scalper, intraday trader around the 15000 points mark. But all in alll, I`m pretty optimistic realistic for higher points in the DAX Future. That`s why we remain long in the DAX Future until the end of this year 2023…

Here an short overview
about all our open 4XSetUps…

since entry target stop TradingView

23/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935 ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD
23/01/09 14150 16300 12586 EUREX:FDAX1!
23/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30 XETR:ADS
23/02/13 21710 27365 19575 CME:BTC1!
23/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30 TVC:UKOIL
23/03/03 4.79% TVC:US01Y

However,
Wall Street Sheds on Powell’s Comments

The Dow closed 574 points or 1.7% lower on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 shed 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, after Powell’s hawkish remarks fueled fears of a larger rate hike. Powell warned that the central bank is ready to speed up the pace of tightening as the latest data have come in stronger than expected in prepared testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. He acknowledged that the terminal level of interest rates might be higher than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note topped 5%, a level not seen since 2007. The market movement came in tandem with an uptick in Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, enough to spook investors away from tech and other high-growth stocks. In corporate news, Meta Platforms lost 0.2% after it was reported that the tech company was preparing to shed thousands more employees.