2023/01/30 (159) Column

Various POV`s
increase the quality
of the decision-making process


What should I do today? What should I read today? What should I look at today on the Internet? Who should I listen to today? BloombergTV? CNBC? Fox Business? The DAX by 15000 points. The DOW JONES by 34000 points. And the S&P by 4000 points. Yes, the EURUSD is now at 1.10! Will it continue to 1.20 EURUSD? Lots of banal, almost irrelevant questions that you`re surely asking yourself daily – and that should not be underestimated. An unexpectedly brisk start to the new year had preceded it. However, the first experiences in 2023 are far too short to make presumably reliable predictions, and the periods of professional forecasts are also too different. Nevertheless, I have now dared to do it – at the end of January 2023 and/or at the beginning of February 2023: DOW Future long (as a conservative base investment), DAX Future long (as a German patriot, without overpriced technology companies from Silicon Valley), incl. EURUSD long (after the FED had already done most of its homework in 2022 – in contrast to the ECB, which still has to do it in 2023). And/Or also long TESLA shares – as an highly speculative admixture. If you go long a maximum of 5% of your portfolio with these four 4XSetUps, from today’s perspective, it should be worth, more or less, until the end of 2023! Or?

Nevertheless, once again, as an interim balance, the statement that the (predominantly) expressed pessimism of most colleagues and strategists (without wanting to name names at this point in order to publicly discredit them) has remained: The new stock market year 2023 will  also be as bad as the old one 2022!? No?! It’s going to get even worse because we’re going to slide into a recession. Therefore, a principle that is certainly not new, but constantly repeated by my humble person: only ever use a maximum of a handful of percent of the total portfolio value for a transaction, let alone a 4XSetUp! Because, if you stick to this principle, you may one day have a maximum of 20 open positions at a time. But certainly don’t be such a bad trader and/or investor whose all 20 positions will simultaneously go into the red at once! Therefore read, analyze and evaluate – every message. Any information. And not just in any Edition of our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper. And then decide for yourself whether you should … act (buy/sell or do nothing)! And that just because of central bank information, certain economic data, other financial market price actions, another scenario, and or also because of a technical analysis!

And that always with a maximum of 5% of your portfolio value!
Only 4% would be even better. And the best would be 3% of the total portfolio assets!
Which I personally call speculative. 2% as dynamic. And 1% as conservative. And whatever you decide, you always decide that you want to decide for yourself. Because only that – to decide, to want to make decisions yourself – strengthens your decision-making ability! Strengthens your competent personality, day by day…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It will be a very busy week with central banks meetings in US, UK, and Euro Area and/or US non-farm payrolls report taking central stage. Also, investors will follow inflation and GDP growth rates for major European economies including Germany, France, and Italy. Finally, it will be worth following fresh PMI readings for the US, China, Canada, India, Australia, and South Korea.

In addition, there is also the strongest week in terms of quarterly reports, on the US Wall Street. It will be and is one of the most groundbreaking weeks of this year 2023! And that already in the fifth calendar week of 2023.

However, DOW Future long (as a conservative base investment), DAX Future long (as a German patriot, without overpriced technology companies from Silicon Valley), incl. EURUSD long (after the FED had already done most of its homework in 2022 – in contrast to the ECB, which still has to do it in 2023). And/Or also long TESLA shares – as an highly speculative admixture. If you go long, please only with a maximum of 5% of your portfolio with these four 4XSetUps. And that only from today’s perspective. It should be worth, more or less, until the end of 2023! Don`t you think so? More every day – today also.
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price ActionsThe offshore yuan firmed up around 6.75 per dollar, hovering close to its strongest levels in over six months as robust holiday spending and tourism data during the week-long Lunar New Year celebrations raised hopes of continued economic recovery in China, lifting market sentiment. Chinese authorities also said over the weekend that they would promote consumption recovery as a major economic driver and seek to boost imports, bolstering the outlook in Asia’s largest economy. Latest data showed that the country’s economy expanded 2.9% YoY in the fourth quarter, slowing from a 3.9% growth in the previous quarter but exceeding forecasts of a 1.8% rise. However, full-year GDP growth for 2022 was at 3%, far below the official target of about 5.5%. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged for the fifth straight month at its January fixing, as authorities aimed to boost market confidence and provide support to the economy.

New Zealand Shares Muted at Finish
Australian Shares Fall as Commodities Drag
Japanese Shares Mixed as Fed Decision Looms
China Stocks Rise in Post-Holiday Trade
Hang Seng Plunges 2.7% at Close
Indian Shares Pare Losses to Halt Plunge

New Zealand Shares Muted at Finish
The NZX 50 closed almost flat at 12,034 on Monday, as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve’s rate-hike verdict later this week. Economic data Friday showed that US Core PCE inflation in December increased the least since October 2021; while personal spending dropped for the second successive month. Locally, four people have lost their lives in the flash floods that have hit Auckland over the last three days, with Prime Minister Chris Hipkins describing the situation as “unprecedented”. Meanwhile, insurance companies are expecting a rise in the number of claims in the coming days. Still, the index held its highest in 9-1/2 months, with traders being hopeful that the new administration in Wellington will be able to control surging prices while bets grew that the RBNZ will opt for a smaller rate hike in February after delivering a record 75bps rise in November. Tech stocks, retail trade, and transport were lower amid gains in commercial services, health services, and utilities.

Australian Shares Fall as Commodities Drag
The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.16% to close at 7,482 on Monday, easing slightly from nine-month highs, with heavyweight mining and energy stocks leading the decline. Investors also turned cautious ahead of interest rate decisions from major central banks this week, headlined by an expected rate hike from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Iron ore miners led the losses, including BHP Group (-0.6%), Rio Tinto (-1.1%) and Fortescue Metals (-1.3%). Energy firms also dropped on weaker oil prices, with sector leaders Woodside Energy and Santos losing 0.3% and 1%, respectively. Moreover, insurance giants IAG and Suncorp tumbled 3.7% and 2%, respectively, amid fears of losses due to floods in New Zealand. Meanwhile, gold, lithium and technology stocks advanced, with gains from Newcrest Mining (0.7%), Pilbara Minerals (2%) and Xero (3.1%).

Japanese Shares Mixed as Fed Decision Looms
The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.19% to close at 27,433 while the broader Topix Index shed 0.01% to 1,982 in mixed trade on Monday, with Japanese stocks struggling for direction ahead of key interest rate decisions from major central banks this week, headlined by an expected rate hike from the US Federal Reserve. Last week, data also showed that Tokyo inflation exceeded expectations in January, indicating elevated nationwide inflationary levels and adding pressure on the Bank of Japan to tweak its policy of ultra-low interest rates.

China Stocks Rise in Post-Holiday Trade
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.14% to close at 3,269 while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.98% to 12,098 on Monday, hitting their highest levels in at least five months as mainland markets returned from the week-long Lunar New Year holidays, extending the January rally driven by China’s rapid reopening from Covid curbs and expectations of a slower pace of central bank policy tightening worldwide. Chinese authorities also said over the weekend that they would promote consumption recovery as a major economic driver and seek to boost imports, bolstering the outlook in Asia’s largest economy.

Hang Seng Plunges 2.7% at Close
The Hang Seng tumbled 619.17 points or 2.73% to finish at 22,069.73 on Monday, hit by profit-taking after the index closed at over 11 months in the prior session. Meantime, the Biden administration reportedly secured a deal with the Netherlands and Japan Friday to restrict exports of some chipmaking equipment to China, raising new tensions between Beijing and Washington. Caution also mounted in a week full of central banks’ meetings that are sure to see borrowing costs rise globally while risks of an outsized hike in the US exist.Indian Shares Pare Losses to Halt Plunge
The BSE Sensex pared earlier losses to close 170 points higher at 59,500 on Monday, putting a pause on last week’s plummet as investors continued to monitor the allegations against Adani Group companies. On Sunday, the conglomerate issued a detailed response to a report from Hindenburg Research which flagged concerns about fraud, debt levels, and the use of tax havens. The group said it had complied with all local laws while making regulatory disclosures. Still, banking shares continued to book losses, with IndusInd Bank sliding 4% while the State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, and Axis bank dropped more than 1% due to exposure to Adani corporate bonds. In the meantime, NTP, Infosys, and Ultra Tech Cement led the gains for the session, all rising more than 3%. Investors now await the Union Budget to be released Wednesday.

European Equity Markets Edged Down In Monday, With The Benchmark Stoxx 600 And/Or The German DAX Down 0.1% Each
Tech stocks led losses in the Old Continent, as investors expect major central banks to continue to hike interest rates this week. The Fed is set to announce a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate on Wednesday while on Thursday both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are set to raise rates by 50bps. On the economic data front, the German economy unexpectedly contracted in Q4, and Spain’s inflation accelerated in January from December’s 13-month low. In corporate headlines, Philips said Q4 revenue beat estimates and that it would scrap 6,000 jobs to restore profitability; while Nissan Motor Co and Renault SA announced a sweeping restructure of their two-decade-old automaking alliance. Also, Unilever announced it had appointed a new CEO, while Ryanair posted its largest after-tax profit for the October-December quarter.

French Stocks Edge LowerFrance Stock Market
Spain Stocks Close Monday with Losses
Italian Shares Start Week with Losses

French Stocks Edge Lower
The CAC 40 index closed marginally down at 7,082 on Monday, tracking a cautious mood across major bourses, ahead of a busy week of earnings reports and key monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB and the BoE. On the corporate front, automaker Renault was the worst performer (-4.1%) after announcing that it would reduce its stake in its Japanese partner Nissan to 15% from 43%, which will in turn invest in Ampère, bringing together the electrical activities of the French group. It was followed by ArcelorMittal (-1.8%), Saint Gobain (-1.5%) and Stellantis (-1.3%). On the opposite side, Thales (+1.6%), Kering (+1.5%) andDanone (+1.2%) advanced the most.

Spain Stocks Close Monday with Losses
The Ibex 35 declined by 0.12% to 9049 on Monday, in line with its regional peers, as investors turned cautious ahead of key monetary policy decisions later in the week. The Fed is set to announce a 25bps increase in its funds rate on Wednesday, while the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are set to raise their rates by 50bps on Thursday. On the economic data front, the German economy unexpectedly contracted in Q4, and Spain’s inflation accelerated slightly in January from December’s 13-month low. On the corporate front, traders keep an eye on earning reports from Spanish financial institutions (BBVA, Banco Santander, and Caixabank).

Italian Shares Start Week with Losses
The FTSE MIB index closed 0.4% lower at 26,340 on Monday, edging down from the 11-month high touched in the prior session as a batch of concerning macroeconomic data dampened demand for European equities. Inflation in Spain unexpectedly rebounded during January, halting the momentum of decelerated consumer prices in the currency bloc and raising fears that inflation is much stickier than expected. In the meantime, the German economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter. Still, money markets widely expect the European Central Bank to raise its key rates by 50bps in its meeting this week. Utilities and raw material stocks led the losses in Milan, tracking the drop in commodity prices. On the other hand, banks closed slightly in the green.

UK Stocks Enjoy Some Respite While The MOEX Advances On Monday

Equities in London managed to rebound from a dismal start to end Monday’s session higher, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 closing around the 7,780 level, as gains in consumer staples and industrials offset losses in the financials sector. And/Or the MOEX Russia index extended early gains and closed 0.7% higher at 2,204 on Monday, extending the rally from the last session with strong support from miners, metallurgists, and telecoms. 

UK Stocks Enjoy Some Respite
MOEX Advances on Monday

UK Stocks Enjoy Some Respite
Still, investors refrained from opening significant positions ahead of critical central bank decisions later this week while Britain’s gloomy economic outlook continued to keep risk appetite subdued. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will hold policy meetings later this week. The latter will likely deliver a second consecutive 50 bps on Thursday, bringing borrowing costs to around 4%. Regarding individual share price movement, J Sainsbury and Auto Trader Group were among the top gainers, up 4.1% and 2.8%, respectively.

MOEX Advances on Monday
Rostelecom shares led the advances among the blue chips and jumped 4.6% after a Kommersant report indicated the group could acquire major carrier MegaFon from USM Group. In the meantime, gold miner Polus surged 5% while steel producers MMK and Severstal gained 3.2% and 2.1%, respectively, as investors continued to assess raw-material demand for major client China following their week-long New Year holidays. On the other hand, energy shares underperformed other subindices and closed slightly above the flatline. Gazprom stocks closed in the red as low TTF contract prices for Europe and lower flows through Ukraine continued to dent exports. Oil shares traded mixed as investors assessed the impact of the G7’s price cap on Russian seaborne export of diesel and other fuels to be triggered next week.

Wall Street Falls
Aheadof Fed Rate Decision

The Dow Jones was down more than 200 points on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost more than 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively, as investors await the Fed’s meeting and a busy week of earnings. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25pbs, slowing its tightening pace for the second straight session at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, amid signs that show inflation in the US has begun to ease. Meantime, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are set to raise their rates by 50bps on Thursday. Communication services and information technology were among the worst performers each down about 1.3%, and mega-cap tech stocks including Meta and Alphabet lost more than 2% each. Ford was down more than 1% after announcing price cuts for its products.Dollar Steadies As Fed Decision Looms
Euro Nears 9-Month High Ahead Of Key Meetings And/Or Sterling Holds At $1.24 On Monday Trading Session
While 10-Year Treasury Yield Consolidates Above 3.5% As UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Hovers At 3.3% Ahead Of BoE Meeting

The dollar index steadied near 102 on Monday as investors cautiously awaited a key interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve this week. The US central bank is widely expected to deliver a smaller quarter-point increase on Wednesday, while investors will be watching for clues on the path for interest rate rises. Data released on Friday showed that the Fed-preferred core PCE inflation measure in the US slowed to an over one-year low in December, supporting the case for a slower pace of policy tightening. US consumer spending also declined more than expected in December, indicating a slowing economy at the end of last year, with most analysts expecting a mild recession by the second half of 2023. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are set to decide on monetary policy this week as well. The euro appreciated above $1.09 at the end of January, hovering around its strongest level since last April, as investors looked towards a slew of central bank meetings this week while digesting stronger-than-expected Spanish inflation data. The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday, bringing borrowing costs to their highest since 2008, while traders will also be looking for any signs of slowdown in the pace of tightening at the March meeting. Earlier this month, President Lagarde has warned that the central bank would continue raising interest rates and leave them in restrictive territory for as long as necessary to bring down inflation to its 2% target. Elsewhere, the US Federal Reserve will probably continue to reduce its tightening pace in upcoming meetings, and is set to deliver 25bps rate hikes at the next two policy meetings. The British pound stabilized around $1.24, not far from a near six-week high of $1.245 hit on January 23rd, as all eyes turn to the Bank of England’s policy announcement this week. The Bank of England is set to raise interest rates by half a point to 4.0% to tackle double-digit inflation, while markets are split on how much further rates will rise beyond that. Britain’s inflation rate moved further away from October’s 41-year high, but remained well above the central bank’s 2% target. Elsewhere, investors see a less aggressive Federal Reserve following the release of poor US economic data. Meanwhile, the risk of the UK slipping into recession amid rising interest rates, strikes and weak consumer demand continued to weigh on sentiment.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, consolidated above 3.5% as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s plans for rate hikes and the potential impact on the economy. The US GDP expanded by 2.9% in the last quarter of 2022, beating market expectations of a 2.6% advance, underscoring the economy’s resilience, and adding leeway for the Federal Reserve to extend its hawkish momentum. Still, a Commerce Department report showed that core PCE price inflation fell to a 14-month low of 4.4% in December, offering hope that inflation stateside has peaked. Money markets are now pricing an over 99% chance that the US central bank will hike rates by 25 basis points in February. At the same time, growing speculation about a recession prompted bets that the Fed will eventually cut rates later this year. The yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt has been around 3.3% since January 12th, well below a 14-year high of 4.5% hit in September 2022, as investors are coming to terms that an expected recession will force the Bank of England to pause monetary tightening. Investors believe the Bank of England will raise interest rates again to 4% on Thursday but are split on how much further borrowing costs will rise beyond that. Meanwhile, the UK consumer price inflation eased as expected to 10.5% in December, but remained well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%, while the core rate held close to October’s record high. Looking at growth, weaker-than-expected PMI numbers in January revived recession fears, with business activity falling at its fastest rate in two years, amid rising interest rates, strikes, and weak consumer demand due to the rising cost of living.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

We are heading into one of the most important weeks of the quarter, of this year 2023, with a flurry of important economic data including big ecomony data from the united states – even the us jobs data, on friday. The FED meeting on Wednesday will be followed by decisions at the Bank of England and the ECB over the course of the week. At the same time, a wave of earnings news is sweeping Wall Street, with the focus on the tech sector. AMD reports Tuesday night, followed by Meta on Wednesday night and Apple, Amazon and Google on Thursday night. Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Exxon, Ford, GM, McDonald’s, Pfizer and Starbucks are also reporting results throughout the week. It’s hardly surprising that we’re seeing some profit-taking after the massive rally. The Nasdaq is up 11% year to date with the Russell 2000 up over 8%.

However,
the first experiences in 2023 are far too short to make presumably reliable predictions, and/or the periods of professional forecasts are also too different – like at every start of any year. Nevertheless, I have now dared to do it – at the end of January 2023 and/or at the beginning of February 2023:

DOW Future long
(as a conservative base investment)

DAX Future long
(as a German patriot, without overpriced
technology companies from Silicon Valley)

incl. EURUSD long
(after the FED had already done most of its
homework in 2022 – in contrast to the ECB,
which still has to do it in 2023).

and/or long TESLA shares
– as a highly speculative admixture.

If you go long a maximum of 5% of your portfolio withthese four 4XSetUps, it sgould be wirth (from today’s perspective), more or less, until the end of 2023! Don`t you think so, also?

Of course I don’t know how the future, let alone how the price action will develop in this year 2023 either. Nevertheless, it is not important, as most market guys always assume, to anticipate the future correctly, but rather to position oneself accordingly for certain upcoming scenarios – and/or much more in doing so all imaginable (mathematically and or but also semantically to include justifiable) scenarios. And that’s what I’ve just done with our four long 4XSetUps trading capavilities. Because the inflation, the war, let alone the energy crisis, of 2022 has been a disastrous year for the economy, markets and consumers. Let’s not fool ourselves, please. And in 2023 a recession is may be to come. However, it is unclear whether it will be a hard landing or just a mild downturn. Therefore always operate with stop-lost marks to secure losses. And/Or also target price marks – even if there may be other possible profits.

All experts agree that 2022 was one thing in particular: unprecedented. For the first time in more than half a century, both stocks and bonds brought losses to investors, while consumers in Europe and Germany suffered from double-digit inflation rates in some cases. Will 2023 bring improvement? Or is the great economic collapse coming? What I do not know! But I will, also this year, every trading day, to the best of my knowledge and belief, inform you so competently that you can hardly wait to read my, our, your, next DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper again tomorrow.

Due to the numerous regular meetings of the central banks, and or at the same time the natural reporting of the quarterly figures on Wall Street, don’t forget to include the commodity price action also in your considerations, my dear, loyal readers.

Because I’ve been playing with the idea of formulating a new 4XSetUps trading capability in the UKOIL for days. Where we had already realized three profitable 4XSetUps and/or three lossy 4XsetIps last year 2022. But I currently lack the courage, and or the conviction! However, anyone who is courageous and/or has a conviction regarding the oil price action should contact me this week via email Devise2Day@gmail.com…