2022/12/28 (136) Column

Taking a long-term view
is more important than ever
when it comes to stocks!


A long-term view is more important than ever when it comes to individual shares, so that at the end of 2022, for 2023, we should keep some basic things in mind so that we don’t get distracted from day-to-day business. Certainly times will be even rougher or at least remain rough in the coming months. First and foremost for the so-called FAANG companies – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and/or Google – may be also even the entire NASDAQ. The long-term view and/or thus the long-term functioning business models are always decisive for the success of any investment. And that always in a fundamental comparison to the currently valued share price. And does anyone truly believe that in ten years we will no longer need Alphabet with Google, Google Maps, YouTube and its other services? Or no longer the office software from Microsoft?
And will we no longer order everything from Amazon in the future? 
And what will be with Facebook? With What`sApp? Instagram?
And/Or also all with the other exhibitionism platforms?
Twitter, with owner Musk, may be the famous one?
And what about Nvidia? 

Less turnover and profit does not immediately mean a crisis: not even on the NASDAQ.
Although we investors and traders have been more than spoiled in terms of growth over the last few years, almost the last two decades, this does not necessarily mean the end of the world. Doesn’t that mean a crisis? Because if you look at the results of the tech giants in the US, it confirms what more and more writing colleagues and/or investors and brokers are also perceiving. Like, for example, Stefan Risse, capital market strategist at Acatis Investment: “These companies are still making real money, have high profit margins and a functioning business model. Of course there are sales and profit declines here and there. A special case is certainly Meta, and it always has been for me. This company is much more in tune with the zeitgeist than companies like Microsoft, Alphabet or Amazon, which have almost reached utility status in our everyday lives. They too need to lower expectations in this economic environment. But let’s be honest “These are luxury problems. We are too spoiled by the past,” he stated in one of his columns a few weeks ago. And building on his knowledge I would like to add. No! The NASDAQ is not fundamentally in a crisis! But higher interest rates simply make it more difficult to refinance your own company with borrowed capital due to higher interest rates. And since some companies cannot refinance their interest costs from earnings, let alone cash flow, such companies are fundamentally overvalued! So that we cannot necessarily speak of a crisis of business models. But from a fundamental overvaluation. So that conservative freedom-loving like me in 2023 as well as in 2022 should continue to focus on individual stocks from the Dow Jones. Even if, of course, a more risky recovery in the NASDAQ cannot be ruled out! But that’s not what I’m assuming today…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

This week looks set to be a relaxed week in terms of new old central bank informations. Only the South American Central Bank of Uruguay, the BCU (Banco Central del Uruguay) will hold its regular monthly meeting again on Friday – and publish its interest rate decision. The major central banks of the most traded currencies will not meet again until next year, 2023. The BOI and also NBP start next week. On Monday, the 2nd the BOI (Bank of Israel) wilö start the yeaor 2023. Following, by the Poland`s NBP (National Bank of Poland) on Wednesday, the 4th. As one of the major central banks. Our long GBPUSD 4XSetUp trading capability closed in profit last week. So that we currently have no open 4XSetUp in the forex market. After we were also able to make a very good profit in DXY in the course of 2022. For a new long 4XSetUp trading capabolity in GBPUSD i would wait until next days and/or weeks.

However, in the last week of 2022 the focus will shift to stocks as there would be very few important economic releases. Investors are hoping that the stocks will stage the Santa Claus rally, bringing some respite to the markets. In the US, housing data and several regional PMI readings will take center stage. Also, Japan will release retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment rate while in South Korea, Spain, & Russia the focus will be on inflation.

In the Financial Markets 4XSetUps I have put once again 5 more stocks from our german DAX40 index, this week. As well as XETR-MRK (Merck) on sunday, XETR-MTX (MTU AERO AUTOTEILE) on monday, XETR-MUV2 (MUENCHENER RÜCKV) on tuesday, XETR-PAH3 (PORSCHE) on wednesday, an/or XETR-PUM (PUMA) on thursday, you can get an detail overview of until 18 different pov`s (point of views) about the price action of every single share. As far as the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps are concerned, i will focus us only to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, the Dow Future, CBOT_MINI-YM1!, this week. Since we were ripped out of all 4XSetUps, last week. So let us first formulate our basic expectations for 2023, this week.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

Russian Shares Halt 4-Session Win Streak
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% lower at 2,140 on Wednesday, halting four consecutive sessions in the green with broad pressure from energy producers, miners and metallurgists, and banks as increased economic isolation continued to deteriorate Russia’s macroeconomic backdrop. Gazprom shares fell 1% after the gas giant published data showing a 46% yearly drop in gas exports during 2022, setting a gloomy precedent for 2023 as European gas prices hover below pre-war levels and are less likely to offset lower volumes. Oil shares also booked losses after President Putin confirmed that no exports will be made to countries that abide by the G7’s price cap, while soaring Covid cases from major Russian importer China hampered demand further. The MOEX is set to close the year 44% lower, leading losses for global stock benchmarks.

FTSE 100 Outperforms European Peers
Equities in London started a holiday-shortened week on a high note, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing just shy of the 7,500 mark and outperforming its European peers, helped by utilities and industrial stocks. The export-oriented index has enjoyed robust gains amid higher commodity prices as China’s reopening spurred investor optimism for a rally in the last week of 2022. In terms of individual price movement, big miners Antofagasta and Fresnillo were among the top gainers, up 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively.

European Equities Fail to Hold Early Gains
European stocks turned negative to close Wednesday’s session lower, with the regional STOXX 600 down 0.1% and the domestic DAX 40 losing roughly 0.5%, dragged by energy stocks, as investors remain cautious amid lingering concerns over a recession and rising interest rates. Optimism about China’s reopening and hopes for an end-of-year rally started to fade amid persistent worries that further tightening financial conditions will drag the developed world into a recession next year. NN Group and Hexatronic Group were among the biggest losers in the STOXX 600 index, down 4.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

Spanish Stocks Cut Gains to Close Slightly Lower
The IBEX 35 failed to hold early gains and fell 0.1% to close at 8260 on Wednesday, tracking its European peers lower, amid concerns over the reopening in China. Traders worry China’s reopening would add further inflationary pressures to the global economy at a time major central banks are already set to continue to tighten monetary policy, while fear an increase in the number of infections and more restrictions around the world. Domestically, the Spanish government announced measures to alleviate the effects of the war in Ukraine,

CAC 40 Ends Lower on Wednesday
The CAC 40 fell 0.6% to close at 6510 on Wednesday, tracking its European peers lower, with investors turning cautious heading into the end of the year as they track the covid situation in China and the economic outlook for next year. Traders worry China’s reopening would add further inflationary pressures to the global economy at a time major central banks are already set to continue to tighten monetary policy, while fear an increase in the number of infections and more restrictions around the world. The benchmark stock index in France is on track to end 2022 9% lower.

Italian Stocks Extend Retreat
The FTSE MIB index closed a choppy session 0.4% lower, in line with broad losses for other European equity benchmarks as investors reassessed expectations of China’s economic reopening while awaiting the resumption of the Senate’s vote tomorrow on the Italian government’s Budget Law for 2023. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s first budget raises the deficit for next year to 4.5% of GDP, allocating more than €21 billion in tax breaks and bonuses to help businesses and households deal with the energy crisis. Utility shares dropped in the session with Hera retreating 2.1% as investors gauged household energy demand expectations depending on the level of government support in the budget.

China Stocks Climb on Covid Shift
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.4% to around 3,078 while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.5% to 11,035 on Tuesday, rising for the second straight session after China announced that it will end quarantine requirements for inbound travelers starting on Jan. 8, sparking hopes for a faster economic recovery. Investors also digested data showing industrial profits in China fell 3.6% year-on-year in the January-November period.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

A super exciting year 2022 is coming to an end! And regardless of our (not) successful 4XSetUps trading capabilities, I would like to thank each and every reader here. Because if you, yes you, didn’t read my DEVISE 2 DAY daily, every day, then financing my newspaper wouldn’t be worth it for me. Let alone for my nine online brokers.

For the last week I will focus on the DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index); even the Dow Future, the CBOT_MINI-YM1!. Nevertheless, I will also want to give us a detailed overview of the GBPUSD pair again. But don’t want to formulate new 4XSetUps trading capability. Because I think it would make more sense to let the last week expire first. And then in January 2023, sooner or later, go long/short again.

Anyway, the DJI (Dow Jones Indistrial Average Index) was the best stock market in the US last year 2022. And that, fundamentally argued, quite rightly so. Because the least vulnerable companies are listed in this  stock market, which many colleagues refer to as zombie companies. So as a company that cannot refinance your liabilities and interest from earnings let alone cash flow. Because that is one of the most crucial fundamental points of every stock valuation in an environment of higher interest rates. And that’s why I generally prefer the DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index) over the NASDAQ for 2023 again. Because I perceive a lower downside risk in the DJI than in the NASDAQ. Precisely because of the refinancing problems that have just been formulated for many technology companies that are listed in the NASDAQ. However, we will observe, analyze and evaluate in every issue, including in 2023, how far the DJI can rise and/or perform better than the NASDAQ in 2023. To formulate new old 4XSetUp trading capabilities regularly…