2023/02/06 (164) Column

Trump Was And/Or
Isn`t A Warmonger!
So will he (not) be re-elected?


The attempt by the US Democrats to sideline Donald J. Trump as a political aberration was doomed from the start and/or is still doomed to this day. This is confirmed by the cult around January 6th in the USA. Because the foreign policy scenario under the clock by Joe Biden speaks for itself. The US military complex, at the latest since 911 from 2001, simply does not want to afford a US president who makes peace abroad! And almost every means seems right to you?

Donald Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, was already celebrated as a brilliant orator, progressive reformer, visionary and man of the people by his politically close authors, newspaper publishers, TV announcers, and other public figures. And so the current US Democrat President Biden tries again and again with the help of so-called celebrators, like Obama did back then, to endorse the legitimacy of his unproductive and unprofitable policy for the majority of Americans. Comedians like Ellen DeGeneres and Jerry Seinfeld, the actors Leonardo DiCaprio and/or the famous Tom Hanks, as well as the former basketball star Michael Jordan, spontaneously come to mind as (un)consciously (un)intentionally useful celebrities who tried to overshadow the incompetence of their own president. They all express their enthusiasm for “historic moments that prove: Yes, we can ensure progress”. Whether Obama and/or also Biden. This abstruse adulation does not reveal anything about the qualities or achievements of the 44th or 46th US President, and all the more about the sad intellectual, political and moral state of America’s cultural establishment. “Are you kidding me?” is one inclined to ask when trying to follow the split reporting in the major US TV stations. And or “I’m too old for this shit!”. Now, more than 30 years after the reunification of our Federal Republic of Germany, in 2023 the USA seems to be biting into the opposite political development of my home country Germany, maybe even Europe.

The chirping of Trump handing power to Biden in the form of questioning the outcome of the 2020 presidential election amuses only anti-Americans. In Canada, in Mexico, in Europe – and above all in the other countries of the world. And forces former admirers of the USA to switch off when trying to get information about the USA from abroad, from the USA. The US Democrats and their well-off supporters in the social media environment, and/or Hollywood, may imagine that an US President’s balance sheet can be formed from a clever marketing concept and sentimental sayings. Possibly maybe in the US. But the bulk of the world’s population ultimately judges the government by its actions. And as far as Donald Trump’s foreign policy was concerned, it was outstanding! He managed to organize an Abraham According deal. While Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine under the watch of Sleepy Joe Biden after Trump’s involuntary fall from power. As in the 1990s, the also orthodox Christian Serbian nationalist Slobodan Milosevic, my homeland Croatia – under the watch of then US Democrat Clinton.

A column like this is by far not enough to tell the true foreign policy balance of the USA, the US Democrats, and/or the US Republicans since the end of the Cold War and/or the simultaneous reunification of my home country, the Federal Republic of Germany , to be shown in detail. The divergence of the global political situation, above all from the point of view of our so-called, and hopefully beloved, West, has not gotten any better under Sleepy Joe Biden’s watch! Do we in the West no longer tacitly expect that from US Presidents? And at the same time I get the uneasy feeling that Sleepy Joe Biden in the White House now seems to me like an old uncle, with all the love and respect, that the office of US President deserves more; than the admittedly narcissistic child-headed Trump. Who, in public, simply didn’t want to admit his political defeat – couldn’t admit it.

However,
don’t get me wrong about this, my dear, loyal readers.
I also think Donald Trump’s reaction after his election defeat in the US presidential election 2020 is wrong. If only he had publicly accepted the election defeat in 2020 the very next day. And then not falling into a rigged election defeat infantilely narcissistic – with many other US Republican spokesmen like Steve Bannon, Rudy Guiliani, Peter Navarro, and other well-meaning US Republicans (with their daily US radio talk shows and/or podcasts, which I also listen to passionately) – until January 6, 2021. Then there would be no more reason to doubt his personality if he ran again for the office of US President! “What about ism!”, “Who are you?”, “What is?!”, i.e. political “Joypardy!” Broadcasts by US Democrats questioning his personality! And why? Because he was not and is not a warmonger – like his predecessors in office!
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

According to preliminary information, more than 2,600 people died in a devastating earthquake in the Turkish-Syrian border area. Since the search for countless buried people continued on Monday evening, a further increase in the number of victims was feared. The 7.8-magnitude tremor hit the region, which was already badly hit by the civil war in Syria, early Monday morning. Germany and numerous other countries mobilized emergency aid for the earthquake victims. The strongest earthquake in the region for decades surprised people in their sleep at 04:17 (02:17 CET). According to the USGS, its epicenter was 17.9 kilometers deep near the city of Gaziantep, which has a population of two million, around 60 kilometers from the border with Syria.In the hours that followed, the Turkish-Syrian border region was shaken by more than 50 aftershocks. One of them had a magnitude of 7.5. The tremors could be felt as far as Lebanon and Cyprus – and, according to Denmark’s Geological Institute, measurable as far as Greenland. The tremors caused enormous destruction on both sides of the border. Whole neighborhoods were razed to the ground in Turkish cities along the border with Syria, already strained by millions of refugees.

According to government figures, the number of deaths in Turkey rose to 1,651 by the evening. More than 11,000 people were injured. According to Turkish information, almost 3,500 buildings were destroyed in the earthquake and countless people were buried. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered a seven-day national mourning. All flags in the country are to be flown at half-mast by Sunday evening. In Syria, at least a thousand people have died in provinces controlled by Damascus and in areas under rebel control, the government and rescue workers said. They also reported almost 1,500 injuries. Here, too, many people were still buried under the rubble of collapsed buildings.
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Todays Forex Price Action

The foreign exchange market was pretty volatile at start of this week. Because the Yen weakens on BOJ Succession News. As the Chinese Yuan Pressured by Hot US Jobs Data. While Turkish Lira Holds at Record-Low.

Yen Weakens on BOJ Succession News
The Japanese yen weakened past 132 per dollar, hovering near its lowest levels in a month amid reports that the government has approached Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya about succeeding Haruhiko Kuroda as central bank head. Amamiya is considered the most dovish among the potential candidates, which dashes hopes of BOJ normalizing the monetary policy after years of ultra-easy settings. The central bank recently defied speculations about another policy adjustment by maintaining its ultra-low interest rates and leaving its yield control policy unchanged. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated the 2% inflation target must be achieved in a sustainable fashion, one that is accompanied by a healthy rise in wages. The yen also came under pressure from a resurgent dollar as stronger-than-expected US jobs data suggested the Federal Reserve had more room for interest rates hikes.

Chinese Yuan Pressured by Hot US Jobs Data
The offshore yuan traded around 6.8 per dollar, hovering near its weakest levels in a month as stronger-than-expected US jobs data suggested the Federal Reserve had more room for interest rate hikes. Investors also monitored simmering tensions after the US military shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon over the Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, official data showed Chinese private sector activity rebounded sharply and turned expansionary in January. The country also posted robust holiday spending and tourism data during the week-long Lunar New Year celebrations. Moreover, Beijing vowed to promote consumption as a major economic driver and to boost imports. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged for the fifth straight month at its January meeting.Turkish Lira Holds at Record-Low
The Turkish lira has broken a fresh record low of 18.86 per USD in February and weakened nearly 1% since the start of the year as political uncertainty mounted ahead of the presidential election in May, which could impact the country’s monetary policy. The lira lost more than 40% against the greenback and became the second-worst performer in emerging markets in 2022, after a 77% plunge in 2021, as the central bank proceeded with its unorthodox rate-cutting policy against a backdrop of soaring prices and trade imbalances. TCMB slashed its key rate by 1000 bps since September 2021, as demanded by President Erdogan to stimulate growth in industry and exports. However, the central bank paused the rate-cut cycle in December and has kept the one-week repo rate unchanged at 9% since, saying the current policy rate was sufficient and disinflation was about to start. The annual inflation rate fell for a third consecutive month to 57.7% in January, the lowest level since February 2022.

Todays Commodities Price Action

The CRB Commodity Index dipped below the 300 mark, moving away from a multi-month high of 305 points reached on January 25th, as persistent fears of a demand-sapping global recession pushed commodity prices down. Energy markets remain the driver of the recent downward move, with WTI crude futures bottoming at $74 per barrel, close to levels last seen in December 2021. In the industrial sector, copper, considered an economic barometer, fell more than 5% to $4.1/Lbs from its seven-month peak of $4.3 in late January. Meanwhile, agriculture commodities have been supported by prospects of robust demand and concerns about tight global supplies. Soybeans futures rose back to the $15 per bushel mark, up more than 15% from their July lows.
Perhaps that was the reason why FTSE 100 Snaps Two-Day Rally and/or MOEX Extends Rally to Four-Month High.

FTSE 100 Snaps Two-Day Rally
Equities in London snapped two consecutive days of gains on Monday, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 pulling back from a record closing peak to end below 7,840 points, dragged by real estate and consumer discretionary stocks. Risk appetite remained subdued amid escalating tensions between the US and China over a suspected spy balloon. Adding to the gloomy mood, an unexpectedly strong US jobs report last week raised the prospect of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Asian-focused Prudential and online grocery retailer Ocado were among the biggest laggards, down 4.8% and 3.6%, respectively.

MOEX Extends Rally to Four-Month High
Equities in Moscow increased for the seventh consecutive session on Monday, with the ruble-based MOEX index closing at an over four-month high of 2,270 points, driven by gains in the chemicals sector. On the data front, oil and gas revenues amounted to RUB 426 billion in January 2023, a decline of 46% from a year earlier, primarily due to a decrease in quotations for Urals oil and a drop in natural gas exports. Among single stocks, NOVATEK and GDR Globaltrans Inves ORD were among the top performers, up roughly 4.8% and 4.3%, respectively.

Todays European Trading Session

European equity markets fell on Monday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 down 0.8% and the German DAX falling 0.8%, after stronger-than-expected US jobs data dashed market hopes that the Federal Reserve would pause its monetary policy tightening cycle soon. Markets now expect US policymakers to hike rates by 25bps in March and May, leaving the peak at 5.0%, compared with a previous forecast of 4.9%. Elsewhere, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said on Saturday that the ECB could take a cautious approach to increasing interest rates as short-term inflation expectations had dropped sharply. Investors will also focus on results from major companies, including BP, Unilever and banks such as BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Suisse. On the data front, German factory orders rebounded 3.2% in December, easily beating expectations of a 2% growth.

Spain Stocks Start Week in Red
The Ibex35 index lost about 0.7% to close at 9,159 on Monday, marking the second consecutive decline and tracking its European peers amid concerns over the possible prolonged rate hikes by the Fed. For its part, the ECB has already indicated the raise by 50 bps in March. Markets also reacted to increasing geopolitical tensions between US and China following the destruction of a Chinese “meteorological observation” balloon over American territory. On the domestic data front, Spain’s consumer confidence indicator rose to an unexpected 73 in January 2023, the highest in seven months but not enough to lift the stocks out of the red. Fluidra, ArcelorMittal, and Grupo ACS were the biggest laggards, down by -4.40%, -3.50%, and -2.54%, respectively. Meanwhile, financial advanced, with CaixaBank up 2.4% after Berenberg and RBC analysts raised the bank’s target price. Investors now brace for the quarterly results of Logista, Mapfre, and ArcelorMittal, due later in the week.

Italian Stocks Outperform
The FTSE MIB index reversed early losses to close slightly higher at 27,022 on Monday, bucking the trend in Europe. Sharp gains in Telecom Italia (+3.2%), Banco Bpm (+2.7%), Intesa Sanpaolo (+2.7%) and Amplifon (+2.4%) more than offset weakness in Moncler (-2.3%), Stmicroelectronics (-2.2%) and Finecobank (-1.9%). Meanwhile, investors weighed prospects of higher interest rates for longer as well as rising US-China geopolitical tensions. Also, the ongoing earnings season and economic data from major economies continued to be monitored closely. On the domestic data front, a fresh PMI survey showed Italy’s construction sector contracted for the second straight month in January, though less than in the prior month.

French Stocks Underperform Peers
The CAC 40 index fell about 1.3% to close at 7,137 on Monday, underperforming its regional peers, amid concerns over the likelihood of continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. For its part, the ECB has already indicated that it will raise the cost of money by 50 basis points in March. Markets also reacted to increasing geopolitical tensions between US and China following the destruction of a Chinese “meteorological observation” balloon over American territory. On the domestic data front, a fresh PMI survey showed France’s construction sector declined for the eighth straight month in January, though the least in four months. Meanwhile, France is braced for widespread disruptions tomorrow on a third day of protest against the government’s pension reform bill. On the corporate front, several sectors closed in the red, with tech stocks and China-sensitive luxury companies among the worst performers. The only exceptions were Renault (+0.3%) and Carrefour (+0.1%).

Todays US Trading Session

Wall Street Falls on Uncertainty
The Dow closed more than 30 points lower on Monday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down 0.6% and 1%, respectively, as investors remained cautious of rising bond yield that signaled further rate hikes in the next Federal reserve meeting. Meantime, traders remained concerned about US-China tensions, while watched a slew of earnings releases. Last week’s blockbuster US jobs report and ISM data pointing to a robust services sector added to concerns about persistent inflation and bolstered the case for more rate increases. On the corporate front, Dell Technologies fell 3% after the company announced it will cut 6,650 jobs as demand for personal computers has declined. Tyson Foods plunged 4.6% after the biggest US meat company missed its earnings expectations. Another batch of earnings releases is due this week including those from Pepsi, Uber, and Walt Disney and will offer further insight into how businesses deal with growing macro headwinds.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hovers Near One-Month High
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, topped 3.6%, a level not seen in almost a month, as signs of a tight labor market and a still resilient economy fanned concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report showed that job growth accelerated sharply in January. At the same time, ISM data pointed to a robust services sector, adding to concerns about persistent inflation and bolstering the case for more rate increases. Investors now see the Fed raising the fed funds rate to 5%-5.25%, with the world’s most influential central bank delivering a 25 bps hike in March and May before pausing. Still, Wall Street and the Fed are again in a standoff on the future path of interest rates, with the former betting on a rate cut later this year while the latter reaffirmed its view that interest rates will stay higher for longer.

Dollar Index Back Above 103
The dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies on Monday, breaking well above 103 for the first time since early January as robust US data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more and keep them high for longer. The US economy added 517K jobs in January, the most since July and much more than market expectations of 185K. At the same time, ISM data pointed to a strong services sector, adding to concerns about persistent inflation and bolstering the case for more rate increases. Investors also turned to the safe-haven currency amid escalating tensions between the US and China over a suspected spy balloon. The dollar held recent gains against the euro, sterling, and antipodean currencies.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

This week is likely to be somewhat weaker for equity markets around the world. Because the development in individual stock markets, distributed around the world, is almost in the double-digit percentage range. As such, price losses should be taken as an exhale for this week’s run. Regardless of our open running trading capabilities, I am always trying to identify further 4XSetUps. I have UKOIL at the top of my watch list. But I still don’t dare to formulate a new 4XSetUp trading capability. Because all open 4XSetUps trading capabilities are currently traded in profit. And I don’t want to formulate a 4XSetUps because I’m too greedy and/or can’t get enough of it.

However,
Today Brent Steadies on Robust IEA Outlook
Brent crude futures steadied around $80 per barrel on Monday as IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said over the weekend that China’s economy could be poised for a stronger-than-anticipated rebound that will boost demand for crude, Bloomberg reported. A European ban on seaborne imports and price caps for Russian oil products also came into effect on Sunday. Elsewhere, OPEC+ recently decided to maintain its current output policy, with Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman saying over the weekend that the kingdom will remain cautious about raising supply. Meanwhile, the international oil benchmark dropped nearly 3% on Friday, bringing weekly losses to almost 8% after stronger-than-expected US jobs data suggested the Federal Reserve has more room to hike interest rates.