2023/01/23 (154) Column

Daily Economic 4 SetUps
Are A Sisyphean Task


Regardless of whether individual exchange rates are rising/falling, and/or their yield curve is becoming more expensive/cheaper, as well as the national stock markets, it is important to me that it is important to you that you adopt a daily routine. Train yourself to behave in a certain routine way. Like an athlete, certain behavioral patterns are trained for his sport on the sports field. You too should even train yourself to behave in a certain meaningful way if you want dealing with US WallStreet, with the financial market, especially with derivatives trading (CFD`s). And the best way to do this is by also integrating my DEVISE 2 DAY Info Service.

A Greek legend tells of Sisyphus, the king of Corinth.
Sisyphus angered the gods – and they came up with a very special punishment for him.
His job was to roll a huge boulder up a mountain. The stone was larger than Sisyphus and heavy. As Sisyphus rolled it up the mountain, the stone kept slipping out of his grasp and rolling all the way back down. So the king had to keep starting over to bring the boulder up the mountain from the bottom. Sisyphus never managed to get the stone to the top of the mountain – it kept slipping and rolling down it. The saying about the work of Sisyphus comes even from this old legend greek mythology. This means a job that is so extensive, complicated and difficult that it will never be finished – and where you always have to start from the beginning. Just like dealing with US WallStreet, with the financial market, especially with derivatives trading (CFD`s).

If you want quick money on the stock exchange, you usually fall flat on your face!
Okay, of course there might be a handful of fortune hunters; but then only if you add 1000 to it.
I’m assuming – still as a realistic optimistic market guy – that a maximum of a handful of my readers (i.e. 5 out of 1000 of my readers) have found rapid success on US WallStreet. Everyone else, like me, keeps busy, learns, trains, tries things out day in and day out; to get even better tomorrow. To make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). And then hopefully with the help of my Central Bank 4XSetUps, Economic 4XSetUps, Financial Market 4XSetUps, Scenario 4XSetUps, and/or Technical Analysis XSetUps.

Economic 4XSetUps
Many factors have, more or less, an influence on the financial market price development of exchange rates, yields, commodity futures, stock market futures, and/or individual stocks. That’s why I always try to describe the whole picture in every DEVISE 2 DAY Edition. Although I definitely don’t want to stand up and write that I can do it. No, I would rather like to get to the point of how the individual economy (not) works independently. And or rather, to what extent individual national economies are (not) intertwined with each others. What colleagues write about the USA, Europe and/or China is also important to me. Which I not only like to continue quoting, but also paraphrase at times because I have a different opinion. But the most important thing is andremains, not only for me, but also for you, for us market guys, what effects individual indicators have on the financial market price development? And what indicators are important? GDP, Employment Figures, Industrial Production, Consumer Spending, Inflation, Home Sales, Home Building, Construction Spending, Manufacturing Demand, Retail Sales are for better or for worse the most important indicators. How do the economy relate to the prime rate? How do the economy relate to the exchange rates of their own currency? To the yield curve? To the stock market? Yes even to individual stocks? How will the individual indicators in the future? Will they affect exchange rates, yield curves, the stock market, individual stocks, even individual commodities? Will the financial market price catch up with the indicator? Will the financial market price even develop contrary to the indicator? These are unasked questions, which I, also in this DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Market Newspaper Edition, will try to answer competently for you, my dear loyal reader.

Does the poison of the current and/or rather expected key interest rate have a healing effect or not? Is the optimism or pessimism in business justified? Which financial market prices are currently in focus? What is (partly) decisive in context of the basic scenario, what drives price action? Which technical analysis seems useful?

Not only this question, but mainly, I try to answer you as competently as I can in every DEVISE 2 DAY Edition, including in this one today. Here’s to when the stone that was laboriously carried up, the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp, should roll down again in the coming days, weeks, months. Because in retrospect I was wrong with my entry price including target price & stop price. But what else should I do as a publisher, author, analyst and/or market guy? Right! Tomorrow, write another one for you; once again – as long as you continue to faithfully continue reading my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper.
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It`s a busy week, this 4th week of 2023. In the US with releases including the Q4 GDP growth rate, durable goods orders, the PCE price index, personal income and spending, and earnings reports. Also, flash PMI data for January will be published for the US, UK, Japan, and Euro Area countries. Investors will also follow BoC Interest Rate Decision, Germany IFO business climate and GFK consumer confidence, GDP growth rates for South Korea and the Philippines, and the inflation rate for Australia.

No key economic data was released today.
That`s why probably many listened even more closely to what ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday evening, before some hours. And she delivered by vociferously stating that further interest rate hikes were essential: “We have made it clear that ECB interest rates still have to rise significantly and steadily in order to reach sufficiently restrictive levels and that they must remain at these levels for as long as necessary,” said Lagarde at the Deutsche Börse annual opening in Eschborn. While energy inflation has recently been declining, underlying inflation continues to rise: “It is therefore crucial that inflation rates above the ECB’s 2% target do not become entrenched in the economy,” Lagarde said. “We need to lower inflation – and we will achieve this goal,” stressed the ECB President. “Better late than never!” I apologize – but I can’t hold back my disappointing bitterness. Because the ECB simply reacted too late to the homemade euro inflation. Anyway? Meanwhile the ECB is outspoken hawkish and/or on the right path – on a really really good path! Even if it is likely to be more rocky and/or lengthy in 2023 that it was for FED in 2022. And that`s why we are definitely staying long in long EUR/USD 4XSetUp trading capability, as described in detail in yesterday’s 4XSetUp Technical Analysis.
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

Dollar Hovers Near Seven-Month Low
US Stocks Rise For 2nd Session
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Bounces Back To 3.5%

Dollar Hovers Near Seven-Month Low
The dollar index bottomed around the 102 neighborhood, hovering close to levels not seen since May 2022, as concerns about a US recession and prospects of a less aggressive Federal Reserve spooked investors away from the greenback. Recent economic data, such as those on the housing and manufacturing sectors, have suggested that the broader economy is facing rising headwinds. At the same time, signs of inflation easing in the US fuel speculation that the Fed will further slow down its rate increases, with money markets now pricing an over 95% chance that the central bank will hike its funds by 25 basis points in February. Investors also look ahead to a flurry of US data that could offer clues about the rate path, including the Q4 GDP growth rate, durable goods orders, the PCE price index, and consumer data.

US Stocks Rise For 2nd Session
The Dow added almost 400 points on Monday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively, as investors paused to reassess the outlook for monetary policy while bracing from a busy week of earnings. Recent economic data have magnified concerns that the US economy is near a recession while boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will continue to slow the pace of policy rate increases. Meanwhile, the earnings season will kick into a higher gear this week with several big tech names, including Microsoft, Tesla, IBM, and Intel, reporting. So far, the Q4 earnings season has painted a mixed picture of the health of the US economy. Some companies, like Netflix, reported strong growth, while big banks, including JPMorgan Chase, have set aside more money for expected defaults.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Bounces Back To 3.5%
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, consolidated around 3.5%, as hawkish remarks from several Fed policymakers threw some cold water into expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon slow its aggressive tightening campaign. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, considered a dove, said rates would need to stay elevated to bring down inflation to its 2% target. Still, investors are not blindly buying this tightening narrative, with speculation about a recession prompting bets that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates later this year.DEVISE 2 DAY
Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper
– Where I Wrote Something Wrong And/Or Something Right

Johnson & Johnson, 3M and also GM on Tuesday before the opening – and Microsoft, Texas Instrument, after the closing bell. Boeing & AT&T on Wednesday before the closing bell – Tesla & IBM after the closing bell. Mastercard on Thursday, before the closing bell – Intel & Visa, after the closing bell. As is Chevron & American Express, on Friday before the closing bell, are the biggest names on US Wall Street for quarterly results, this 4th week of 2023. In the Technical Analysis 4 SetUps I will more or less address the results; EURUSD on Sunday, DAX Future on Monday, TESLA share on Tuesday, and/or the DOW Future on Wednesday & Thursday. These are the main zopics of this week.

I remain fundamentally optimistic about the DOW Future; but not without air pockets to use an image during a flight. The future level of the upcoming 1,2 and/or 2,3 rate hikes by the FED, as well as the quarterly figures on US WallStreet, may cause air pockets – on our bullish path towards 35,000 points, this year 2023.

I chose the DOW Future as our basic investment; as it is not as tech-heavy as NASDAQ. Because I think the party on NASDAQ might be over for the time being, maybe for years to come. Because the companies are simply historically too expensive! Therefore the DOW Future and/or also DAX Future. Just classic conservative blue chips from the USA and/or Germany – who run their operative business worldwide. I also have the TESLA as a long 4XSetUp, if you will, as a volatile high beta share. If I’m wrong about that the NASDAQ will not recovering. So that in terms of profitability, like in 2022, we are not lagging behind. Because I assume that the US dollar, in 2023, should be nominally cheaper, since the Fed has already done most of its homework in 2022. In contrast to the ECB, which is likely to face a rocky hard road in 2023. Therefore also in the EURUSD long, in addition to the DOW Future, the DAX Future, and or also the TESLA share.