2022/08/24 (062) Column

New Thinking, New Speaking And/OR,
Above All, New Acting, When It Comes
To Ukraine/Russia Is Required! Isn`t it?


New Thinking,  New Speaking And/OR, Above All,
New Acting, When It Comes To Ukraine/Russia Is Required! Isn`t it?

The longer Russia’s war of aggression in eastern Ukraine continues, the more tangible the geopolitical effects of this military conflict become. What does the war mean for us in Europe? Especially for us here in my home country Germany? But of course also for all other European countries? And how should we deal with this war with all Europeans – individually in harmony with our neighbors? And then precisely in terms of its economic policy effects? Who organized our political ancestors “thank God” since the end of World War II, sooner or later, more or less, better than average when you look at the whole world!

I don’t know how to phrase it?
But sometimes I feel really uncomfortable in my own skin!
Although most of my fellow human beings don’t believe that because they always think that I have a bright disposition and the room usually lights up when I walk through the door. But there are also dark times without shining, above all, when I think about the war in eastern Ukraine i.e.. And I’m still trying to give my readers (new) useful information along the way. Just like hopefully now. And that too when I write to you that I currently feel like Marty! Marty who? No not Marty McFly from the science-fiction trilogie “Back To The Future” – but rather like Marty, from the comic trilogies “Madagascar”. Marty is a very likeable zebra. He is usually very happy, full of life and in a good mood. He is also very adventurous, there is never enough action in life for him. Furthermore, Marty is usually very relaxed, but if things get too colorful for him, he can also become short-tempered. He’s also the only one who didn’t panic when Alex, Melman, Gloria and he found out they were in the wilderness. When the plane crashes in Madagascar 2, we learn that Marty has an I-Pod that Alex broke. Marty is also the one who came up with the idea of living in the wilderness. Marty loves the wilderness and is an outspoike freedomlover. He is Alex’s best friend, although they often fight the Madagascar comic movies. But when it comes down to it they stick together and help each other out.

My basic political opinion on the subject of war has not changed in this year 2022, according to the Gregorian calendar. Entirely after the Chinese philosopher and/or strategic or tactical general, who formulated his “Art of War” as early as 500 years before Christ. And nailed it, to use my own words, with the realization that the purpose of any war is peace. And that every leader has to be defended. Because if every man involved would stick to it, then there would never be a war. Thanks modern communication technologie like today even only bilateral negotiations between political leaders of all countries, all around the world. Even like the UN (United Nations). Because before the war, the political business is: negotiate bilateral agreements – and stick to them. Just like after every war.

I rigorously formulated my personal individual subjective point of view regarding Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine already during the beginning of hostilities, in several DEVISE 2 DAY Editions. And have never tried to use the conflict as the subject of tactical verbal maneuvers and/or abrupt course changes; to gain political capital for me personally as editor of this DEVISE 2 DAY. On the contrary – as you can read in the archive. My political position was and still is the same: the Russian aggression must be condemned; Ukraine must be helped morally, formally, legally and monetarily; recognizing their territorial integrity and national sovereignty and assisting their refugees; and tries to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin and/or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the table. To get a common peace organized in writing. And to do bilateral trade with each other again. Fortunately, in addition to the great wave of solidarity with Ukraine and the acceptance of refugees coming from there, Europe has so far voted unanimously for a whole bundle ofdifferent economic sanctions against Russia. Likewise, Ukraine was given the prospect of EU membership. In this regard, if you will, we are on the right track. However, the issues of energy sanctions and arms deliveries have far more serious consequences, since they reveal a more than fundamental dissent between individual European states. And thus not only make the bilateral relationship with each other more difficult, but also burden it. Even make it seem impossible. As a compromise was emerging in relation to the energy sanctions, but there is not only a great deal of excitement on the issue of arms deliveries, but also an outspoken dispute. Admittedly, a more than sobering result after six months, when wishful thinking meets reality.

Failed basic assumptions of the previous Russia policy, like a house of cards imploding together.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán put it with the appropriate metaphor: “The car has four flat tires, all the tires need to be changed.” 
What was meant were the basic assumptions described above, which almost more and more european political leaders now seem to share, more or less .
But still have not (yet) led us to the hoped-for a new old normality. But on the contrary; we (taxpayers and consumers) in Europe are paying more and more in the form of higher green taxes and/or energy costs – in monetary terms. And Ukraine even more! And with human lives – without wanting to offset one (human life) against the other (monetarily material) against each other. And that’s why today’s DEVISE 2 DAY: „New Thinking,  New Speaking And/OR, Above All, New Acting, When It Comes To Ukraine/Russia Is Required! Isn`t it?“

High energy prices, inflation, the threat of an economic crisis and energy supply bottlenecks, especially in Germany that will soon – according to green hopes (and the legal situation) – be free of nuclear energy are the direct consequences of the failed sanctions policy. And while Europe is in danger of losing all cohesion due to the war, three major powers are gaining more and more influence: the United States of America, China and Russia. And that’s only because, inretrospect, we in Europe, especially here in my home country Germany, unfortunately dug a socialist-green energy-political pit under the cloak of liberal democracy. From which we can no longer seem to grow, due to ever higher green taxes and also higher consumer prices. Where by the Ukraine can be counted among the losers of the war at least as much as the whole of Europe. Since she is less and less able to understand his sovereignty. Seen in this light, it is hardly surprising that not all global actors are interested in ending the war as quickly as possible.

I hope that by now you too, my D2D readers, have learned toperceive that more and more green and social democratic politicians have adopted Viktor Orban’s political principles and are now trying to sell them as their own values, as liberal democratic, even European, ones. And at the same time trying to eliminate him as a right-wing white christian nationalist. Just like the US Democrats did with it Donald J. Trump back then! When it worked in 2020 after failing in 2016! The world-renowned scottish historian Niall Ferguson recently pointed out that the sanctions are ineffective. Because Russia can continue to offer its energy sources on the world market, while the country’s political leadership, under Putin, knows how to remain unimpressed. So Ferguson could already sense war fatigue and a drop in support for Ukraine. “It cannot be ruled out that if Trump were re-elected, Putin would not have invaded Ukraine,” speculates the renowned Harvard professor. In the US media, for example, only the conservative freedomlovers podcasts share this view. And in the big TV stations, for example, sometimes Fox. Everyone else seems to be full of excitement when reporting on the war in Ukraine, or rather always mouth-watering. That´s why I came also to the conclusion at the beginning of the war that none of this would have happened under Trump’s watch in the White House office. Such as the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan, directed by Sleepy Joe Biden. And Viktor Orbán, by the way, is of the same opinion. In Bad Tuschnad, Transylvania, he said recently: “If Donald Trump had been the American President and Angela Merkel the German Chancellor, this war would never have broken out.” 

That´s why, for better or worse, our German social democratic political veteran Klaus von Dohnanyi doubted that the USA had an interest in ending the war.
He urged us Europeans, especially us Germans, to influence the Ukraine in order to reach a peace agreement as quickly as possible. And he emphasized, as he did in his recently published book “National Interests”, the importance of an independent European policy that protects and respects individual national interests. Dohnanyi also doubted the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia and also drew historical parallels to the sanctions against Iran or Iraq, none of which would have lived up to expectations. The sanctions would only be for the domestic audience to satisfy their own voters by demonstrating the politicians’ ability to act. The good Social Democrat is right! Last but not least, as the political grandson of our last conservative federal chancellor Helmut Kohl I want to add that a political donkey shouldn’t be surprised that political elephants have a longer memory. Because back in Sep`18, during his speech to the UN General Assembly, former US President Trump rightly criticized our german energy policy razor-sharp in retrospect. “Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it doesn’t change course immediately. Here in the western hemisphere, we are obliged to protect our independence from the influence of foreign powers.” At the time, our freign minister Heiko Maas was horrified. And couldn’t or didn’t want to believe what he heard from an important ally in front of the assembled world community?! In addition Trump had settled our germans foreign energy policy accounts with the Iranian regime in the same speech. And Israel, led by Netanyahu, pledged politically outspoken support. So that our Chancellor Angela Merkel at the time, as well as our social democratic foreign minister Heiko Maas, felt politically more than challenged, as my home country Germany was practically mentioned in the same breath as the Iranian rogue regime in Theran. Because as early as 2018, the USA and some Eastern European countries had been criticizing the German-Russian pipeline project “Nord Stream 2” for a long time. However, the federal government stuck to this project. Until the approval process for Nord Stream 2 was stopped by our social democratic chancellor Olaf Scholz on February 22, 2022. Only one day before the war outbreak, while the preparations for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours – Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Long in the USDX (since 02/14/2002) around 96 points and/or also long MSFT (since 03/07/2022) around 285 USD are meanwhile our only two open long trading capabilities. In addition to our last long in the Dow Future at 31.140 (since 07/11/2022). After we realized our lost long FB trading capability (from 02/17/2022) end of june`22 with painfully 48 USD. Fortunately, MSFT stock had turned above our stop at 240 USD. Since the start of last week i formulated a short trading capability also. So that we have 4 financial market price actions on play, this week! USDX long; MSFT long; DOW Future; and/or UKOIL short.

This week I wanted to focus myself, to focus you, my readers, about the UKOIL pric action. But the Energy minister of Saudi Arabia, Prinz Abdulaziz bin Salman, want to se an higher oil price, if i don`t missunderstand his words. Like the most market guys, who are trading oil. So that our short UKOIL trading capability from last monday (08/15/2022) – entry at 95 USD with a target of 70 USD incl. a stop proce at 100 USD – failed on todays trading day. „OPEC has the commitment, flexibility and means, under the existing mechanisms of the Declaration of Cooperation, to deal with such challenges, including cutting production at any time and in various forms, as clearly and repeatedly in 2020 and 2021 has been proven“, he said. What drives oil bullish up and/or kicked out bears like us on tuesday.In the DOW Future we realized our 2.360 points profits on Monday at 33.500 points, as the price actions dropped furthermore. So we secured at least some profits. As i wrote last days. And that only because the US stock market has already risen very strongly on Wall Street. For many, much too fast and/or much too sharp. From a psychological point of view, I was secretly quite confident that the price market should hold at 33,500 points. But it doesn`t. However, we took 2.360 points profit from this 4XSetUp. And the DOW Future will be still able to trade, in the coming week, and or months, if we want. No market guy has ever died from taking profits, after realizing open trading positions! On the contrary. Better treat yourself. Maybe even buy your wife something. And/or something your children too! That’s why we trading, positioning or investing in the financial markets! Isn`t it?priceI am meanwhile assuming that the Fed will raise interest rates by up to 4% by the end of the year. At next three regular meetings of the FED, they will may be increase their key interest rate by 50 basis points. Which should push the 10-year up to over 4% and sustainably conservative the USDX above USD 110. And that too, if the US economy goes into recession in the second half of the year; because of 2 negative in the next two quarters 2022 ahead of us. But the CME FedWatchTool is pricing a 75 basis point rate hike meanwhile! The key question I ask myself about this future exceptation is: „How will WallStreet, the us stock market, react“ I dont know! So I’m keeping a low focus on the US stock market this week. And focus myself, on the UKOIL. Even the USD Index on sunday, and/or the DOW Future today i focused in our 4XSetUp. However, I hope to read, hope to analyze, hope to evaluate (no) new information next weekend, after the FED meeting in Jackson Hole. And then to be able to formulate a promising 4XSetUp for you again…