2022/12/01 (122) Column

Because I’m An Imperfect Market Participant,
That`s Why 4XSetUps Daily


On my homepage you can get very concrete help for self-help in relation to your own competence (time frame & trading framework) and/or own personality (instructions for self-instruction). And that not in the form of specific strategies & tactics that will guarantee you wins. No! Rather, we market guys increase our conditional probability of learning to organize a profit for ourselves with the help of CFD`s, due to certain thoughts, due to certain words spoken, and or also due to certain actions. So that after reading every DEVISE 2 DAY Edition – including this current one – with all modesty, we can confidently say to ourselves, to other people, and/or to the world: “I am right here right now, meanwhile truly a competent (market guy) personality! I now know how and what I trade (buy/sell or do nothing) on us wallstreet, on the financial market, while my cfd derivate trading (information processing and transaction execution) on each trading day. Even if I I can only take 1 hour on weekdays. Because I have a main job every trading day!”

With our own (market guy) ego – i.e. our own personal subjective individual relationship to ourselves, i.e. our own personal subjective individual relationship to other market guys, and/or i.e. our own personal subjective individual relationship to the current market price development (in real time) – not only our will, not only our life energy, stands and/or falls the china well-known Qi, but rather also our portfolio value assets. So that the relationship to oneself, the relationship to other market guys, and/or the relationship to the current market price (in real time) is ambivalently reflexive, which one should make self-confident on a daily basis. In order to fundamentally sharpen one’s own awareness first of all.

That`s It. The way and the goal; the goal and the way; of my info service! Everything else on my homepage…
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts About Market Price Actions
This week, FED Chairman Powell has a much-anticipated speech, on Wednesday. In contrast to most of my foreign esteemed colleagues, I am pretty positive about the FED, in relation to their monetary policy – in their fight to bring the us inflation down. However, I expect to be confirmed with our long 4XSetUp in the Dow Future. Nevertheless tighten the stop price. Because if you read my DEVISE 2 DAY Financial Market Online Newspaper regularly, then you know that I assume that the financial market price is always wrong. Either overvalued or undervalued – and/or in relation to the us monetary policy has gone too far forward and/or is may be also lagging behind. That`s why tighten the stop price up to 32.800 points in the YM1!-CBOT_MINI. And read, analyze, and evaluate the FED speech. And rather take into account the reaction of all others too. But more on that next week. So, let the market price action happens at first, this week– incluisve around the important us unemployment numbers on friday. So that I can think about new old thoughts at the weekend – and (not) readjust our YM1!-CBOT_MINI 4XSetUp next week.
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Some Last Market Price Actions News

Brent Crude Steady at $87
Brent crude futures gave up early gains to trade little changed around $87 a barrel on Thursday, after jumping as much as 2.5% to $89.2 early in the session, as investors weigh prospects of a recovery in demand and further supply cuts from OPEC+. Investors await an OPEC+ meeting on December 4th amid recent speculation of more production cuts, despite little likelihood of a policy change, Reuters reported citing a source with direct knowledge of the matter. In November, the cartel curbed supplies by just over 1 million barrels a day, the most since 2020, according to Bloomberg. Traders also await any developments on an agreement for a cap for Russian oil, with EU governments tentatively setting a $60 a barrel price cap, although it still needs to be agreed by unanimity. Meanwhile, China has signaled a softening stance in the fight against the coronavirus, sparking hopes that the world’s top crude importer could be swifter reopening its economy while offering an upbeat outlook for oil.

MOEX Remains Stuck in Narrow Range
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index hovered around 2,200 points on Thursday, trading in a tight range since November, as investors continued to monitor developments over a proposed price cap on Russian crude. At the same time, markets reacted to Federal Reserve comments on interest rates while the Russian currency was squeezed by the end of a favorable tax payment period. Regarding individual share price movement, Polymetal International and Mostotrest Pao were among the biggest gainers, up nearly 4% and 3%, respectively. Conversely, Rusolovo Pao dropped almost 6% to be among the top losers.

FTSE 100 Underperforms European Peers
Shares in London ended Thursday slightly down, with the benchmark FTSE 100 closing around the 7,550 level, as declines among energy and financials offset gains in utilities. In the lack of fresh catalysts, investors continued to parse the latest remarks from the Federal Reserve. In a recent speech at the Brookings Institution, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that it may be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate increases as soft economic data hinted that its aggressive policy is taking effect on the economy. Pearson, down over 5%, was the biggest laggard on the FTSE 100 after a downgrade to ‘neutral’ at Exane. Rolls-Royce Holdings was also among the worst performances, falling 4% after Barclays initiated stock coverage with an ‘overweight’ rating.

European Stocks Close Near 6-Month High
European equities rose for a second consecutive session on Thursday, the first trading day of December, with theregional STOXX 600 and the domestic DAX 40 index rising roughly 0.5% each to close near levels not seen since early June, driven by sharp gains among technology stocks. Investors welcomed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and China’s softening stance on Covid. Powell indicated on Wednesday that smaller rate increases could begin in December, raising the odds for a 50bps increase in the fed funds rate this month. Meanwhile, VP Chunlan said China’s efforts to combat the virus are entering a new phase.

Stocks in Argentina Hit All-time High
Merval increased to an all-time high of 170359

Euro Tops $1.05
The euro topped $1.05 to start the December month, a level not seen since late June, and extending a 5.5% gain in November, which was its best month since September 2010. The common currency has benefited from a fall in the USD as investors bet the Fed will slow the pace of tightening from its December meeting, while also lowering expectations for the fed funds rate peak. In Europe, it is still unclear what the ECB will do in the next meeting. The latest inflation report for the Eurozone showed that annual inflation slowed to 10% in November, while the core CPI stood unchanged at 5%. Despite some early evidence that inflation is slowing among developed economies, it remains still uncomfortable high for policymakers. The ECB remains committed to raising interest rates to tame price growth, while analysts stay divided on whether the central bank will hike borrowing costs by a 75bps for the third time when it meets in December or will opt for a smaller 50bps increase.

Gold Approaches Key 1,800 Mark
Gold climbed to fresh daily highs around the $1,800 per ounce mark, closing on its highest level since early July, buoyed by fading Treasury yields and sharp dollar depreciation. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the US core personal consumption expenditures price index, eased to 5% in line with expectations, in the latest signal that inflation could be peaking. Such data came on top of a somewhat dovish speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, which prompted markets to price in an over 80% chance of a smaller 50 bps hike in December.

SENSEX Books Fresh Record
Equities in India extended gains for the eighth consecutive session on Tuesday, with the S&P BSE SENSEX closing at a new record high of around 63,300 as expectations for a slower monetary policy tightening pace pushed almost all sectors into the green. In a recent speech at the Brookings Institution, DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Our long DXY trading capability since 96 points with a stop price by 110 points breaked last two weeks before. So it will be exciting and/or much more thrill still to watch the DXY this week. Because, if the DXY comes back above 110 points, i will rewrite our long DXY trading capability. But let me stay honest – like last both week; i don`t belive in it anymore. I`m much more afraid that we`ll see 100 points, may be lower, faster and/or volatiler as i, as you, as the most of us probably, could imagine. However short UKOIL trading capability since 95$ under 100$ ist still volatile in the money. 10$ up and/or down a week seems like to get normal. And/Or our long 4XSetUps in the Dow Futire – even CBOT_MINI-YM1! since 30.565 points – above 30.000 points, is in the money too. Like our long 4XSetUp in the GBPUSD cross-pair also; we`re we on since 1.1278 GBPUSD above 1.0924 GBPUSD. For our long 4XSetUps in the Dow Future I have the stop price in CBOT_MINI-YM1! Raised last week before. In fact, at the level of the trading day, in October 2022, when the inflationrate numbers for September 2022 was released. Because on this trading day CBOT_MINI-YM1! crashed by down to 1000 points. So at price actions above 32780 points we can now speak of a completed short-term technical formation and can argue as bulls with a technical bullish picture at least. And that’s the main thing to watch until the end of thos year 2022. So, just let profits run over it – and realize profits below 32780 points at the latest. So that, with a little bit luck, we`ll still trading above 32780 into year 2023? That`s our hope, for the rest of this year 2023…

In the US, the labor report will take the central stage thos week – in context about new numbers from the usa – 2nd estimate of GDP growth, ISM manufacturing PMI, CB consumer confidence, and personal income and spending. Also, attention will be given to inflation rate releases for Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, Spain. Finally, GDP growth rates for Q3 will be published for Canada, Turkey, India, Brazil, and Switzerland, and PMIs for China, Canada, India, South Korea, and Australia.