2023/02/08 (166) Column

Germany 2023
Our Federal Chancellor Scholz
And/Or Our German Historical Political Responsibility


Jointly responsible for the First World War, mainly responsible for the Second World War – because of our political grandparents. And/or no private life for 40 years, let alone capital, under the cloak of the German democratic republic – with the help of external political direction from Moscow – because of our political parents, from the former GDR. Like 40 years conservative and freedom-loving, with social-democratic political support and/or resistance, under the cloak of the so-called West – with the help of political external direction from Washington, London & Paris – because of our political parents, from West Germany. This is the German political gene – our German political DNA – in 2023! If you don’t understand us Germans politically? And imagine that you don’t just have to sell us political walnuts…

That’s why you don’t need a doctorate to learn to understand the policy of our Federal Chancellor Schulz, also in connection with Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, like under an X-ray image. Even if no one says it (un)consciously (un)intentionally: “The current Russian government, under the direction of Vladimir Putin, has been spitting at the so-called West and its Russia policy since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s in the face! Right?” And That`s why Scholz always speaks of a turning point in time, after Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. So from a transition, just a turning point, from a period considered essential (era, epoch, millennium, seculum) to the next. The beginning of the Christian era can also be defined as a turning point in the historical context of mankind. A precisely detailed overview of our non-denominational Chancellor, who had sworn and was also elected by the majority of our compatriots to avert damage from us German citizens, due to the fact that this war of aggression is being carried out against the only President of the Jewish faith.

But let’s stay with the national conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Since there are mostly non-denominational, and/or Christian, yes also Jewish, compatriots and other (un)believing people on both sides. Our Federal Chancellor Scholz, whom I recently supported in my last column about him and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, as a true German left-wing defender, has been delivering just enough military weapons to Kiev since then, so that the Ukraine supporters halfway are satisfied. But he does not open up all the arsenals because many of his left-wing Social Democratic voters associate their historically based political anti-Americanism with a glorified image of Russia. In short, the political left in Germany and/or many East German compatriots hide to a certain extent behind an unreflected pacifism. Because, on the one hand, you don’t want to be warmongers; are not warmongers. And or on the other hand, perhaps still not wanting to admit that in the year 2023, in Moscow, there is not a red star sitting in the chair of power – none of us. Rather, a nationalist religious right-wing Orthodox Christian. As in the 1990s, in Belgrade, by the way. And that is what is causing many left-wing compatriots to panic. Into a fear of an impending fear – so, by definition, a phobia. Which can also be compared to something like an Armageddon, if you want to interpret something religious into it.

Before the danger of an impending nuclear conflict, let alone World War III, I wrote in one of my first D2D Editions last year 2002, during the outbreak of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, at that time as well. Because I know, even without a doctorate, the political gene, the political conscience, of my German compatriots. Who, like me by the way, are still attached to the political romanticism of Germany, i.e. the reunification of our Federal Republic of Germany. And that not only with the so called west – with Washington, London, and/or Paris. Even also with Russia. Moscow – the headquarter of the former sowjet union. And that`s why many of my compatriots, especially from the east reliably escalate in fear of a nuclear strike! And/or are so peacefully – against militarism – today, 2023!
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) made a government statement on Wednesday (12.30 p.m.) in the Bundestag on the EU special summit on Thursday in Brussels. There, Ukraine policy should once again be the focus. Another topic is likely to be migration policy. A 90-minute debate is planned in the Bundestag after Scholz’s speech.

In the afternoon, Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) and/or Chancellery Minister Wolfgang Schmidt (SPD) will answer questions from MPs in the government survey. Other items on the agenda on Wednesday are a topical hour on the “crisis on the housing market” and an AfD application on citizenship law.

The rescue of people buried in the earthquake areas in southern Turkey and northern Syria continues under great time pressure. Two days after the natural disaster that killed thousands, the hope of finding survivors under the rubble of collapsed buildings in the sometimes wintry temperatures is fading. Rescue workers with heavy equipment were also on duty on Wednesday night. More and more support is coming from abroad. A team of 50 from the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) left Cologne/Bonn Airport early Wednesday morning for the disaster area.

On the second night after the severe earthquake in the Turkish-Syrian border area, relatives and rescue workers continued to search for buried people. The salvage activities in the earthquake areas were still in full swing, as Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay announced late Tuesday evening. “This work will continue until we reach the last citizen under the rubble.”

According to Oktay, around 16,150 rescue and search teams are deployed – they have been sent to all affected provinces and districts. A total of around 60,000 helpers are on site. The government politician said that international and local teams would be brought to the provinces of Adiyaman, Hatay and Kahramanmaras on Wednesday night, partly by air. The weather conditions allowed such flights, which made the work easier.

For many people, however, any help came too late. According to the authorities, on Wednesday night the death toll rose to more than 8,160. More than 39,200 people were injured. According to Oktay, there are at least 5,894 deaths and more than 34,810 injuries in Turkey alone. According to the local Ministry of Health and the rescue organization White Helmets, 2,270 people died in Syria.

With a magnitude of 7.7 to 7.8, the quake shook the area on the border between Turkey and Syria early Monday morning. Another earthquake of magnitude 7.5 followed in the same region on Monday afternoon. Thousands of buildings collapsed. Temperatures around freezing point made things even harder for the survivors in the disaster area, and many of them no longer have a roof over their heads. The full extent of the catastrophe is only slowly becoming clear.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Todays Forex Price Action

Some Currencies were traded around some significant price actions areas while the trading session on this wednesday.

Loonie Under Pressure as BoC Set to Pause Rate Hikes
The Canadian dollar traded near $1.34, well below a 2-½-month high of $1.326 hit at the beginning of the month, as the Bank of Canada is expected to be the first major central bank to pause rate increases after delivering eight rate hikes in the past 11 months. The Bank of Canada hiked its key interest rate to 4.5% in January, the highest level in 15 years. Meanwhile, Governor Tiff Macklem said no further rate hikes would be needed if, as expected, the economy stalled and inflation fell. Also, the summary of Governing Council deliberations showed policymakers decided to hike rates in January because of labor-market tightness and stronger-than-expected growth and said a pause is needed to evaluate the effects of the actions taken so far.Russian Ruble Hovers Near 10-Month Low
The Russian ruble was changing hands around $72, closing in on its lowest level since April 2022, as investors remained worried about the country’s public finances after the West imposed a price cap on Russian oil products. Oil and gas revenues amounted to RUB 426 billion in January 2023, a decline of 46% from a year earlier, primarily due to a decrease in quotations for Urals oil and a drop in natural gas exports. Still, the downside has been limited by the government’s activity on the foreign exchange market. On the policy side, Russia’s Central Bank will likely hold its key interest rate at 7.5% on Friday but give a more hawkish signal to the market amid rising inflationary pressures.

Indian Rupee Gains Slightly after RBI
The Indian rupee strengthened slightly to 82.5 per USD after approaching record lows early in the month as investors digested the latest RBI move. The Reserve Bank of India raised the key interest rate by an expected 25bps to 6.5% but left the door open for further increases, dashing market hopes for a final borrowing costs hike in the current tightening cycle. While consumer inflation in India stayed below the central bank’s target of 2-6% for a second month in December, the core inflation hasn’t eased to that level yet. At the same time, the rupee has been hit by a stocks fallout and foreign outflows amid concerns regarding the Indian conglomerate Adani Group.

Sterling Hovers Around 1-Month Low
The British pound remained below $1.21 after touching $1.1958 on Tuesday, its weakest level since January 6th, as the Bank of England was seen as more dovish relative to the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, investors awaited more comment from UK policymakers and Britain’s fourth-quarter GDP data due on Friday, which might provide further clues about the central bank’s next moves. UK officials delivered a 10th straight interest rate hike in February, raising Bank Rate by 50 bps to 4%, its highest since late 2008. However, the central bank believed that inflation may have peaked, signaling that its tightening cycle might come to an end. Meanwhile, BoE chief economist Huw Pill said on Monday that the bank was prepared to do more to get inflation to target. Elsewhere, the US dollar held close to one-month high following stronger-than-expected US jobs data and as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said US interest rates might need to go higher.Euro Remains Close to 9-Month High
The euro held above $1.07 in mid-February, not far from a near nine-month high of $1.1034 touched last week, supported by the European Central Bank’s hawkish stance. ECB’s Joachim Nagel joined a chorus of policymakers calling for even more tightening in the spring to bring inflation back to the 2% target, while board member Isabel Schnabel also said that the rate hikes delivered by the ECB so far were having little impact on inflation. The bloc’s central bank raised interest rates by 50 bps at its February meeting to the highest levels since late 2008, flagging one more increase of the same magnitude next month and reaffirming its commitment to battle high inflation. Elsewhere, demand for the dollar remained solid following a strong US jobs report released on Friday. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said US interest rates might need to go higher, while the “disinflationary” process appeared to be underway.

Turkish Lira Holds at Record-Low
The Turkish lira has set a fresh record low of 18.9 per USD in February, following a catastrophic earthquake in southern Turkey and Syria, as well as rising geopolitical tensions between Washington and Ankara over trade with Moscow. The US warned Turkey about the export to Russia of chemicals, microchips, and other products that could be used in the war against Ukraine. Domestically, political and monetary policy uncertainty also weighed on the market ahead of the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections in May, as the country struggled with a deepening economic crisis and increasing inflation. Latest data showed Turkey’s annual inflation eased to 58% in January but remained above market expectations, adding to investors’ concerns. The lira has lost more than 40% against the greenback and became the second-worst performer in emerging markets in 2022, after a 77% plunge in 2021.

Todays European Trading Session

Equities in Moscow dropped for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, with the ruble-based MOEX closing around 2,250 points, dragged by the chemicals sector. Investors continued to follow developments about the government proposal to tax oil producers based on Brent crude prices rather than the currently used Urals benchmark after Western sanctions pressured the latter. On top of that, the government is considering introducing a windfall tax on big companies as the country’s monthly revenues from oil and gas have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020. Among single stocks, Aeroflot and Polus were among the biggest laggards, down roughly 2.5% and 1.1%, respectively.

Equities in London advanced for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 hitting a fresh record peak but paring some gains to close around 7,880, with a rally in the technology and energy sector partly offset by losses in materials. Investors welcomed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that the disinflationary process has begun, particularly in the goods sector, even as he acknowledged that rates might need to move higher than expected if the jobs market shows no signs of cooling. BT Group rallied more than 3% to lead the FTSE 100, while oil giant BP was also among the top gainers.

European stock markets closed mostly higher on Wednesday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 gaining about 0.3% to end near last Friday’s nine-month high and Germany’s DAX 40 advancing 0.5% to finish above the 15,400 mark, helped by upbeat earnings reports from Finnish refiner Neste, Norway’s Equinor, and Danish jewellery maker Pandora. In other corporate news, German gas giant Linde and Dutch paints maker Akzo Nobel gave higher 2023 earnings forecasts, while Norwegian fertiliser maker Yara proposed a higher-than-expected dividend. Elsewhere, investors have also weighed less hawkish than feared comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell against hawkish remarks from ECB’s Joachim Nagel. Powell reiterated overnight that the disinflation process had begun although further rate increases were still needed, while Nagel said there was a need for more big interest rate hikes to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

French Stocks Underperform Peers
The CAC 40 index reversed early gains to close slightly down at 7,120 on Wednesday, underperforming its regional peers, amid concerns over France’s economic and social situation following nationwide protests against Macron’s pension reform. Meanwhile, investors weighed the “balanced” tone from Fed’s Chair Powell against more hawkish comments from other Federal Reserve officials and some ECB policymakers. Powell reinforced that rates might need to move higher if the jobs market shows no signs of cooling, although the disinflation process has begun. On the corporate front, Societe Generale slipped 5%, the most in the index, even after posting a higher-than-expected profit in the fourth quarter, followed by Saint Gobain (-4%). Also, shares in TotalEnergies fell 1.9%, after its fourth-quarter profits and revenues missed market estimates. On the opposite side, BNP Paribas (+2.4%) and Engie (+2%) advanced the most.Italian Stocks End at Near 1-Year High
The FTSE MIB index rose about 0.2% to close at 27,161 on Wednesday, the highest in almost a year, extending gains for the third straight session. Market sentiment was boosted by upbeat corporate earnings and after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a less hawkish tone than feared during a speech at the Economic Club of Washington. On the domestic data front, Italy’s retail sales fell in December, though less than expected. Among single stocks, Saipem was once again the top performer, advancing 5.2%, benefiting from rising crude oil prices and the update on the sale of onshore drilling assets from KCA Deutag, which announced the completion of the acquisition of the assets in Kuwait.

Spain Stocks End Higher on Lifted Sentiment
The Ibex35 rose by 0.6% to 9227 on Wednesday, returning to the levels last seen in June 2021 and tracking its regional peers, as the market welcomed upbeat earnings reports and less hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Yesterday Powell reconfirmed the beginning of disinflationary processes but warned further rate hikes might still be needed. The growth in Spanish stocks was broad-based, led by the 2.93% advance of Banco Sabadell after the institution chose the Italian group Nexi as the highest bidder to acquire the business of payments for merchants, according to Reuters. GRIFOLS, Merlin Properties, Bankinter, and Repsol followed, up by more than 2% each. On the other hand, Logista was the biggest laggard, down by 2.45% despite releasing the report of 60 million euros in profits, a 15.3% gain over the same period yoy.

Todays US Trading Session

Wall Street Sheds on Profit Outlook Fears
All three major US stocks closed in negative territory on Wednesday, as investors were concerned about the impact of a slowing economy on corporate profits and digested comments from Fed Powell on Tuesday. The Dow Jones lost more than 200 points, and the S&P 500 dipped 1.1%. The Nasdaq shed almost 1.7% due to a heavy selloff in tech, led by an over 7.6% loss by Google’s parent Alphabet after its new AI chatbot Bard delivered an incorrect answer in an online advertisement. Also, Amazon and Meta were down 2.2% and 4.3% respectively, while Microsoft finished slightly higher after the software giant said it was updating its Edge web browser and Bing search engine with artificial intelligence. On the flip side, CVS Health Corp and Uber surged more than 3.4% and 5.5%, after upbeat earning results. Chipotle dropped 5% after its quarterly results missed expectations.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

This week is likely to be somewhat weaker for equity markets around the world. Because the development in individual stock markets, distributed around the world, is almost in the double-digit percentage range. As such, price losses should be taken as an exhale for this week’s run. Regardless of our open running trading capabilities, I am always trying to identify further 4XSetUps. I have UKOIL at the top of my watch list. But I still don’t dare to formulate a new 4XSetUp trading capability. Because all open 4XSetUps trading capabilities are currently traded in profit. And I don’t want to formulate a 4XSetUps because I’m too greedy and/or can’t get enough of it.

However,
Today Brent Holds Advance On Falling US Stockpiles
Brent crude futures held above $83 per barrel on Wednesday after rallying for two straight sessions, underpinned by industry data showing US crude inventories declined by 2.18 million barrels last week, defying forecasts for a 2.15 million barrel increase. Risk assets were also supported after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded less hawkish that markets anticipated. He said that more rate hikes will likely be needed if the jobs market remains strong, but maintained that disinflation has begun. Meanwhile, the international oil benchmark gained nearly 5% in the past two sessions as suspended operations at a key oil terminal in Turkey due to the recent earthquake and an unexpected shutdown of a major oil field in Norway stoked supply concerns. Investors also remained optimistic about China’s demand recovery, while assessing the impact of a European ban on seaborne imports and price caps for Russian oil products that came into effect on Sunday.