2023/03/06 (184) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Bitter battle for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine
For the time being, Kiev wants to hold on to the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which has been fought over for months, despite being almost completely encircled. This was announced by the Ukrainian government on Monday after a briefing between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Commander-in-Chief Valery Salushnyy and the head of the land forces Olexander Syrskyy. The two military officers spoke out in favor of “the continuation of the defense operation and the further strengthening of our positions in Bakhmut,” it said. According to observers, the announcement could be a reaction to rumors published by the “Bild” newspaper, among others, about a rift between Zelenskyy and Saluschnyj about the procedure in Bakhmut. For months there has been fighting around Bakhmut, where around 74,000 people lived before the war. The city, in the ruins of which, according to official figures, around 5,000 civilians are still holding out, was almost completely destroyed. The strategic value of Bakhmut after the Russian troops were expelled from the Kharkiv region is low.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

The leading US index, the Dow Jones Industrial, only rose slightly after its strong previous week. Otherwise, movements on Wall Street remained within narrow limits on Monday after the recently fallen yields in bond trading picked up again a little. Investors were cautious ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. In the end, the Dow gained 0.12 percent to 33,431.44 points. The market-wide S&P 500 went up 0.07 percent to 4048.42 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.10 percent to 12,302.48 points.

As Powell speaks to the Banking Committee, market players should be alert to any nuances in monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve, wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid. Because two economic highlights are due on Friday with the labor market report for February and in the coming week with consumer prices, Powell is unlikely to be overly optimistic.Forex
USDCNY Eases on Modest GDP Target

10Y Bond Yields
Japan 10Y Bond Yield Steady Ahead of BoJ Meeting, Powell Testimony

Commodities
Silver Rebounds from 3-Month Low

Stock Markets
MOEX Jumps to 5-Month High
European Stocks Little Changed on Monday
CAC 40 Hits All-time High
FTSE 100 Closes Lower

USDCNY Eases on Modest GDP Target
The offshore yuan weakened past 6.9 per dollar as Beijing disappointed markets by setting a modest economic growth target for China this year. Premier Li Keqiang announced a GDP target of 5% for 2023 at the annual National People’s Congress on Sunday, lower than markets anticipated. Investors now look ahead to Chinese trade data on Tuesday and inflation data on Thursday for fresh cues about the world’s second-largest economy. Last week, the yuan gained more than 1% as stronger-than-expected domestic economic data supported optimism over the country’s recovery.

Japan 10Y Bond Yield Steady Ahead of BoJ Meeting, Powell Testimony
The yield on the 10-year JGB held steady at 0.5% in March, as investors awaited Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s final policy meeting later this week. Japan’s central bank is seen maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy, even as inflation continued to exceed its 2.0% target. Data last week showed inflation rate in Tokyo eased for the first time in more than a year.Silver Rebounds from 3-Month Low
Silver futures rose to $21 per ounce, rebounding from the three-month low of $20.6 as investors continued to assess the latest economic data and signals from Federal Reserve officials for hints on the potential peak of interest rates. While some members scaled back the pace of desired rate hikes in the coming meetings, hot economic data drove other members to call for further increases.

MOEX Jumps to 5-Month High
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1% up at 2,294 on Monday, extending gains from the prior week to its highest since September with strong support from banks and energy producers. Financial shares jumped by 2.2% on average and extended this year’s rally to jump 14.2% year-to-date, supported by hopes that the sector will consolidate after Russia’s major banks were excluded from the SWIFT payment system last year.

European Stocks Little Changed on Monday
European equity markets closed little changed on Monday, as a 1.8% gain across travel and leisure stocks was offset by an over 2.5% loss in mining shares. Domestically, the German DAX rose 0.5% to 15,654, the highest since January 2022. The market focus shifted to Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony on Tuesday and job data on Friday, which will likely dictate the direction of the US central bank for the near future.

CAC 40 Hits All-time High
The CAC 40 touched the 7,400 mark for the first time, helped by gains in luxury stocks such as LVMH, Kering and Hermes International despite China setting an economic growth target at about 5%, towards the lower end of expectations. At the same time, investors’ focus shifted to the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Tuesday and the February employment report on Friday.

FTSE 100 Closes Lower
Equities in London came under selling pressure on Monday, with the FTSE 100 benchmark closing around the 7,920 mark, dragged by heavy losses in the material sector. Investors digested the implications of China’s growth goal of around 5%, which put pressure on commodity prices amid concerns about weak demand and prompted bearish bets on the export-oriented FTSE 100.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Bitcoin dropped more than 4% to around $22,400 on 2023/03/03, a level not seen in more than two weeks, as mounting worries about the fallout of crypto-focused US bank Silvergate Capital sent shockwaves through crypto markets. Will the 20000 price action area in the BITCOIN Future hold and/or the 100 points in the DXY Future. That`s the main question, i have about the price action, for this march`23! And/Or of course, will the US10Y Yield climbe above 4%. Because while the DXY together with the US Yield Curve has been increasing in price since 2021 and/or 2022, by the way with the oil price action, where we´re meanwhile long back again, BTCUSD has become cheaper rapidly! Which is self-explanatory, because since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008, we have finally been able to place interest securieties back again.

That’s the basic scenario as far as the price action goes, which interests me on a daily basis. And/Our 4XSetUps also operate around this basis questions. And that please always in connection with the current as well as expected us inflation; which like a cancer is forcing the us economy to stagnate. Which will also have political consequences in the usa: one way or the other! Because more and more Americans are remembering in 2023 how peacefully and without inflation usa had grown under Donald J. Trump! What will be decided politically in the USA in 2024. Today, however, nothing directly has (not) anything to do with the price action on the financial market today.
But more on that elsewhere…

This calendar week we will tighten the reins a bit. Because the market is bubbling. That`s why is the main focus on the DAX Future; especially around the 15.000 points price action. This is a significant area. Because the 15000 points are an high number; at there the DAX Future historically was not traded so often. From this point of view it could may have some sell pressure around this proce action zone. Because bulls, like me, became cold feets. So stay aware and/or gi long/shirt, if you`re a scalper, intraday trader around the 15000 points mark. But all in alll, I`m pretty optimistic realistic for higher points in the DAX Future. That`s why we remain long in the DAX Future until the end of this year 2023…

Here an short overview
about all our open 4XSetUps…

since entry target stop TradingView

23/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935 ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD
23/01/09 14150 16300 12586 EUREX:FDAX1!
23/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30 XETR:ADS
23/02/13 21710 27365 19575 CME:BTC1!
23/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30 TVC:UKOIL
23/03/03 4.79% TVC:US01Y

However,
Wall Street Ends Mixed on Monday

The Dow Jones closed 40 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 finished slightly above the flat line and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1% as Treasury yields came back higher putting pressure on stocks. Meantime, investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy ahead of a busy week of economic data and speeches from the Federal Reserve. All eyes are on this week’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate and House committees after recent hot economic data fueled bets for more interest rate hikes this year. The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will also provide a clearer picture of the labor market while giving further insight into the direction of the Federal Reserve’s rate path. On the corporate side, Apple climbed 1.8% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the iPhone maker with a “buy” rating.