2023/01/25 (156) Column

Daily Scenario 4 SetUps
Are A Sisyphean Task


Regardless of whether individual exchange rates are rising/falling, and/or their yield curve is becoming more expensive/cheaper, as well as the national stock markets, it is important to me that it is important to you that you adopt a daily routine. Train yourself to behave in a certain routine way. Like an athlete, certain behavioral patterns are trained for his sport on the sports field. You too should even train yourself to behave in a certain meaningful way if you want dealing with US WallStreet, with the financial market, especially with derivatives trading (CFD`s). And the best way to do this is by also integrating my DEVISE 2 DAY Info Service.

A Greek legend tells of Sisyphus, the king of Corinth.
Sisyphus angered the gods – and they came up with a very special punishment for him.
His job was to roll a huge boulder up a mountain. The stone was larger than Sisyphus and heavy. As Sisyphus rolled it up the mountain, the stone kept slipping out of his grasp and rolling all the way back down. So the king had to keep starting over to bring the boulder up the mountain from the bottom. Sisyphus never managed to get the stone to the top of the mountain – it kept slipping and rolling down it. The saying about the work of Sisyphus comes even from this old legend greek mythology. This means a job that is so extensive, complicated and difficult that it will never be finished – and where you always have to start from the beginning. Just like dealing with US WallStreet, with the financial market, especially with derivatives trading (CFD`s).

If you want quick money on the stock exchange, you usually fall flat on your face!
Okay, of course there might be a handful of fortune hunters; but then only if you add 1000 to it.
I’m assuming – still as a realistic optimistic market guy – that a maximum of a handful of my readers (i.e. 5 out of 1000 of my readers) have found rapid success on US WallStreet. Everyone else, like me, keeps busy, learns, trains, tries things out day in and day out; to get even better tomorrow. To make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). And then hopefully with the help of my Central Bank 4XSetUps, Economic 4XSetUps, Financial Market 4XSetUps, Scenario 4XSetUps, and/or Technical Analysis XSetUps.

Scenario 4XSetUps
In the Scenario 4XSetUp I try to describe a picture of a situation that, at least in my opinion, has a significant impact on the global financial market. And try to describe in your own words the totality of the circumstances in which an event takes place. And or also circumstances that are (not) expected for the future. The 4XSetUps is a technique that can be used in your strategic planning and/or of any trading decision (buying/selling or do nothing). Possible future scenarios are developed in order to derive recommendations for compettent action and decisions. In the best case, this always overflows the subsequent technical analysis 4XsetUp in every DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper Edition.Does the poison of the current and/or rather expected key interest rate have a healing effect or not?
Is the optimism or pessimism in business justified?
Which financial market prices are currently in focus?
What is (partly) decisive in context
of the basic scenario, what drives price action?
Which technical analysis seems useful?

Not only this question, but mainly, I try to answer you
as competently as I can in every DEVISE 2 DAY Edition, including in this one today. Here’s to when the stone that was laboriously carried up, the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp, should roll down again in the coming days, weeks, months. Because in retrospect I was wrong with my entry price including target price & stop price. But what else should I do as a publisher, author, analyst and/or market guy? Right! Tomorrow, write another one for you; once again – as long as you continue to faithfully continue reading my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper.
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It`s a busy week, this 4th week of 2023. In the US with releases including the Q4 GDP growth rate, durable goods orders, the PCE price index, personal income and spending, and earnings reports. Also, flash PMI data for January will be published for the US, UK, Japan, and Euro Area countries. Investors will also follow BoC Interest Rate Decision, Germany IFO business climate and GFK consumer confidence, GDP growth rates for South Korea and the Philippines, and the inflation rate for Australia.

Australia Q4 Inflation Rate Highest Since 1990
German Business Climate Improves for 4th Month
BoC Raises Rate and Signals End of Tightening
were the most important new market informations today

The annual inflation rate in Australia climbed to 7.8% in Q4 of 2022from 7.3% in Q3 and above market forecasts of 7.5%. This was the highest print since Q1 1990, boosted by rising costs of food, automotive fuel, and new dwelling construction.

The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany rose by 1.6 points from a month earlier to 90.2 in January 2023, the fourth consecutive month of increase and the highest level since June last year. Europe’s largest economy started the year with cautious optimism amid easing inflation and an improved outlook, as strain on supply chains eased.

The Bank of Canada raised the target for its overnight rate by 25bps to 4.5% in its first meeting in 2023, as expected by markets, and signaled the end of its aggressive tightening cycle should economic developments evolve broadly with the central bank’s outlook. The Bank added that it is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening to complement the restrictive stance of the policy rate.

Today I dedicated my first page to Germany’s historic decision for main battle tank deliveries. Next to him is Elon Musk, who publishes figures for his TESLA company today; and in which we have an open long 4XSetUps.

But let’s stay with the tank deliveries, which our social-democratic, green, liberal federal government almost burst. Because of our political history, our federal government in Germany, precisely because of the Nazi past of our political ancestors, is still having a hard time in 2023. That’s meanwhile 80 to 90 years ago! And Germany 2023 is the political opposite! Which is why, as a German Croat, I cannot appreciate this fact enough! And also as an outspoken friend of Russia! And even more critical of the Kremlin’s war of aggression against Ukraine! After all, what should we – the so-called West – do but not provide Ukraine with what the government thinks it needs in order to be able to defend itself! And that’s what it’s about; at the arms delivery! That Ukraine can defend itself; because they want it. And that just in case put Putin’s Kreml propagandists in a panic!? And as a result, a further escalation level should be triggered in the media?! Anyway; Just a few days ago, Russian state television cheered Chancellor Olaf Scholz (64, SPD) for his refusal to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The Russians analyzed that he was splitting NATO and dealing a painful blow to Ukraine. The fact that Scholz is now releasing the tanks caused a propaganda shock in Russia. Kremlin propaganda miscalculated. For days they persuaded the Russians that Ukraine would not receive Leopard 2 tanks, now they lashes out and spits with rage. After all, the West is now crossing the “red line” drawn by Russian propaganda as a body – and the Kremlin is watching idly. Which should increase the uncertainty on the financial market! Could accelerate volatility in commodity prices?
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

Asian Stocks Advance
Dollar Hovers Near 8-Month Lows
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Eases Back To 3.4%

Asian equity markets rose on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street higher as expectations for less aggressive rate hikes from the Fed boosted technology and other growth stocks. Investors also reacted to regional data pointing to slowing economic activity, though China’s reopening bolstered the outlook and continued to buoy sentiment. Shares in Australia and Japan advanced, while markets in China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore remain shut for Lunar New Year celebrations.

The dollar index held around 102 on Wednesday, hovering near its lowest level in almost eight months, as rising risks of a US recession and expectations of less aggressive policy tightening from the Federal Reserve weighed on the currency. Weakening US economic data and mixed corporate earnings suggested that the broader economy is facing headwinds. Meanwhile, the country’s eased inflation bolstered bets that the Fed would further slow down its rate hikes, with money markets now pricing an over 95% chance of a 25 basis point increase at the next policy meeting.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, moved back to around 3.4%, close to levels not seen since September 2022, as mounting fears of a sharp economic downturn and prospects of a less aggressive Federal Reserve reigned appetite for government debt. Data released Tuesday showed that US business activity contracted for the seventh straight month in January, worsening concerns that the economy may be moving closer to recession.DEVISE 2 DAY
Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper
– Where I Wrote Something Wrong And/Or Something Right

Johnson & Johnson, 3M and also GM on Tuesday before the opening – and Microsoft, Texas Instrument, after the closing bell. Boeing & AT&T on Wednesday before the closing bell – Tesla & IBM after the closing bell. Mastercard on Thursday, before the closing bell – Intel & Visa, after the closing bell. As is Chevron & American Express, on Friday before the closing bell, are the biggest names on US Wall Street for quarterly results, this 4th week of 2023. In the Technical Analysis 4 SetUps I will more or less address the results; EURUSD on Sunday, DAX Future on Monday, TESLA share on Tuesday, and/or the DOW Future on Wednesday & Thursday. These are the main zopics of this week.

I remain fundamentally optimistic about the DOW Future; but not without air pockets to use an image during a flight. The future level of the upcoming 1,2 and/or 2,3 rate hikes by the FED, as well as the quarterly figures on US WallStreet, may cause air pockets – on our bullish path towards 35,000 points, this year 2023.

I chose the DOW Future as our basic investment; as it is not as tech-heavy as NASDAQ. Because I think the party on NASDAQ might be over for the time being, maybe for years to come. Because the companies are simply historically too expensive! Therefore the DOW Future and/or also DAX Future. Just classic conservative blue chips from the USA and/or Germany – who run their operative business worldwide. I also have the TESLA as a long 4XSetUp, if you will, as a volatile high beta share. If I’m wrong about that the NASDAQ will not recovering. So that in terms of profitability, like in 2022, we are not lagging behind. Because I assume that the US dollar, in 2023, should be nominally cheaper, since the Fed has already done most of its homework in 2022. In contrast to the ECB, which is likely to face a rocky hard road in 2023. Therefore also in the EURUSD long, in addition to the DOW Future, the DAX Future, and or also the TESLA share.