2022/09/21 (074) Column

„Let’s Lose
As Little Money As Possible
With Our 4XSetUps“


With the Back To School season already underway, the start of the NFL season, both of which always start sooner or later before the Jewish New Year, we have an incredibly exciting fall 2022 just around the corner. Because many variables that indirectly have nothing to do directly with US WallStreet are likely to move US WallStreet (un)consciously (un)intentionally (un)spokenly until the soccer World Cup in Qatar. Until Christmas. Many indirect variables that have nothing to do directly with the margins of the individual companies, and thus their fundamental stock valuation. What variables I am referring to? What politicals variables I am referring to? The upcoming new political elections in Italy & Israel. The mid-term elections in the USA. And the still high green Biden inflation, which threatens to take hold of the US economy like a self-inflicted cancer.

The general elections in Italy 2022 will take place on September 25th. After their dissolution by the President Sergio Mattarella on July 21, 2022, both chambers of parliament will be re-elected early.

After the 2021 Knesset election, Jair Lapid and Naftali Bennett signed an eight-party coalition agreement.
As a result, Bennett should initially serve as prime minister until August 2023 and then cede the post to Lapid. The new cabinet was approved by Parliament by a vote of 60-59 on June 13, 2021, and Bennett was sworn in as Prime Minister. After the government lost its majority, the Knesset decided unanimously on June 30, 2022 to dissolve itself and call new elections for November 1, 2022. As a result, the previously alternate Prime Minister Lapid became the new Prime Minister as early as midnight (local time) on July 1, 2022, and the previous Prime Minister Bennett became the new alternate Prime Minister. The government will remain in office until a new government is formed after the November election.

The 2022 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022.
During this midterm election year, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. Thirty-nine state and territorial gubernatorial and numerous other state and local elections will also be contested. This will be the first election that will follow the 2020 census.

Even if I can’t understand it directly from the market price actions, on the financial markets, it feels natural that the upcoming political uncertainty, and also the high inflation, in our so-called West, is also manifested in the prices. There are plenty of reasons not to be bullish on US Wall Street. And that on every trading day: Ukraine and Taiwan, energy crisis and inflation, signs of recession and central bank concerns, etc. Sothat the word “uncertainty” not satisfy me. But if you look up to synonyms and their meanings, you come across an unusual number of words that makes it clear that convincing concrete forecasts are currently hardly possible. Here is a selection: Danger, fear, risk, threat, doubt, problem, weakness, caution, skepticism, confusion, inhibition, unpredictability. Do you notice anything, my DEVISE 2 DAY readers? Yes, all of these terms can be applied to our US WallStreet! To any moves on more and/or less every financial market price action today – and likely will continue to do so tomorrow. And the bad thing is, not only on US Wall Street but also in every single supermarket now, as far as inflation is concerned. Not to mention every gas station. And in retrospect this has been continuous since Sleepy Joe Biden, with his US Democrats, has been trying to politically organize the opposite of what his predecessor Donald J. Trump left him politically.

DEVISE 2 DAY 48h – Some Last Price Action News

South Korea 10Y Bond Yield Hits 10-Year High
South Korea 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to a 10-year high of 3.878%, mirroring the US Treasury yield that hit 3.56% Tuesday, its highest level since April 2011, ahead of the likelihood of another 75-basis-point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve at the end of its monetary policy meeting later in the day. Meantime, the Asian Development today Bank cut its 2023 growth outlook for the South Korean economy to2.3% from 2.6% in the July estimate, amid growing risks of surging inflation and low GDP growth as global uncertainty lingered. Further, the country’s exports showed signs of weakening, with Reuters reporting sales from South Korea fell 8.7% yoy during the first 20 days of September while purchases grew by 6.1%.

Australian Shares Fall As Fed Decision Looms
In the first trading session hours, the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1% to below 6,750 on Wednesday, turning back lower toward two-month lows and taking cues from a weak overnight session on Wall Street, as caution dominated sentiment ahead of an expected rate hike from the US Federal Reserve.

Japanese Shares Track Wall Street Lower
The Nikkei 225 Index fell 1% to below 27,500 on Wednesday, sliding toward its lowest levels in two months and tracking overnight losses on Wall Street, as investors turned cautious ahead of an expected interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve. Investors also continued to monitor the yen after former Ministry of Finance chief Tatsuo Yamasaki said authorities are ready to intervene in the currency markets at any time and does not need to wait for a nod from the US. Nearly all sectors declined in the first trading session hours..

US Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Decision
US stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors moved to the sidelines ahead of a key Federal Reserve decision, where it is expected to announce another outsized rate hike to curb high inflation. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all near breakeven. In extended trading, In regular trading on Tuesday, the Dow fell 1.01%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.13% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.95%, with all three benchmarks closing at their lowest levels in 2 months. All S&P sectors declined, led by real estate, materials and consumer discretionary. Stock reversed gains from earlier this week as the Fed is expected to signal its firm commitment to fighting inflation, while the third quarter earnings season also loomed over the markets. More about the Dow Future, our 4XSetUps Trading Capability in the CBOT_MINI-YM1! In the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp…DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours – Where I Was Wrong, Whre I Was Right

On Monday we closed our 5 open 4XSetUps with a lost. Like our MSFT long trading capability (from 03/07/2022) with a lost of 41.26 $ (last price 244.74 $ as we went long at 285 $) at once. Our GBPJPY long trading capability (from last monday 09/12/2022) with a lost of 2.04 GBPJPY (last price 163.21 GBPJPY as we went long at 165.25 GBPJPY). Our VOW3 long trading capability (from last tuesday 09/13/2022) with a lost of 6.54 € (last price 145.46 € as we went long at 152.00 €). Like our LVMH long trading capability (from last wednesday 09/14/2022) with a lost of 12.4 € (last price 637.5 € as we went long at 649.9 €). And/Or last but not least also our GS long trading capability (from last thursday 09/15/2022) with a lost of 1.05 $ (last price 326.21 $ as we went long at 327.26 $). So we`re only long in the YM1!, in the DXY and/or short in the UKOIL this week. But in these two open trading capabilities at least with still an existing booking profit currently.

However, this week’s focus is on the Fed meeting. And or that of the BOE after it was moved due to the death of Queen Elizabeth. Therefore, I focus daily on the YM1! in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps. Also in DXY and/or UKOIL if something extraordinary happens. But the fight about 30.000 in YM1! has top top priority…