2022/12/14 (126) Column

Navigate Financial Market News
Every Trading Day Like A Pro,
That`s Why 4XSetUps Daily


On my homepage you can get very concrete help for self-help in relation to your own competence (time frame & trading framework) and/or own personality (instructions for self-instruction). And that not in the form of specific strategies & tactics that will guarantee you wins. No! Rather, we market guys increase our conditional probability of learning to organize a profit for ourselves with the help of CFD`s, due to certain thoughts, due to certain words spoken, and or also due to certain actions. So that after reading every DEVISE 2 DAY Edition – including this current one – with all modesty, we can confidently say to ourselves, to other people, and/or to the world: “I am right here right now, meanwhile truly a competent (market guy) personality! I now know how and what I trade (buy/sell or do nothing) on us wallstreet, on the financial market, while my cfd derivate trading (information processing and transaction execution) on each trading day. Even if I I can only take 1 hour on weekdays. Because I have a main job every trading day!”

Before we all market guys come to a trading decision (buy/sell or do nothing) on us wallstreet, on the financial market, especially by handling trading derivatives (in the form of CFD`s), we always read, analyze and/or evaluate market news inclusive all others market-price-action-related informations. And that’s what it’s all about, on the us wallstreet, on the financial market, especially in derivatives trading (in the form of CFD`s). Because what we market guys do in the 1h and/or 2h of every trading day is always only information processing and/or transaction execution. Independence, of the transaction execution we market guys don`t have anything to do, on trading days, as even navigate market news and/or other price-relevant informations. Reading, analyzing and/or evaluating market news incl. all others market-price-action-related informations to make the right trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing).

That`s It. The way and the goal; the goal and the way; of my info service! Everything else on my homepage…
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It`s a more as usual average busy week in the united states with the Fed Interest rate decision on wednesday and/or the inflation report on tuesday. Also, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Mexico will hold monetary policy meetings all on thursday. And/Or the UK will release inflation data, on wednesday also. Investors will also follow ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany, on Tuesday. And much more retail sales and industrial production for China, on thursday. And on friday, finally, flash PMI readings will be released for major developed economies including the US, UK, Euro Area, and/or Australia.

UK Inflation Comes Down
A Little Faster And/Or Deeper Than Expected,
But Still Around 40 Year Highs Above 10 Percent
The annual inflation rate in the UK eased to 10.7% in November of 2022 from 11.1% in October which was the highest since October 1981.
Core inflation rate in the UK which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices slowed to 6.3% in November of 2022, down from October’s reading of 6.5% and below forecasts of 6.5%. So, from this Economic 4XSetUps point of view no reason once again not still to stay long in our GBPUSD 4XSetUp trading capabiloty. Nothing new in the West, if you will. The US economy will recover faster than the UK – as interest rates have been raised faster and/or higher. And that’s why us inflation comes down relatively faster, compared to inflation in the uk. Which naturally goes hand in hand with the monetary policy of both central banks, even the FED (federal reserve) and/or BOW (bank of england) in an ambivalent manner.

The US Federal Reserve Bank ED
Raised Their Fed Funds Rate By 0.5% To 4.25%-4.5%,
And WallStreet Doesn`t Seem To Be Able To Anything With It
It was today the 7th consecutive rate hike, following 4 straight 0.75% increases. Policymakers reinforced that ongoing hikes in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. The Fed now expects interest rates to reach 5.1% next year, 4.1% in 2024, and 3.1% in 2025, a higher level than previously indicated. Meanwhile, GDP growth projections were revised higher for this year (0.5% vs 0.2%) but lowered for 2023 (0.5% vs 1.2%) and 2024 (1.6% vs 1.7%). Inflation forecasts were revised higher for 2022 (5.6% vs 5.4%), 2023 (3.1% vs 2.8%) and 2024 (2.5% vs 2.3%). What that means for our long CBOT_NIBI-YM1! 4SetUp trading capability, in the Dow Jones Future, as always, in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

Wall Street Ends Volatile Session Lower
The Dow lost 150 points on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, as investors digested the latest decision on monetary policy and subsequent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The FED raised its federal-funds rate by a half percentage point to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a 15-year high. At the same time, the peak for the federal funds rate is now projected at 5.1% next year, with cuts in rates coming only in 2024. Meanwhile, Powell said at the news conference following the decision that interest rates would stay elevated for some time but that the central bank is getting close to reaching the end of a tightening cycle. On the corporate side, Tesla fell over 2% after Goldman Sachs cut the price target for the electric vehicle maker’s stock. Delta Air Lines jumped almost 3% after the Atlanta-based carrier announced that it expects to double its profit in 2023.

Dollar Rebounds Following Fed Rate Hike
The dollar index approached the 104 level, rebounding from the four-month low of 103.5 after the Federal Reserve hiked the fund’s rate by 50bps to 4.25%-4.5%, as expected, and raised projections for future borrowing cost levels. The central bank signaled that its key interest rate will be at 5.1% by the end of 2023, well above September’s projections of 4.6%, and challenging expectations that interest rate cuts would start in the third quarter of next year. On Tuesday, the index lost nearly 1% after November’s inflation data slowed more than expected to 7.1%.

10-Year Treasury Yield Eases
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell back to under the 3.5% mark, approaching the three-month low of 3.4% touched on December 7th as projections of a sharp slowdown in the US economy drove investors to challenge the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals in its December meeting. The Fed delivered a 50bpsinterest rate hike to 4.25%-4.5% as widely expected, slowing from the four consecutive 75bps increases since June. Meantime, the Summary of Economic Projections pointed to sharp downward revisions to the US GDP growth and expectations of higher unemployment in the coming years, as policymakers increased projections for the Federal funds rate to reach and stay at 5.1% in 2023 from prior estimates of 4.6%. In the meantime, the inversion of the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year bond yields widened past 76bps, approaching the 1981-high of 85bps touched on December 7th.

UK Bond Yield Edges Higher Ahead Of BoE Meeting
The yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt edged up to 3.3% in mid-December, moving further away from a near two-month low of 2.9% hit at the end of November, as investors digested key economic data from the UK ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision due on Thursday. The latest CPI report showed the UK inflation rate slowed in November by more than expected to 10.7% from October’s 41-year high, while the core rate also eased to 6.3% from a record high of 6.5% seen the month before. The reading was consistent with BoE policymakers’ views that the peak in inflation would probably be around 11% in October, supporting expectations that the central bank will be raising rates by a softer 50 bps when it meets on Thursday. Earlier this week, data showed the UK unemployment rate edged up to 3.7% in the August-to-October period, and regular pay rose by a stronger-than-expected 6.1%, while monthly GDP figures showed the British economy expanded at a faster-than-expected 0.5% in October.

British Pound Eases From 6-Month High
The British pound weakened past $1.24, easing from the six-month high of $1.245 as the Federal Reserve’s 50bps rate hike and upward revision in interest rate projections strengthened the greenback. Still, the Bank of England is set to announce on Thursday a 50bps rate hike after a jumbo 75bps increase in the previous meeting, which was the biggest rise in borrowing costs in 33 years. The decision is expected shortly after the cooler-than-expected domestic CPI print, showing that inflation slowed to 10.7% in November from the 41-year high of 11.1% in the prior month. Elsewhere, central banks in the Euro Area, Switzerland, and Norway are also expected to increase interest rates. On the economic data front, the UK jobs report showed the unemployment rate edged up to 3.7% in the August-to-October period, while regular pay rose by a stronger-than-expected 6.1%, the biggest gain since records began in 2001 excluding jumps during the COVID-19 period.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Our short UKOIL trading capability since 95$ under 100$ is still volatile and/or fast as excepted in the money. Above 5$ up and/or down a week seems like to get normal. That`s why we`re attracting our expected proft this week, bwith the help of an higher stop proce. We hedge our profits in the UKOIL at least at 80$. An handful of dollars around our $70 target, so let`s take a quick look in the rearview mirror and set the stop prive at $80. So that we will have at least 15$ safe of this short 4XSetUp in our trading account. However, I no longer assume that we will trade UKOIL above 80$ again, let alone 90$, yes 100$. On the contrary! And that´s why I’m lowering the target price to 50$ by the end of 2023. As I assume that in our so-called West, in 2023, inflation will also come down. And the price of oil will also come down ambivalently. And that regardless of the economic situation and/or demand from China. Because, from this weeical point of view I don`t expect any further and worser escalation in Eastern Ukraine either, so that the 90$, even 100$ and higher, which we traded in early 2022, hopefully in retrospect was an historical standard deviation; just an extraordinary bad mad scenario of all involved actors. Just only a cruel and/or unnecessary war.

In our long CBOT_MINI-YM1! 4XSetUps we reaised our stop price, some weeks before, also! In fact, at the level of the trading day, in October 2022, when the inflationrate numbers for September 2022 was released. Because on this trading day CBOT_MINI-YM1! crashed by down to 1000 points. So at price actions above 32780 points we can now speak of a completed short-term technical formation and can argue as bulls with a technical bullish picture at least. And that’s the main thing to watch until the end of this year 2022. And if CBOT_MINI-YM1! comes back after fall under 32780 points i formulate this week a new long 4XSetUp trading capability ahead. But I don`t want to to anticipate too much. Let´s leave that for now and let the CBOT_MINI-YM1! price action talk for it`s own…