2023/01/24 (155) Column

Daily Financial Market 4 SetUps
Are A Sisyphean Task


Regardless of whether individual exchange rates are rising/falling, and/or their yield curve is becoming more expensive/cheaper, as well as the national stock markets, it is important to me that it is important to you that you adopt a daily routine. Train yourself to behave in a certain routine way. Like an athlete, certain behavioral patterns are trained for his sport on the sports field. You too should even train yourself to behave in a certain meaningful way if you want dealing with US WallStreet, with the financial market, especially with derivatives trading (CFD`s). And the best way to do this is by also integrating my DEVISE 2 DAY Info Service.

A Greek legend tells of Sisyphus, the king of Corinth.
Sisyphus angered the gods – and they came up with a very special punishment for him.
His job was to roll a huge boulder up a mountain. The stone was larger than Sisyphus and heavy. As Sisyphus rolled it up the mountain, the stone kept slipping out of his grasp and rolling all the way back down. So the king had to keep starting over to bring the boulder up the mountain from the bottom. Sisyphus never managed to get the stone to the top of the mountain – it kept slipping and rolling down it. The saying about the work of Sisyphus comes even from this old legend greek mythology. This means a job that is so extensive, complicated and difficult that it will never be finished – and where you always have to start from the beginning. Just like dealing with US WallStreet, with the financial market, especially with derivatives trading (CFD`s).

If you want quick money on the stock exchange, you usually fall flat on your face!
Okay, of course there might be a handful of fortune hunters; but then only if you add 1000 to it.
I’m assuming – still as a realistic optimistic market guy – that a maximum of a handful of my readers (i.e. 5 out of 1000 of my readers) have found rapid success on US WallStreet. Everyone else, like me, keeps busy, learns, trains, tries things out day in and day out; to get even better tomorrow. To make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). And then hopefully with the help of my Central Bank 4XSetUps, Economic 4XSetUps, Financial Market 4XSetUps, Scenario 4XSetUps, and/or Technical Analysis XSetUps.

Financial Market 4XSetUps
Many factors have, more or less, an influence on the financial market price development of exchange rates, yields, commodity futures, stock market futures, and/or individual stocks. That’s why I always try to describe the whole picture in every D2D output. Although I definitely don’t want to stand up and write that I can do it. No, I would rather get to the point of how individual financial market prices (not) develop independently. And or rather, to what extent other financial market prices are (not) intertwined. But the most important thing is and remains, not only for me, but also for you, for us market guys, which financial market prices have an influence on other financial market prices! Isn`t it? What do you ask yourself, while you`re following the price action?How are individual financial market prices
related to the exchange rates of their own currency?
To the yield curve?
To the stock market?
Yes even to individual single stocks?
How will individual market prices develop in the future?
Will they affect exchange rates, yield curves, the stock
market, individual stocks, even individual commodities?

These are unasked questions, which I, also in this DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper Edition, will try to answer competently for you, yes exactly for you, my dear loyal reader, not only today, but also tomorrow.

Does the poison of the current and/or rather expected key interest rate have a healing effect or not? Is the optimism or pessimism in business justified? Which financial market prices are currently in focus? What is (partly) decisive in context of the basic scenario, what drives price action? Which technical analysis seems useful?

Not only this question, but mainly, I try to answer you as competently as I can in every DEVISE 2 DAY Edition, including in this one today. Here’s to when the stone that was laboriously carried up, the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp, should roll down again in the coming days, weeks, months. Because in retrospect I was wrong with my entry price including target price & stop price. But what else should I do as a publisher, author, analyst and/or market guy? Right! Tomorrow, write another one for you; once again – as long as you continue to faithfully continue reading my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It`s a busy week, this 4th week of 2023. In the US with releases including the Q4 GDP growth rate, durable goods orders, the PCE price index, personal income and spending, and earnings reports.Also, flash PMI data for January will be published for the US, UK, Japan, and Euro Area countries. Investors will also follow BoC Interest Rate Decision, Germany IFO business climate and GFK consumer confidence, GDP growth rates for South Korea and the Philippines, and the inflation rate for Australia.

The S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI rose to 50.7 in January 2023 from 49.8 in the previous month, and above market expectations of 50.2, a preliminary estimate showed. The latest reading pointed to the first month of expansion in services activity since July, driven by technology, as well as healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, though industrial services also rebounded into growth territory. 

The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.8 in January of 2023 from 47.8 in the previous month and above market expectations of 48.5, preliminary estimates showed. The latest reading pointed to the softest contraction in factory activity since August 2022. New orders decreased at the slowest rate since last May, albeit still declining sharply; and employment accelerated.

All other PMI data you can read in today`s Economic 4XSetUps.

Another meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will take place in early February. There, the central bankers will decide on the level of the next interest rate hike. In a speech, ECB boss Christine Lagarde gave an initial insight into the future course of the ECB. Deutsche Börse’s New Year’s reception took place yesterday evening. ECB President Christine Lagarde was one of the invited speakers. The next ECB meeting will take place in just over a week (February 2, 2023). In her speech, the head of the ECB announced that the ECB intends to stay on course in order to achieve the long-term inflation target of 2 percent. However, while ECB Council member Klaas Knot recently announced increases of 50 basis points (equivalent to 0.5 percentage points) for the meetings in February and March, Ms. Lagarde left the exact increment of the key rate hike open. She merely pointed out that the inflation rate in the euro area was still too high. I personally expect another 50 basis points – at least for the February meeting. And I wouldn’t want to deny another 50 basis points for the two following meetings today either. But I don’t want to look that far ahead today, because the ECB, in contrast to the FED (and the other leading central banks), has to take many national fiscal policy issues into account in its decision-making process. Nevertheless, I think that the ECB is more likely to surprise us upwards, i.e. hawkishly, in 2023 – than downwards. In contrast to the FED, which is likely to raise 1 or 2 to a maximum of 2 or 3 25 basis points in 2023, if at all. And that`s why we will let run our long 4XSetUp trading capability, this year 2023.

Todays front page I dedicated to Elon Musk and/or his company Tesla; inclusive with the CEO of Morgan Stabney. Who called Elon an outstanding entrepreneur. Tomorrow, after the closing bell on Wall Street, Tesla’s new earnings results will be out. And because we’re in TESLA share long with a 4XSetUps trading capability, and we’re staying with it for over 91 USD /through this hole year 2023), let`s hope that he will continue to be able to keep Tesla profitable. More on that in today’s Technical Analysis 4XSetUps…
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

Dollar Hovers Near 8-Month Lows
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Bounces Back To 3.5%

The dollar index held below 102 on Tuesday, its lowest level in almost 8 months, as rising risks of a US recession and expectations of less aggressive policy tightening from the Federal Reserve weighed on the currency. Recent US economic data have suggested that the broader economy is facing headwinds. At the same time, easing inflation bolstered bets that the Fed would further slow down its rate hikes, with money markets now pricing an over 95% chance of the fed funds rate increase by 25 basis points at the next central bank’s meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also said the upcoming moves and the forecasted decline in inflation turned policy close to “sufficiently restrictive”. 

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, consolidated around 3.5%, as hawkish remarks from several Fed policymakers threw some cold water into expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon slow its aggressive tightening campaign. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, considered a dove, said rates would need to stay elevated to bring down inflation to its 2% target. Still, investors are not blindly buying this tightening narrative, with speculation about a recession prompting bets that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates later this year.DEVISE 2 DAY
Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper
– Where I Wrote Something Wrong And/Or Something Right

Johnson & Johnson, 3M and also GM on Tuesday before the opening – and Microsoft, Texas Instrument, after the closing bell. Boeing & AT&T on Wednesday before the closing bell – Tesla & IBM after the closing bell. Mastercard on Thursday, before the closing bell – Intel & Visa, after the closing bell. As is Chevron & American Express, on Friday before the closing bell, are the biggest names on US Wall Street for quarterly results, this 4th week of 2023. In the Technical Analysis 4 SetUps I will more or less address the results; EURUSD on Sunday, DAX Future on Monday, TESLA share on Tuesday, and/or the DOW Future on Wednesday & Thursday. These are the main zopics of this week.

I remain fundamentally optimistic about the DOW Future; but not without air pockets to use an image during a flight. The future level of the upcoming 1,2 and/or 2,3 rate hikes by the FED, as well as the quarterly figures on US WallStreet, may cause air pockets – on our bullish path towards 35,000 points, this year 2023.

I chose the DOW Future as our basic investment; as it is not as tech-heavy as NASDAQ. Because I think the party on NASDAQ might be over for the time being, maybe for years to come. Because the companies are simply historically too expensive! Therefore the DOW Future and/or also DAX Future. Just classic conservative blue chips from the USA and/or Germany – who run their operative business worldwide. I also have the TESLA as a long 4XSetUp, if you will, as a volatile high beta share. If I’m wrong about that the NASDAQ will not recovering. So that in terms of profitability, like in 2022, we are not lagging behind. Because I assume that the US dollar, in 2023, should be nominally cheaper, since the Fed has already done most of its homework in 2022. In contrast to the ECB, which is likely to face a rocky hard road in 2023. Therefore also in the EURUSD long, in addition to the DOW Future, the DAX Future, and or also the TESLA share.