2022/10/04 (081) Column

„Price Development Of The Stock Market
disappointed in the first half of 2022!“
„Will the second one get better?“


What worries you most, valued investors and/or traders, my dear readers, when it comes to your current open positions on us wallstreet, in the financial market? Of coruse, there can be several reasons, because the world has become more dangerous than ever before. And because everything is so unsafe and/or risks are lurking everywhere, there is a growing need among the population for more security.

However, independently of what price action is currently making you particularly insecure: whether interest rate increases, the global economy, and/or geopolitics? One is sure – at least for me. No uncertainty is a short-term nature! Rapid solutions, let alone in the second half of 2022, are pure wishful thinking – an illusion. That’s why I don’t turn my heart into a murderer’s den and/or formulate my skepticism about my short-to- medium-term stock market prospects as a fundamentally constructive, realistically optimistic character, as I am said to be. Because without an exact time limit as far as the future financial market price development is concerned, the unsettled restlessness of the other financial market participants, the unsettled restlessness of the stock markets, transfers to oneself faster than one sometimes realizes. Our german central bank, a member of the ECB (european central bank), the Deutsche Bundesbank, which the whole economic miracle of our financial grandparents, after the end of the 2nd World War, organized and/or financed, recently reported also unusually clearly not a good outlook,until the end of 2022. And seems to want to prepare us for what, for better or for worse, should be more or less officially certain in the next few weeks: “Overall, the inflation rate could reach a magnitude of 10 percent in autumn,” says the current monthly report. I hope not! Because I can’t do more about this; because it’s not in my power…

DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Some Last Price Action News

Wall Street Rally Gains Steam
The Dow added almost 700 points on Tuesday, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively, on hopes that weaker-than-expected US economic data would temper the extreme hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. The number of job openings in the US fell more than expected in August, signaling that tighter financial conditions could be cooling the job market. This data came a day after a gauge of US manufacturing from ISM showed activity declined to the lowest since May 2020. Investors also welcomed a fading dollar and government bond yields, which brought some respite to beaten-down technology and other high-growth stocks. Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to advocate for further rate hikes. New York Fed Bank President John Williams, Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson, and San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly echoed that reducing inflation is the top priority and that the job is far from done.

Gold at 3-Week High Of $1,700
Gold broke above $1,700 an ounce, the highest in three weeks, as Treasury yields fell sharply and the dollar was knocked back by weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data which raised hopes that the US central bank may slow the pace of its rate increases. Now investors look ahead to the US nonfarm payroll report, which can further reduce bets on rate hikes if it continues to show a cooling job market. The latest data showed job openings in the US dropped more than expected to the lowest since June of 2021. The yellow metal reached its lowest level since April 2020 below $1,620/oz last week, as soaring interest rates spooked investors away from the non-yielding metal.

Russian Stocks Turn Negative
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early gains to trade 0.5% down at the 2,035 level on Tuesday,partially erasing last session’s rebound from the sharp sell-off that saw the broad index lose nearly 20% in September. Selling pressure returned to blue-chip commodity-backed stocks and banks traded in Moscow, with VTB Bank, Rosneft, and PhosAgro dropping over 2%. In the meantime, investors continued to monitor developments regarding the war in Ukraine and sanctions from Western states, driving Russia’s export-heavy economy to become increasingly isolated. The halt of gas sales to the West and Europe’s looming oil embargo erased a large amount of Moscow’s revenues and caused a sharp and uncharacteristic budget deficit according to the latest data. Earlier, the Kremlin announced it would raise tax exports on commodities to collect RUB 3 trillion to cover its spending gap and increasing war chest.

Dollar At 2-Week Lows
The dollar index retreated for a third day to near two-week lows of 111.1 on Tuesday on bets the Fed may slow the pace of future rate hikes, after fresh ISM Manufacturing PMI figures showed an unexpected slowdown in US factory growth. Money markets now expect the central bank to raise rates by 125bps by March, below 165bps seen last month. Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to advocate for further rate hikes. New York Fed Bank President John Williams said on Monday that while there are signs of cooling inflation, underlying price pressures remain elevated, reinforcing the case for further monetary tightening.

Euro Rebounds From 20-Year Lows
The euro appreciated towards $0.99 in October, moving further away from a 20-year low of $0.95 hit at the end of September. Investors bet the ECB will continue to raise interest rates in the coming months after the inflation rate in the Euro Area hit an all-time high of 10% in September, well above the central bank’s target of 2%. ECB President Lagarde recently said the central bank would keep tightening its monetary policy, even as the region faces an economic downturn, with several ECB members calling for another 75 basis point hike later this month. Elsewhere, weak US manufacturing data highlighted a looming global recession and reduced chances of a faster policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours – Where I Was Wrong, Whre I Was Right

On Monday before two weeks we closed our 5 open 4XSetUps with a lost. Like our MSFT long trading capability (from 03/07/2022) with a lost of 41.26 $ (last price 244.74 $ as we went long at 285 $) at once. Our GBPJPY long trading capability (from last monday 09/12/2022) with a lost of 2.04 GBPJPY (last price 163.21 GBPJPY as we went long at 165.25 GBPJPY). Our VOW3 long trading capability (from last tuesday 09/13/2022) with a lost of 6.54 € (last price 145.46 € as we went long at 152.00 €). Like our LVMH long trading capability (from last wednesday 09/14/2022) with a lost of 12.4 € (last price 637.5 € as we went long at 649.9 €). And/Or last but not least also our GS long trading capability (from last thursday 09/15/2022) with a lost of 1.05 $ (last price 326.21 $ as we went long at 327.26 $). So we`re only long in the DXY and/or short in the UKOIL this week. But in these both trading capabilities at least with still an existing booking profit currently.

However, this week’s focus on the CBOT_MINI-YM1!
More in the Technical Anaylsis 4XSetUps once again every day, this week.