2023/03/01 (181) Column

May The Price Action
Be With Us!


Of course, I have the claim that each of my formulated 4XSetUp Trading Capability does not fall below the stop price, but rather reaches the price target. I can’t and won’t guarantee that! Which, by the way, no one can do if he and/or she operate truly seriously on the financial market about price action. Since the future is not yet written; but rather negotiated by all financial market participants involved. Nevertheless, I hope that each of my loyal readers, in every column, in every DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper Edition, learns at least something new. So that the time of reading is worth it, at least intellectually, every trading day! 

With reference to the growing number of crises, many of the problems of 2022 will also determine the new year 2023: The war, the energy crisis, inflation, trade tensions and even Corona are expected to have a more or less significant impact on the global economy again. So I reckon with a flat recession, but in different shades! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%.

However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. In China, on the other hand, economic activity is likely to have fallen to almost unprecedented low levels due to the latest corona virus measures. So expect a recession that won’t feel that bad; because the inflation worries, the war shock in Ukraine, let alone the shutdown of entire economies, was much more emotional for us humans! Osn`t it? Gowever, that`s why we are sure to set a new record for the range of information material this year, as far as the price action on the financial market is concerned…
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News MediaFighting for the strategically important city of Bakhmut continues in eastern Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian military, the city of once 70,000 inhabitants in the Donetsk region is under Russian fire. The armed forces in Kyiv also said on Wednesday that snipers shot dead a group of Russian reconnaissance officers who were trying to advance towards Ukrainian positions during the night. Seven Russians were killed and three injured. The information could not be independently verified. Only a few thousand civilians remain in Bachmut today.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar said on television on Tuesday evening that holding the city was not a political decision, but a strategic decision. According to them, reinforcements have been sent. Professional and numerically strong units of the Wagner private army fought in the Bakhmut area, Maljar said. «The enemy’s casualties are very high. Our fighters can destroy up to 80 percent of terrorists.”

The Ukrainian military leadership had previously described the situation around Bakhmut as extremely tense. As a result, there is increasing speculation that Ukrainian troops will withdraw. Ukrainian military bloggers reported Russian advances north and northwest of the city. Bachmut has been contested since late summer. The Russian war of aggression against the neighboring country has been going on for more than a year.

Bakhmut is the main part of the line of defense between the cities of Siversk and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, established after the Russian conquest of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk. If the city falls, the route to the major cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will open up for Russian troops. With this, a complete conquest of the Donetsk region is approaching.

According to Ukrainian military observers, a hose just over four kilometers wide west of the city is being controlled by its own troops. Through these go the heavily shelled connections to the west. In all other directions, Russian units are pressuring the Ukrainians.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

We saw a lot of reluctance on Wall Street ahead of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index due at 4pm GMT. If the data comes in above targets, and in particular the inflation component, government bond yields could rise again and weigh on Wall Street. Regardless, some results this morning are disappointing. Department store giant Kohl’s reports very poor results and outlook, with the stock down around 8%. Rivian shares are suffering from missed deliveries and reduced production prospects. At Tesla, the focus today is on the Analyst Day. The Model Y will probably get a facelift. Musk could also unveil plans for a new and cheaper Model A or Model 2. HP’s stocks got off to a good start. The results were slightly above targets, with the outlook for 2023 confirmed. The hardware store giant Lowe’s can also provide better numbers compared to Home Depot. The shares of Chinese tech stocks tend to be significantly firmer before the market. The February Purchasing Managers’ Index was significantly better in the industrial and service sectors.

Forex
Sterling Holds Above $1.20
Euro Strengthens as Inflation in Europe Rises
Dollar Struggles for Traction
Chinese Yuan Jumps on Robust Data

10Y Bond Yield
French 10-Year Bond Yield Rises to 11-Year High
Italian Bond Yields Climb Further
Germany 10-Year Bund Yield at 2011-Highs
Sweden 10Y Bond Yield Hits 9-1/2-year High
US 10-Year Treasury Yields Hovers Near 4%
Portugal 10Y Bond Yield Hits Near 6-year High

Commodities
Milk Hits 15-month Low
Cocoa Hits 26-month High
Sugar Holds Momentum on Tight Supply
Brent Crude Hovers Around $84
Rice Hits 10-week Low
Canola Hits 7-week High

Stock Markets
Hang Seng Soars More than 4% on Upbeat China DataStocks in Lebanon Hit All-time High
Stocks in Croatia Hit 11-year High
Turkey Stocks Continue to Rise
FTSE 100 Outperforms European Peers
Russian Stocks Jump to 5-Month HighR
European Shares Fall on Sticky Inflation Worries
US Stocks End Mixed on Wednesday

Forex
Sterling Holds Above $1.20
Euro Strengthens as Inflation in Europe Rises
Dollar Struggles for Traction
Chinese Yuan Jumps on Robust Data

Sterling Holds Above $1.20
The British pound held above $1.20 at the start of March, after depreciating more than 2% against the US dollar in February, its biggest monthly decline since the near 4% drop in September to record lows. Investors welcomed Britain’s agreement with the EU on post-Brexit trade that will smooth the way for trade between Northern Ireland and Britain, and will give lawmakers a greater say over the rules and regulations they follow from Brussel

Euro Strengthens as Inflation in Europe Rises
The euro kicked off the March month on a strong note, gaining nearly 1% to approach $1.069 as investors repositioned for further interest rate increases from the ECB. Fresh preliminary data for Germany showed inflation rate held at 8.7% last month, compared to forecasts of 8.5% while prices in both France and Spain also accelerated in February and more than initially anticipated.Dollar Struggles for Traction
The dollar weakened sharply against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, depreciating toward the 104 mark as money flowed into riskier currencies amid upbeat economic data in China and Europe. The yuan and the Australian and New Zealand dollars benefited from robust Chinese manufacturing data, while the euro enjoyed substantial gains after regional German price data added to inflation concerns.

Chinese Yuan Jumps on Robust Data
The offshore yuan appreciated to around 6.9 per dollar, recovering further from two-month lows as stronger-than-expected domestic economic data supported market optimism over China’s recovery. Official and private survey data showed that China’s manufacturing sector expanded more than expected in February as Asia’s largest economy dismantled strict Covid curbs, while the country’s services sector also posted solid growth. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China left its key lending rates unchanged for the sixth straight month at its February fixing, as widely expected. Globally, solid US economic data and hawkish remarks from US policymakers bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates to tame inflation, keeping downward pressure on the yuan.

10Y Bond Yields
French 10-Year Bond Yield Rises to 11-Year High
Italian Bond Yields Climb Further
Germany 10-Year Bund Yield at 2011-Highs
Sweden 10Y Bond Yield Hits 9-1/2-year High
US 10-Year Treasury Yields Hovers Near 4%
Portugal 10Y Bond Yield Hits Near 6-year High

French 10-Year Bond Yield Rises to 11-Year High
The yield on the French 10-year OAT surged to 3.2% in February, the highest since 2011, as the unexpected jump in consumer prices paired with strong economic data led investors to bet on prolonged monetary tightening cycles in the US and Europe. French inflation unexpectedly rose to 6.2% in February of 2022, equaling the 1985-record hit in October and tracking other increases in the currency bloc. On top of that, unemployment fell to an 11-year low during the period.

Italian Bond Yields Climb Further
The yield on the Italian 10-year BTP rose above 4.5% in early March, the highest since the start of the year, as expectations of aggressive monetary tightening from the ECB continued to pressure European bonds. Inflation in France and Spain unexpectedly accelerated in February. Meanwhile, price growth in Germany failed to slow and held close to its October peak, strengthening the ECB Council’s rhetoric about the prevalent upside risks.

Germany 10-Year Bund Yield at 2011-Highs
Germany’s 10-year bond yield extended gains to 2.7%, the highest since July 2011 after hotter-than-expected CPI prints reinforced expectations the ECB would need to raise rates further to combat inflation. Germany’s EU-harmonised consumer price index rose 9.3% in the 12 months to February, faster than the 9% expected by markets and higher than the 9% in January.

Sweden 10Y Bond Yield Hits 9-1/2-year High
Sweden 10 Year Government Bond Yeld increased to a 9-1/2-year high of 2.754%

US 10-Year Treasury Yields Hovers Near 4%
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, consolidated around 4%, its highest level in three months, as a batch of hot economic data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to a higher level and keep them restrictive for longer. Signs of persistent inflation and a still-tight labor market forced investors to reverse their views on the likely future path of interest rate rises, now pricing at least three more 25 basis point rate hikes this year and betting that interest rates will peak around 5.5% by June. Money markets also see the European Central Bank raising rates until at least February 2024, with a fully priced 4% ECB terminal rate.

Portugal 10Y Bond Yield Hits Near 6-year High
Portugal 10 Year Government Bond Yeld increased to a near 6-year high of 3.601%Commodities
Milk Hits 15-month Low
Cocoa Hits 26-month High
Sugar Holds Momentum on Tight Supply
Brent Crude Hovers Around $84
Rice Hits 10-week Low
Canola Hits 7-week High

Milk Hits 15-month Low
Milk decreased to a 15-month low of 17.77 USD/CWT

Cocoa Hits 26-month High
Cocoa increased to a 26-month high of 2831 USD/T

Sugar Holds Momentum on Tight Supply
Raw sugar futures in the US were above 20.5 cents per pound in early March, not far from the six-year high of 22.5 touched on February 27th amid expectations of tighter supply in the near term. Top producer Brazil confirmed the end of its tax exemption program for gasoline, raising demand for lower-taxed sugarcane ethanol in the country.

Brent Crude Hovers Around $84
Brent crude futures were trading around $84 per barrel on Wednesday as investors weighed prospects of a recovery in Chinese demand against a gloomy outlook for the US. Robust manufacturing and services activity data out of China supported prospects for a strong rebound in consumption.

Rice Hits 10-week Low
Rice decreased to a 10-week low of 16.635 USD/cwtCanola Hits 7-week High
Canola increased to a 7-week high of 851 CAD/T

Hang Seng Soars 4% on Upbeat China Data
Stocks in Lebanon Hit All-time High
Stocks in Croatia Hit 11-year High
Turkey Stocks Continue to Rise
FTSE 100 Outperforms European Peers
Russian Stocks Jump to 5-Month HighR
European Shares Fall on Inflation Worries
US Stocks End Mixed on Wednesday

Hang Seng Soars More than 4% on Upbeat China Data
Equities in Hong Kong surged 833.77 points or 4.21% to finish at over 1-week high of 20,619.71 on the first trading day of a new month, snapping six-day losses, after China’s economy showed a strong recovery in February following the removal of a zero-COVID policy recently.

Stocks in Lebanon Hit All-time High
Blom increased to an all-time high of 1640

Stocks in Croatia Hit 11-year High
CROBEX increased to a 11-year high of 2256

Turkey Stocks Continue to Rise
The Borsa Istanbul 100 index traded around 5300 in March, up almost 19% from a three-month low of 4,505 touched on February 7th when the benchmark index entered bear-market territory after a major earthquake that hit Turkey sent markets into turmoil, prompting the Turkish authorities to suspend trading for the following five days.

FTSE 100 Outperforms European Peers
Equities in London enjoyed some respite on Wednesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing above the 7,900 mark, driven by gains in the heavyweight materials and energy sectors.

Russian Stocks Jump to 5-Month HighR
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.2% higher at 2,280 on Wednesday, extending its strong momentum from recent sessions to its highest in five months, as strong economic data suggested that Russian companies can rebuild supply chains to adapt to Western sanctions.

European Shares Fall on Sticky Inflation Worries
European equity markets closed the 1st trading session of March on a weaker foot, with the STOXX 600 losing 0.8%.

US Stocks End Mixed on Wednesday
The Dow Jones finished marginally higher on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down roughly 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, as the rate-sensitive indexes were hurt by rising bond yields. The benchmark 10-year yield topped 4% and the 1Y Yield climbed above 5%.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

The Market is under pressure since two, three weeks!
The Market? Yes, the US WallStreet, in New York – the stock market.
But not the US Yield Curve, in Chicago, which is more expensive than years; than decades! At that is the crucial point; why the stock market is breathing out; last days, last weeks.

However,
we stay long in EURUSD, long in the DAX Future, and/or also (since the beginning of last week before) now long in the ADIDAS share & BITCOIN. And since last thursday, even last week, we`re back short in UKOIL also.

Nevertheless it itches me again to formulate a new 4XSetUp in the DOW Future. And that because i don`t realize a bullisg technical chart, right now. That`s why i will write a new long Technical Analysis 4XSetUp only if at least the technical picture looks bullish again. Because currently, at least in my personal subjective individual opinion, it still looks rather bearish in the short term. And that just before the upcoming US labor market data next week and/or much more the US inflationnumbers in the calendar week after next week. So I prefer to wait a little longer. Because going anti-cyclically long in the DOW Future, let alone in the NASDAQ Future, only because of the hope of worse than expected US labor market figures and/or lower than expected inflation numbers, is too speculative for me. That`s why the motto for this week, in relation to the DOW chart, is observe, analyze, and/or evaluate. And if you dare, you can get long in the DOW Future this week again. But at least I want to have a weekly candle in the plus in my back to go long again. That’s the minimum; even if it smells and/or tastes old school…