2023/01/03 (140) Column

What, If
The Price Action 2023 !?


A rising US dollar, including a more expensive us yield curve in Chicago, ensured, in the past year 2022, that the bottom line was that the stock markets on Wall Street in New York became cheaper.
A classic course during an upcoming and/or then current rate hike cycle!
But what will happen in 2023?

I dont know.
And not only that; I also don’t have any basic current expectations!
But I definitely, in any case, do not assume that in 2023 we will experience more or less the same standard deviation in the individual asset classes, let alone a concurrent correlation and/or beta volatility, as in 2022.

I don`t want to formulate another long position in us dollar index at this point in time. Certainly not over 100. Possibly maybe, but only if the US dollar becomes 10%-15% cheaper again in the course of 2023. May the DXY is traded again by 92 points, yes even by 83-84 points. Because the FED has already done most of its homework in 2022, as the first of the world’s leading central banks. In contrast to the other major central banks, especially to the central banks that are calculated in dxy against the USD. For the further course of 2023, a fundamentally restrictive monetary policy is imminent – and that also relative to the Federal Reserve. Which, to put it mildly, could possibly be a reason for many wealthy global asset managers to buy the individual currencies from the DXY. Yes, even go long in their stock market, including possible currency gain. Because we can generally assume that the yield curve in these currencies will become more expensive in 2023. Just like more or less in our different eurozone yield curves, of different countries. Precisely because of the stagflation that will certainly continue into the second half of 2023, let alone the first half of 2022. In contrast to the US economy – which, with regard to the topic of US stagflation, already can get out of stagflation in the first half of 2023. And that`s why don`t loose your nerves about our EURUSD long trading capability fir this year 2023.
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It will be a busy week in the US with center stage taken by labour market report, FOMC meeting minutes, ISM manufacturing and services PMI, foreign trade, factory orders, and Jolts Job Openings. Elsewhere, inflation rates for December will be released for Euro Area, Germany, France, Netherlands, Turkey, Switzerland, Philippines, and Indonesia. Finally, investors will pay attention to manufacturing PMIs from China, India, Spain, South Korea, Canada, Italy, and Switzerland.

About central banks it should be realx week; only the BOI (Bank of Israel) and/or the PNB (Poland National Bank) have their regulary monthly meetings, this week. The BOI should raise up their rates wit 0.5% to 3.75% and/or the PNB should hold their rate at 6.75%.

Whatever, take a looh also on the Financial Markets 4XSetUps this week. Like every week, meanwhile I have prepared for you up to 18 different charts (including technical indicators as well as analyses); so that you can make even better trading decisions (buying/selling aor not trading) for the coming quarter (next 13 weeks). And this week once again about 5 shares of our german blue chip dax index; namely XETR-QIA (Qiagan), XETR-RWE (Rwe), XETR-SAP (Sap), XETR-SHL (Siemens Health), and/or XETR-SIE (Siemens).

And don’t forget to read all Technical Analysis 4XSetIps this week also, because I decided to formulate 3 new long 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities this year alongside our long 4XSetUp Dow Future.
Which? From page 51 more (from Sunday to Wednesday)…
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

European Stocks Rise For Second Day
FTSE 100 Outperforms European Peers
Turkish Lira Holds At Record Low
Turkish Stocks Extend All-Time High
Chinese Yuan Hits 4-Month HighsDXY Bounces Back Towards 105
US Stocks Start Year on Sour Note

European Stocks Rise For Second Day
European equities advanced for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with the regional STOXX 600 closing more than 1% higher above the 430 mark, driven by gains in real estate and financials stocks. Investors welcomed CPI data from Germany showing inflationary pressures in Europe’s largest economy eased in December after the government’s initiative to lower household natural gas bills came into effect. Regarding individual share price movement, Germany-based company Hellofresh added over 9% to lead the STOXX 600. Domestically, the benchmark DAX 40 rallied roughly 0.9% to 14,200 points, driven by gains in the energy sector.

FTSE 100 Outperforms European Peers
Equities in London kicked off a holiday-shortened week sharply higher, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 adding almost 1.5% to around 7,560 points and outperforming its European peers, driven by gains in real estate and consumer discretionary stocks. Investors took advantage of lower valuations following a dismal 2022, while lower-than-expected inflation figures for December in Germany added to the chipper mood. Still, the sentiment remains clouded by a worsening outlook for growth and prospects of further interest rate hikes. On the corporate side, Rolls-Royce Holdings and Ocado Group were among the biggest gainers on the FTSE 100, up roughly 5.6% and 4.6%, respectively.

Turkish Lira Holds At Record Low
The Turkish lira has been changing hands around a record low of 18.7 per USD since October, ended 2022 down more than 40% against the greenback, and extending a 77% plunge in 2021 as the central bank continued its unorthodox rate-cutting policy through the year against a backdrop of soaring prices and trade imbalances. TCMB slashed its key rate by 1000 bps since September 2021 demanded by President Erdogan to stimulate growth in industry and exports. However, the CB paused the rate-cut cycle and left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 9% in December, saying that the current policy rate is sufficient and that it expects disinflation to start. Annual inflation rate fell to a 9-month low of 64.3 percent in December 2022, from 84.4% in November. Meanwhile, according to the November results of the Survey of Market Participants, inflation expectations increased for the short term by 0.13 points to 37.47% but decreased for the 2-year ahead period, by 0.41 points to 20.76%.Turkish Stocks Extend All-Time High
The Borsa Istanbul 100 index continues to break fresh record highs to trade above the 5600 level in January, as investors keep on using equities as a hedge against surging consumer prices and a plunging lira and Turkish residents sought assets to store their savings.

Chinese Yuan Hits 4-Month Highs
The offshore yuan appreciated past 6.9 per dollar, reaching its strongest levels in four months as China’s swift reopening sparked hopes of a faster economic recovery, though a surge in domestic Covid cases kept sentiment in check. President Xi Jinping said in his New Year’s address that the country faces tough challenges ahead in the fight against Covid-19 and acknowledged divisions in society that led to rare spontaneous protests. The yuan also strengthened even after a private survey showed that China’s December manufacturing activity contracted the most in three months due to Covid-related disruptions.

DXY Bounces Back Towards 105
The dollar strengthened sharply against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, moving towards the 105 mark in the run-up to minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, which could provide cues on its policy tightening path. The US central bank hiked its federal-funds rate by a cumulative 4.25% in 2022, the most since 1980, bringing borrowing costs to the highest level in 15 years. Investors are now wary of an imminent recession and a potentially prolonged period of sluggish economic growth. The December nonfarm payroll report on Friday will also be a key driver for the greenback this month while paving the way for the Fed’s policy stance. This dollar’s strength was seen across the board, with some of the most pronounced buying activity against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

US Stocks Start Year On Sour Note
Major US stock indices failed to sustain early gains and closed in the red on Tuesday, the first trading day of the year, amid persistent concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates and hurt growth to bring inflation down to its target. The Dow erased a near 200-point gain and closed below the flatline and the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, as the 4% decline in crude oil prices pressured energy giants. In the meantime, the Nasdaq 100 underperformed and dropped 0.7%, remaining under pressure after sliding 33% in 2022 as aggressive monetary tightening continues to hit the rate-sensitive tech sector. Tesla plummeted 12.4% after the electric-vehicle maker missed its 2022 delivery target.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Due to the death of our German Pope Benedict from Bavaria, I will want to keep this week a little bit shorter. Because I feel obliged to travel to Rome – and to pay him my last respects.

As a German Croat, of Roman Catholic parents, from the former SFR Yugoslavia, it is a matter of course for me to travel to Rome. And attend the funeral ceremony. For better and/or for worse, this is due to the Franciscan religious upbringing of my parents, especially my father Ivan and his brother Darko, who baptized me when I was a small child. And because my father always took me to every funeral ceremony of a fellow human being he knew, even as a small child. And by the way always reminded me how important it was and is for him – and that he had been taught it that way by his father.

That`s why no much talk about our new 4XSetUps this week in this year 2023. But for the time being with a little restraint. Because there are more important things than making money on the financial market. And or to help my fellow human beings to earn money on the financial market, also thanks to my info brokerage. What I really really like to do. But this week everything is different.

But let me write again briefly that we will be repositioning ourselves this week for the year 2023. And without another 4XSetUp in the UKOIL – but still long in the Dow Future. In addition, I think it might be worth formulating a long 4XSetUps for the EURUSD exchange rate, for the DAX Future, and for the TESLA share. What I will also do during the week…