2023/02/19 (173) Column

The Greatest Potential `23
Is Likely To Be In Asia,
Especially In China


For many colleagues, the opening of China after the corona pandemic is the hottest story of 2023.
I would also like to go one step furtherr. And would like to point out that the entire continent has so far shown little recovery from the crisis. As an indicator for this, I take the tourist numbers, which in Asia are still 86 percent below the pre-Corona times, while in Europe and America it is only 26 to 35 percent.

Nevertheless, I focus on the USA!
Because I dealt with the USA, as far as the financial market is concerned, simply longer and/or much more intensively. But if you get a detailed overview of Asia, you will certainly find no less potential! If yes? Then send me your Trading Capabilities to my email address Devise2Day@gmail.com…
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Bloodbath in Bachmut – West wants defeat of Russian Goliath
Bavarian Prime Minister Söder: “Munich Security Conference is a meeting of the light side of power”
Soldiers in Bachmut ask for support

Bloodbath in Bachmut – West wants defeat of Russian Goliath

Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelenskyy has in dramatic words called on the West to provide further help in the fight against Russia. “Goliath has to lose,” Selenskyj said on Friday at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), to which he was connected. There is no alternative, the war against his country is not just about Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron assured Ukraine of resolute help in their speeches. Macron accused Russia of not only destabilizing Ukraine, but also states in Africa. Chancellor Scholz called on the allies to supply main battle tanks to Ukraine. Anyone who can do this should “really do it now,” said Scholz in front of the plenum. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and he would also promote this at the Munich conference. At the same time, Scholz emphasized that Germany had already helped Ukraine with twelve billion euros, more than any other country on the European continent. He committed to NATO’s two percent target for defense spending, but did not repeat earlier statements that Germany even wanted to spend more than two percent. Pistorius had raised this demand. The coalition is currently arguing about the 2024 budget.

Macron called the next few weeks “crucial” when it came to helping Ukraine. “The time is not ripe for dialogue with Russia,” he said, adding that Russia’s year-old invasion of its neighbor “must fail.” “We are ready today to intensify (our efforts). And we are ready for a prolonged conflict. This is the only way to bring Russia back to the negotiating table and create a lasting peace,” Macron said. So far, France has supplied significantly fewer weapons to Ukraine than Germany or Great Britain, for example. Scholz emphasized that western arms deliveries were in no way prolonging the war. “The opposite is the case,” he said. “Putin’s revisionism will not win,” added Scholz. At the same time, the Chancellor reiterated that the principle that every new step in arms aid had to be agreed with the partners would remain. “We will continue to maintain the balance between providing the best possible support for Ukraine and avoiding an unwanted escalation.” He is happy and grateful that US President Joe Biden and many other allies see it the same way.

Bavarian Prime Minister Söder:
“Munich Security Conference is a meeting of the light side of power”

Almost a year after the Russian attack on Ukraine, the raid dominated debates on the first day of the three-day conference, which brought together several dozen heads of state and government, foreign and defense ministers. “The MSC is a meeting of the light side of power,” said Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder about the event. He described the security conference as a sign of unity “against aggression, totalitarianism and authoritarian states”. MSC Chairman Christoph Heusgen also emphasized that the United States, Canada and Europe are moving closer together in view of the Russian threat. He had previously spoken of the largest US delegation ever to attend the security conference.

Soldiers in Bachmut ask for support

In Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers tasked with repelling a Russian advance on the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine have pleaded with the outside world for more weapons. “Give us more military equipment, more weapons, and we will deal with the Russian occupiers, we will destroy them,” said Dmytro, a soldier fighting near Bakhmut, which is being attacked by the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Almost a year after the invasion, Russian troops are stepping up their attacks in the east. Ukraine is planning a spring counteroffensive, for which it wants more, heavier, and longer-range weapons from its western allies.
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

The S&P 500 has been pretty much flat for at least three weeks, while the Nasdaq in particular has benefited from mostly solid results and outlook from the tech sector. Applied Materials, DoorDash, HubSpot, and DraftKings have not only beaten targets since yesterday’s close, they’ve also raised prospects. AutoNation and Deere are also reporting solid numbers, raising the outlook. What has been overshadowing Wall Street since yesterday is the steady rise in US Treasury yields, which have almost reached the 3.9% mark in the 10-year segment. As a result, the US dollar index is also trending higher. Both weigh on the equity side.

I dedicated the cover photo of today’s edition to the women foreign ministers at the Munich Security Conference. Anyone who knows me and has read my books knows that I am passionate about comparing monetary, material price action with an emotionally and/or sexually unsatisfied women’s shelter! That’s why I’ve dedicated my 6 books to all women i meet and had an influence in my life – and I hope that I’ll finally come to an agreement with my Bavarian publisher again this year 2023. Because let’s face it boys, men, market guys – we love nothing more than the price action than our women! Even if we hardly talk about it directly with each other – me too! Then rather sports and/or even just price action – and/or polics, of course! Therefore the most important and also the best training for understanding price action is the relationship between us men and our women! Not that we get lost in emotional alpha omega sadomasochism; let alone in a fetish non-hetrosexual woke culture…

Forex 10Y Government Bonds Stock Markets

Sterling Depreciates Below $1.2 UK 10-Year Bond Yield Rises to Over 1-Month High Asian Markets Sell Off
Dollar Hits 6-Week Highs on Hawkish Fed Bets German Bund Yield Moves Closer to 11-Year High MOEX Snaps Three-Day Slide
Euro Weakens Below $1.07 US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3.9% Again FTSE 100 Eases from Record
DXY Turns Positive after PPI Data European Stocks Fall to End Week
Wall Street Ends Mixed Amid Rates Worries

Forex
Sterling Depreciates Below $1.2
Dollar Hits 6-Week Highs on Hawkish Fed Bets
Euro Weakens Below $1.07
DXY Turns Positive after PPI Data

Sterling Depreciates Below $1.2
The British pound extended losses below $1.20, touching its weakest level since January 5th, as investors rushed for the dollar amid renewed bets of the US Federal Reserve sticking to its aggressive monetary policy tightening. At the same time, Britain’s softer-than-feared inflation rate eased tightening pressures from the Bank of England. The latest CPI report showed headline inflation slowed more than expected in January to 10.1%, moving further away from October’s 41-year high of 11.1%, but remaining well above the central bank’s target of 2%. UK policymakers raised interest rates to 4% this month, a 10th consecutive hike, and are expected to raise them just twice more to peak at 4.5% by June, with a risk that they stop earlier at 4.25%.

Dollar Hits 6-Week Highs on Hawkish Fed Bets
The dollar index strengthened above 104 on Friday, hitting its highest levels in six weeks as stronger-than-expected US economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials lifted the currency. US producer prices rose 0.7% month-over-month in January, the most in seven months and higher than market forecasts of 0.4% growth. Data also showed that weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she saw a “compelling economic case” for another 50 basis point rate hike. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also stated he would not rule backing a half-percentage point increase at the Fed’s March meeting. The dollar is currently up nearly 1% this week, on course to notch its third gain in a row.

Euro Weakens Below $1.07
The euro depreciated below $1.07, moving further away from a nine-month high of $1.1034 touched on February 2nd, as investors rushed for the dollar amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would stick to its hawkish monetary policy for longer after the recent PPI release pointed the price pressures remain elevated in the US. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is seen maintaining its aggressive policy tightening, despite signs that inflationary pressures may have peaked and recession is looming.

DXY Turns Positive after PPI Data
The dollar index turned positive and rose to above 104 on Thursday, approaching a 6-week high after stronger-than-expected producer price inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to extend its tightening cycle. US producer prices increased 0.7% month-over-month in January, the most in seven months and higher than market forecasts of 0.4%. Another report showed weekly claims edged down only marginally last week. Earlier this week, retail sales data highlighted the economy’s strength, suggesting the Federal Reserve has more room to hike rates.10Y Government Bonds
UK 10-Year Bond Yield Rises to Over 1-Month High
German Bund Yield Moves Closer to 11-Year High
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3.9% for First Time in Three Months

UK 10-Year Bond Yield Rises to Over 1-Month High
The yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt rose towards 3.6%, hovering around its highest level since January 10th, as strong economic data from the US aided bets that the Federal Reserve will stick to its aggressive tightening path. Data on Thursday showed a higher-than-expected increase in both US producer and core producer prices in January, and a drop in weekly jobless claims. Elsewhere, the Bank of England is seen raising interest rates at a slower pace this year than in 2022, amid signs inflationary pressures have peaked.

German Bund Yield Moves Closer to 11-Year High
Germany’s 10-year bond yield crossed 2.5%, moving towards an 11-year high of 2.569% hit on December 30th, as strong US economic data raised the chances of the US Federal Reserve sticking to its monetary tightening path. At the same time, remarks by European Central Bank officials dashed hopes of a quick end to the current tightening cycle. ECB President Lagarde reiterated the central bank would keep raising rates to slow down underlying price pressures, while ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane and fellow board member Fabio Panetta said the sharp increase in borrowing costs had yet to be fully felt by the economy.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3.9% for First Time in Three Months
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, topped 3.9%, a level not seen in three months, as investors adjust their portfolios for a higher terminal rate. Recent economic data showed the sharpest increase in producer prices in seven months in January, while another report showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, opening the door to further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This slew of data followed a blockbuster retail sales report and a hotter-than-expected CPI reading. Speeches from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and his Cleveland counterpart also supported the idea that the US central bank will have to continue to raise interest rates to cool the economy.Stock Markets
Asian Markets Sell Off
MOEX Snaps Three-Day Slide
FTSE 100 Eases from Record, Still Posts Weekly Gains
European Stocks Fall to End Week
Wall Street Ends Mixed Amid Rates Worries

Asian Markets Sell Off
Asian bourses came under heavy selling pressure on Friday, as inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve have been a mounting headwind for stocks. The Hang Seng index led losses among the region’s major markets by losing more than 1% to close around 20,720, dragged by rate-sensitive technology stocks. In China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% down at 3,224. Elsewhere in Asia, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.7% to end at 27,513, while South Korea’s Kospi fell 1% to 2,720. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia lost 0.9% to finish around 7,347 points, with RBA’s Lowe saying that further rate increases would be needed to tame sky-high inflation.

MOEX Snaps Three-Day Slide
Equities in Moscow snapped a three-day losing streak on Friday, with the ruble-based MOEX bouncing back to around 2,175 points, driven by gains in the metals & mining sector. Investors welcomed the remarks from the First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Chistyukhin about restoring the usual practice of paying dividends by financial organizations of the Russian Federation. Still, risk appetite is likely to remain subdued amid growing concerns about a new wave of sanctions. On the corporate side, GDR Globaltrans Inves ORD SHS and MMK were among the biggest gainers, up 1.1% and 1%, respectively. Still, The MOEX lost nearly 4% this week.

FTSE 100 Eases from Record, Still Posts Weekly Gains
Equities in London came under pressure on Friday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 pulling back from its record closing high to end below 8,000 points, dragged by energy and financials stocks. The shift in sentiment was triggered by hotter-than-expected US economic data, which investors believe gives the Federal Reserve more room to raise rates. On the data front, British retail sales unexpectedly rebounded by 0.5% over the previous month in January. In specific stock moves, Natwest Group and Lloyds Banking Group were among the biggest laggards, down roughly 6.5% and 4%, respectively. Still, the FTSE 100 index rallied 1.5% this week.

European Stocks Fall to End Week
European equity markets fell on Friday, as a strong jobless report and hotter-than-expected PPI data from the US revived fears of the Federal Reserve staying hawkish for longer. At the same time, Fed officials Loretta Mester and James Bullard called for additional interest rate hikes to combat inflation. Elsewhere, investors digested data showing producer inflation in Germany eased less than forecast in January to a 16-month low, while UK retail sales volumes unexpectedly rose by 0.5% in January thanks to sales promotions and lower fuel prices. On the corporate front, car maker Mercedes-Benz Group posted stronger revenue and better-than-forecast annual earnings, while Swiss chemicals company Sika AG reported a better-than-expected operating profit for 2022.

Wall Street Ends Mixed Amid Rates Worries
The Dow finished 130 points higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost nearly 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively, as investors worried about Fed’s larger rate hikes amid rising bond yields and inflation reports. Yields on 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds rose to November levels, weighing on sentiment. Also, Thursday data showed that producer prices hit the highest level in seven months, supporting larger rate hikes as inflation remains sticky. In addition, the number of new jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, indicating a hot labor market. Speeches from Fed officials also supported that the US central bank will have to keep raising interest rates to cool the economy. On the earnings front, Deere & Co prices climb 7.5% after the company’s quarterly report showed upbeat profit due to higher prices and strong demand. For the week, the Dow lost 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8% and 0.2%. Financial markets in the US are closed on Monday.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

The week after!
This could be the title for this week after the US inflation figures turned out worse, i.e. higher, than expected. US Inflation Fall Losing Momentum! And if things continue like this, then we are threatened with an increase again compared to the previous year, om March 2020? But I don’t want to play Kassdandra; which also doesn’t work because I have another genitalia between my legs 😉 but that’s just by the way! Because the US yield curve is becoming more attractive to all of us, which is putting pressure on the US WallStreet. That`s why, I`m staying away from a new 4XSetUp again for the time being in relation to the DOW Future.

However,
we remain long in EURUSD, long in the DAX Future, and or also (since the beginning of last week) now long in the ADIDAS share & BITCOIN.

I still don’t dare to formulate a new 4XSetUp in UKOIL (CFD on the Brent Crude Oil Future)! And that although brent Falls 4%. Brent crude futures dropped 4% to around $82 per barrel on Friday and is heading for an almost 5% weekly drop, pressured by lingering concerns about a potential recession-driven demand downturn. Hotter-than-expected US economic data fanned concerns of more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that could weigh on demand at a time when inventories continue to rise. The latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories jumped by 16.283 million barrels to 842.973 million last week, the highest level since early October.