2022/08/23 (061) Column

Massacre Price Action Dropped US Stocks Down,
While USD Index Approaches 20-Year Peak.
UKOIL Volatile On Monday Trading Day


Former Deutsche Bank Co-CEO Indian Anshu Jain Dies

Bloomberg News reported last Monday, last week yeat, that former co-CEO of Deutsche Bank AG, Anshu Jain, passed away at the age of 59 due to cancer. Jain led the bank from 2012 to 2015 together with Jürgen Fitschen. He was diagnosed with duodenal cancer in January 2017, his family said. “We are deeply saddened that our beloved husband, son and father Anshu Jain passed away overnight,” the family said. Jain has been president of New York securities firm Cantor Fitzgerald since 2017.

I would like to take this opportunity to say a few personal words about him.
I don’t know Anshu Jain personally, but rather only thanks to numerous media and/or reports from numerous other financial market participants. But whenever I got something from him to read about the current financial market price development and/or the economy, I always read, analyzed and evaluated his words with relish. Especially when I took care of my mother while he was running Deutsche Bank and I was allowed to work as a volunteer at some much smaller CFD online brokers, thanks home office. Because his intelligence paired with an unfeigned modesty, an that as the first foreigner to be allowed to run Germany’s largest private listed bank, impressed me very much back then. I wanted to be like him back than, while I mainly cared for my mother and took on numerous part-time jobs, after her husband, even my father, also left us in May 2008, also due to a short-term cancer. Because even as a child and teenager I noticed, especially in sports, that there was no greater motivation for me than to imitate a like-minded role model in certain moves. In order to be able to create my own moves based on his moves. And in the case of Anshu Jain, it was his intelligence and modesty that I was never, even remotely, jealous of. But I kept catching myself trying to put myself in his thought processes. With hope, that one day to be able to operate in the markets also intelligently and/or modestly.

Born in Jaipur, India, the son of a civil servant, Jain rose to the top ranks on Wall Street and lead the Frankfurt bank into a global trading house. He raised generations of traders as he rose through Deutsche Bank. Many of the bankers he mentored now work for Wall Street’s largest banks and technology companies. “Anshu’s intelligence intimidated me,” said Boaz Weinstein, founder of Saba Capital Management, who worked closely with Jain at Deutsche Bank. “He was way ahead of everyone else I met in the industry. Incredible curiosity and a lightning quick mind. He was an outstanding figure in my life.” Jain resigned from his position early in June 2015 after years of missing his target at Deutsche Bank. After Fitschen’s departure, John Cryan ran the bank alone. “Those who have worked with Anshu have experienced a passionate leader of intellectual brilliance,” said Christian Sewing, Deutsche Bank’s chief executive officer, in a statement. “He deeply impressed many of us with his energy and loyalty to our bank.” In his private life, Jain has spent a lot of time caring for wildlife and supporting animal welfare groups around the world. He loved to play and/or watch cricket and golf and was a fan of Bollywood films. He was married with his wife Geetika, whom he met when he was 17, and they have two children together.

Karma has no expiration date. That’s why, if you give something good to the world, then in time your karma will be good and you will receive good things. That`s what i believe in it also! In this sense, only the best to his fellow human beings who are close to him and still remain among us #InNominePatrisEtFiliEtSpiritusSancti

Massacre Price Action Dropped US Stocks Down,

The main US stock indices fell sharply on Monday, extending the decline from the previous week with losses in all sectors, as investors braced for a prolonged period of rate hikes following hawkish remarks from FOMC members last week. Money markets expect the Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate by another5bps in September, with attention turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. The Dow closed 640 points lower to notch its worst session since June, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 2.1% and 2.6%, respectively. Tech giants tracked the downturn in Treasury notes and the surge of the VIX index with Netflix dropping over 6% while Nvidia and Amazon trailed between 3.5%-4.5%. Meanwhile, Ford shares fell over 5% after the company announced it will lay off 3,000 workers to fund its shift to electric vehicles.

USD Index Approaches 20-Year Peak

The dollar index broke above the 109 mark, closing in on its highest level since September 2002, as investors have increased bets that the Fed will move on with its aggressive tightening plan to tame sky-high inflation. Louis Fed President James Bullard was among the most hawkish policymakers last week, echoing the Fed’s intention to tighter monetary policy and leaning towards favoring another 75 bps hike in September. The most pronounced buying activity was against the Euro and the Pound, as soaring natural gas prices increased Europe’s risk of recession.

Oil Price Action Volatile On Monday Trading Day

Oil futures crawled back to the $97 per barrel mark on Monday as investors assessed the outlook of oil supply amid heightened uncertainty. Saudi energy minister bin Salman said on Monday that OPEC+ countries could cut production as a reaction to the recent downturn in energy markets. The comments partially offset the effect that expectations of higher supply had on prices, after US President Biden spoke with multiple Western leaders on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, which could boost Iranian oil exports by about 2.5 million bpd. Oil and other commodities have been declining since June over escalating fears of a global economic slowdown, as major central banks stem demand with aggressive rate hikes to tame surging inflation.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours – Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Long in the USDX (since 02/14/2002) around 96 points and/or also long MSFT (since 03/07/2022) around 285 USD are meanwhile our only two open long trading capabilities. In addition to our last long in the Dow Future at 31.140 (since 07/11/2022). After we realized our lost long FB trading capability (from 02/17/2022) end of june`22 with painfully 48 USD. Fortunately, MSFT stock had turned above our stop at 240USD. Since the start of last week i formulated a short trading capability also. So that we have 4 financial market price actions on play, this week! USDX long; MSFT long; DOW Future; and/or UKOIL short.

This week I will again put my main focus on the UKOIL price action. And not just due to the fact that oil is trading below 100$ again. And for me, admittedly also due to the weaker than expected economic figures from China last week, it is primarily due to war fatigue in relation to the war in eastern Ukraine. So I think the panic up, the war surcharge, is if you will, out of the UKOIL, under 100 USD! Even if no new agreement is negotiated with Iran in Vienna. I don’t think that the market, even the majority of market participants, will price in such high oil prices again for the upcoming winter. If I am not mistaken, the market already did that until the summer of 2022, which is just about to end. And that`s why is the UKOIL short trading capability still in every 4XSetUp technical analysis this week.In the DOW Future we realized our 2.360 points profits on Monday at 33.500 points, as the price actions dropped furthermore. So we secured at least some profits. As i wrote last days. And that only because the US stock market has already risen very strongly on Wall Street. For many, much too fast and/or much too sharp. From a psychological point of view, I was secretly quite confident that the price market should hold at 33,500 points. But it doesn`t. However, we took 2.360 points profit from this 4XSetUp. And the DOW Future will be still able to trade, in the coming week, and or months, if we want. No market guy has ever died from taking profits, after realizing open trading positions! On the contrary. Better treat yourself. Maybe even buy your wife something. And/or something your children too! That’s why we trading, positioning or investing in the financial markets! Isn`t it?I am meanwhile assuming that the Fed will raise interest rates by up to 4% by the end of the year. At next three regular meetings of the FED, they will may be increase their key interest rate by 50 basis points. Which should push the 10-year up to over 4% and sustainably conservative the USDX above USD 110. And that too, if the US economy goes into recession in the second half of the year; because of 2 negative in the next two quarters 2022 ahead of us. But the CME FedWatchTool is pricing a 75 basis point rate hike meanwhile! The key question I ask myself about this future exceptation is: „How will WallStreet, the us stock market, react“ I dont know! So I’m keeping a low focus on the US stock market this week. And focus myself, on the UKOIL. Even the USD Index on sunday, and/or the DOW Future today i focused in our 4XSetUp. However, I hope to read, hope to analyze, hope to evaluate (no) new information next weekend, after the FED meeting in Jackson Hole. And then to be able to formulate a promising 4XSetUp for you again…