2022/09/28 (079) Column

„I don’t want to brag
that I’m a central bank expert, economic expert, and financial market expert, but…“


Don’t get me wrong! But sometimes I feel like a teacher, like a sports coach on the touchline, like a son trying to explain the same thing to his father, like a nephew trying to explain the same thing to his uncle. But my counterpart, for whatever reason, does not want to realize my competence in practical, pragmatic, successful action! Is he afraid that I`m wong about it? May be right about it, in retrospect? Even though I don’t want that! Nice side effect – not an issue. My ego feels flattered. But I get even more satisfaction from thinking the right thing, writing the right thing, doing the right thing! And if the majority then also benefits from it, wonderful! What are we waiting for?

Not only theoretically, but also practically, the fed could break the neck of us inflation, for example, by making the far too much available own money, which they had lent to the american people with the help of a low interest rate, more expensive again. In such a way that the us yield curve is of course also becoming more expensive. I formulated it theoretically and practically consciously because the fed under Paul Volcker had already realized it after the second oil price shock in the 1980s, under Ronald Reagan’s watch, in the white hoise, back than: The US base interest rate was increased to an incredible 20 percent at the time. So that the return on ten-year US government bonds was at times pushed up to 16 percent. At the time, our Deutsche Bundesbank was also pursuing a restrictive, hawkish price stability policy – in our former west germany. While east germany was an closed socialisitic country for it´s own; named GDR (german democratic republic). However, the united states and/or west germany paid the price of the recession, as well as falling financial markets, temporarily. I don`t know an another method to get out of our actuallity inflation, today. Like, in the 1980`s back than! If you know it better, send me an e-mail Devise2Day@gmail.com. And/or go public with it, with your knowledge, to help us all…

DEVISE 2 DAY 48h – Some Latest Price Action News

US Equities Gain 2% As Yields Fall
US equities shot up Wednesday, with all three major US averages adding about 2% (Dow +1.88%, S&P +2.0%, Nasdaq +2.1%) as investors took advantage of lower valuations following a week-long selloff that sent Wall Street to new bear-market lows. The market movement came in tandem with easing Treasury yields, which, in turn, prompted investors to pile into tech and other high-growth companies. Energy shares rose significantly, tracking WTI crude’s over 4.5% rise. Still, growing concerns about the impact of dizzying inflation, a strong dollar, and rising interest rates on corporate America kept gains in check. Apple fell over 1% after the tech giant warned that it would trim production of its new iPhones this year amid signals of weak demand. On the flip side, shares of Biogen jumped almost 40% after the company Eisai said their experimental Alzheimer’s drug significantly mitigated the effects of the disease.

Gold Rises Over 2%
Gold contracts gained over 2% in trading Wednesday, climbing above the 1660 USD/Oz mark as the dollar weakened, with the DXY falling nearly 1.3%. Investors are retreating into safe-haven assets as they prepare for the typically tumultuous month of October. Additionally, US pending home sales fell 2% in August, and contract signing fell YoY by double-digit percentages in each region of the US, signaling that Fed tightening is having the intended contractionary effect.

FTSE 100 Ends Above 7,000
Equities in London regained traction on Wednesday, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 bouncing back above the 7,000 mark, driven by real estate and utility stocks. The market movement came after the Bank of Englandstarted new emergency quantitative easing to deal with a tumult in the gilt market and a sharp deterioration in the pound triggered by a dubious fiscal plan recently announced by the UK government. Regarding individual price share movement, Land Securities Group and SEGRO were the biggest gainers with 7% and 6%, respectively.

Russian Stocks Extend Rebound
The MOEX Russia index closed 10 points higher at 1,965 on Wednesday, extending last session’s slight rebound after a steep sell-off took the index to 5-year lows earlier in the week. Referendums to join Russia carried out in four Ukrainian regions pointed to overwhelming majorities in favor, raising concerns that Moscow will respond aggressively to Kyiv’s recent counterattack as the territories will be formerly seen as domestically annexed. Last week, President Putin ordered the country’s first military mobilization since World War II and emphasized Russia readiness to use its nuclear weapon arsenal, triggering Russian financial assets to crash. In the meantime, Gazprom fell nearly 3% as new tax laws to cover Moscow’s budget deficit will result in RUB 1.3 trillion in taxes for the gas giant over the next three years.

European Equities Recover From 2-Year Lows
European equity markets closed mostly higher on Wednesday, with Germany’s DAX and the benchmark Stoxx 600 up from 2-year lows due to an uptick in risk appetite after the Bank of England announced plans to purchase long-dated UK government bonds to stabilize financial markets. Stock indexes across the region had touched fresh multi-year lows earlier in the session on concerns over surging borrowing costs amid stubbornly high inflation, weakening economic growth, and an intensifying energy crisis. Meanwhile, European authorities continued to investigate major leaks into the Baltic Sea from two Russian gas pipelines. Among single stocks, shares of fish farmers such as Mowi, Leroy Seafood and SalMar dropped between 15% and 25% after the Norwegian government proposed a resource tax on salmon and trout farming of 40% from the tax year 2023. On the economic data front, German consumer morale hit another record low, while households’ sentiment in France touched a nine-year low.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours – Where I Was Wrong, Whre I Was Right

On Monday lasz week before we closed our 5 open 4XSetUps with a lost. Like our MSFT long trading capability (from 03/07/2022) with a lost of 41.26 $ (last price 244.74 $ as we went long at 285 $) at once. Our GBPJPY long trading capability (from last monday 09/12/2022) with a lost of 2.04 GBPJPY (last price 163.21 GBPJPY as we went long at 165.25 GBPJPY). Our VOW3 long trading capability (from last tuesday 09/13/2022) with a lost of 6.54 € (last price 145.46 € as we went long at 152.00 €). Like our LVMH long trading capability (from last wednesday 09/14/2022) with a lost of 12.4 € (last price 637.5 € as we went long at 649.9 €). And/Or last but not least also our GS long trading capability (from last thursday 09/15/2022) with a lost of 1.05 $ (last price 326.21 $ as we went long at 327.26 $). So we`re only long in the DXY and/or short in the UKOIL this week. But in these both trading capabilities at least with still an existing booking profit currently.

However, this week’s focus on the CBOT_MINI-YM1!
More in the Technical Anaylsis 4XSetUps once again every day, this week.