2022/09/14 (069) Column

„The Second Half Of 2022
Will Not Be Much Better
Than The First Half Of 2022.“


The Second Half Of 2022 Will Not Be Much Better Than The First Half Of 2022

Don’t think that I always know it better! Maybe sometimes? But then always of if we`re looking back.
Because when I write, I don’t think to myself: “I know it better!” but mostly talk to myself: “No one has put it that way before. And/or point it with words and numbers like I. That´s why that could help my readers to make even better decisions (buy/sell or do nothing)! Better my readers than others…” Don’t believe that either that the stock market professionals know it better and better (even just to a certain extent) exactly how things will continue. Why!? Because they`re getting paid better for it?! Not at the moment anyway. Because there are just too many question marks. So that we, as short and medium-term investors and traders who, in retrospect, would like to stay in a 4XSetup trading capability in the long term, shouldn’t imagine that we know better! “I don’t know!”, a sentence that, if meant sincerely honestly, bitterly destroys our ego. But we are free inside. So that we, as imperfect market participants, can learn to navigate faulty market prices even better. And that full of appetite, like after a good meal, intrinsically proactive. What I call my art of war in the financial market.

Even a considered review of the course of 2022 so far shows how inconsistent the US stock markets have developed so far. Young actors with smartphones no longer know why veterans saying “Go butter, go cheese” (= anything goes, metaphor for a trend). Outliers up and/or down, in every asset class! Whether currency, yield curve, stock markets, individual stocks, individual commodities, even cryptocurrencies?
There is always something that has risen, something that has fallen! Today as well;
Isn`t it?

Prominent financial market participants think in a similar way and formulate their market observations in a deliberately cautious manner. Sometimes you have to read their statements at least twice to understand the concrete opinion. Excuse me if you instinctively emotionally rationally include me into this. But I don’t want to write you anything that I instinctively, emotionally, rationally, not stand behind! Even if you wake me up from bed at three in the morning. So that I can tell you: “It’s in the last DEVISE 2 DAY Edition! Allow me, to let me get some more sleep…” Because the numerous diverse combinations of geopolitical tensions, persistently high inflation, rapidly declining economic momentum and/or cornered central banks will not fewer. And I’m not younger either. “Those who have fallen well behind the curve offer a challenging environment for investors,” it said, for example, in the weekly analysis by Allianz Global Investors. Challenging, if I interpret it correctly, means difficult, nothing for the timid. And the thought leader Hans-Jörg Naumer adds: “From a fundamental point of view, this still suggests an overall cautious attitude towards risky investments.” So I only want to add the words of an old stock exchange veteran from my home country Germany. In the case of Hermann Kutzer, I have been listening to him again and again for almost 25 years meanwhile. Even if I don’t always put his words into practice. And that too when he recently commented: “Be patient and act selectively, my friends of the wallstreet. Disappointments due to hopes that have flared up in the meantime that the Fed could proceed a little less restrictively than assumed can also not be ruled out. The government bond markets are moving between the Antipodes of increased risks of inflation and now rising risks of recession. No easy navigation!”
May the price action is with us!

DEVISE 2 DAY 48h – Price Action News

Wall Street Closes Marginally Higher
US stocks booked marginal gains moments before the closing bell on Wednesday, as investors continued to digest yesterday’s hot inflation report and consequent concerns that the Fed may further accelerate its rate-hiking path. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, while the Dow recovered from a 200 point loss to close flat. The Labor Department’s consumer price index report showed that monthly CPI unexpectedly rose 0.1%, against analysts’ expectation of a 0.1% contraction. The data raised prospects of an even more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, with Fed funds futures now placing a 20% likelihood of a full percentage point hike. Meanwhile, another report showed that producer prices in the US decreased for a second month in August. Selected tech shares and growth stocks corrected slightly higher after leading yesterday’s plunge. Also, higher prices for crude oil supported a sharper rebound for energy shares.

European Stocks Close Mostly Lower
European equity markets closed mostly lower on Wednesday, with Germany’s DAX down 1.2% and the benchmark Stoxx 600 0.8% dragged down by a nearly 30% slump in warehouse equipment manufacturer KION Group after a warning profit saying it expects to report a third-quarter loss due to supply chain shortages and rising energy and material costs. Also, Uniper shares declined by over 18% on news the German government is considering nationalizing the utility giant. Meanwhile, retail stocks gained support from Spanish Inditex, which reported a 24.5% jump in six-month sales and a higher profit; and energy shares closed higher as crude prices advanced. Meanwhile, the energy crisis remained in the spotlight, with President Ursula von der Leyen saying the EC is proposing measures to cut electricity use, a cap on revenues of low-cost electricity generators and discussing a gas price cap. The measures are expected to raise more than €140 billion for member states to tackle the energy crisis.

Turkish Stocks Decline Sharply From Fresh High
The Borsa Istanbul 100 index closed at 3,450 on Wednesday, falling sharply from the fresh record of 3,715 hit on Monday after profit taking in banking shares drove lenders to plunge over 9% on average, the most in 18 months. Banks traded in Istanbul have seen sustained growth since Q3 of 2021 as investors mounted on the sector to hedge against soaring inflation and the lira.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours – Where I Was Wrong, Whre I Was Right

As a principled conservative freedom lover, i will be violating one of my principles this week.
And live my highest principle out, which is: “Sometimes you have to go against your own principles!”

What happened?! What happened!? I took some e-mails from my readers to heart; due to your criticism that my recent issues are bland and boring.
Not in what I write, but in terms of the number of various 4XSetUps Trading Capabilities. Which I hereby expressly do not contradict; that’s right. But I figured I’d use a smaller numbers 4XSetUps Trading Capabilities a try. Like an old US Wall Street veteran. And not like a young green soldier who, with wide blue eyes and/or running water in his mouth, can’t wait to go to war when he gets up in the morning. I don’t want my DECISE 2DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper to satisfy your thirst for adventure, my lovely dear readers. Rather, I would like to help you so that, after reading each edition, you not only feel more informative and competent, but actually truly are. And thus make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or no trade).

But okay, admittedly; Count me in. After all, I write my thoughts primarily for my readers. Yes, also for you. right for you too. And I’ll just make sure that we’ll have an average of one or two handfuls of open 4XSetUps in the future! Although sometimes at 44 years I feel like Danny Glover (“I’m too old for this shit!”) from the 4-part Hollywood police cinema action movie Lethal Weapon. Who can hardly wait for his police colleagues to finally send him into retirement. Because of the everyday theather. But what else am I supposed to do? I’ve been dealing with US WallStreet for more than half my life, (in)directly (un)successfully…

However, basically I’m still bullish on the USD. Everything fits; about the USD index for us (compared to all major currencies from the index basket). And that’s why I want to secure our profits, because they have accumulated better than originally thought. By that I mean take our long 4XSetUps Trading Capability profits at the latest at 107 points. At 106.99 points and lower, stay neutral for the time being. And long again at 107.01 points and/or above; if the USD index falls down and/or comes back. A concrete Technical Analysis 4XSetUp will be available again next week. Because this week, in each DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper, there will be new long 4XSetUp Trading Capability of various individual stocks, a single currency pair, and/or a stock market sector indices. In addition to the renewed long 4XSetUp Trading Capability in the DOW JONES Future, from to the start of this week…