2022/07/19 (052) Column

Stock Markets With A Lot Of Fresh
And/Or Also Very High Jump Up Today!
Has The Pessimism Of The Reached Its Peak?


Biden’s Policies Not Only Make His Voters Monetary Materiel Poorer,
It Seems Like, That It Makes Him Much More Psychological And/Or Physical Ill

As an outsider, I don’t want to communicate about the health of the US President.
Because I accompanied my mother for the last 11 years of her life. And at the same time witnessed up close, every day, how old age was spreading. And or actually unusual cognitive weaknesses set in at last. For example, CNN (usually a Biden friendly broadcaster) addressed his health surprisingly negatively.

DAVID AXELROD, CNN: „A third of them, the largest number said age, that he was too old. That is a problem that’s not going to get better. He’s not going to get younger.“

MIA MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN: „He’s not going to get any younger. I think there are a lot of people who have looked at him over these last years and see he isn’t what he used to be 10 years ago.“  

MARK MCKINNON, CNN: „He knows he’s 80 years old, 79, 80 years old. He knows he’s an old, White guy in a party that’s demographically changing and diverse, and the future is not going to be an old, White guy when.“ 

VAN JONES: JONES: „He does badly, when he stumbles, you get nervous and you wonder, is it just a stutter? Is he tired or something else?  … Listen, if anybody says the Democrats aren’t beginning to have these questions behind closed doors, that’s not true. People are.“  

Nevertheless, I think that the us media (un)consciously (un)intentionally focus too much on his state of health (un)intentionally, so as not to have to complain about his outspoken incompetent policies. About the fact that he did almost everything Donald j. Trump previously realized politically – turned 180 degrees into the opposite. And that the current situation in the USA, in our so-called West, is therefore the consequence of his policies. the policies of his ‘disastrous’ protestant social democratic liberal green US Democrats. The ones that the US taxpayers, who are all US consumers, will evaluate in the fall, at the mid-term election, one way or another, with their vote.

Has The Pessimism Of The Financial Market Participants Reached Its Peak?

Bank of America’s monthly survey of professional investors shows high levels of anxiety.
From a contrarian perspective, this is a positive information. As bad as the fundamental news situation looks, Bank of America believes that investor sentiment is too negative. Deutsche Bank notes also that positioning in futures on the S&P 500 is meanwhile the shortest it has ever been. What also helps today is the slightly falling US dollar. Already last week, in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps, I also tried to describe in my own words the already perceived phenomenon, yet. That`s why i am not wondering today, that the latest Fund Manager Survey, published today on Tuesday, was carried out between July 8 and July 15. It included responses from hundreds of investors who collectively manage hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of assets. Around 80% of those surveyed said they were expecting the economy to weaken within the next year, marking the lowest growth expectations since the survey began in 1995.

Stock Markets With A Lot Of Fresh And Also Very High Jump Up Today

The US stock exchanges found their way back to success on Tuesday. At the start of the week yesterday, risk appetite had waned on US WallStreet, but today it returned with absolute vigor. This also manifested itself in parallel with the renewed strength of the euro and the weak US dollar on the other side. So that courageous traders and investors, also because of rumors about a restart of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Europe, were again willing to go long again at the current prices on US WallStreet.The leading us share market index, in new york, the Dow Jones Industrial, steadily increased its gains over the course of the day. He crossed the finish line today with a proud and fabulous 2.43 percent higher at 31,827.05 points and thus as good as the daily high. The market-wide S&P 500 increased by 2.76 percent to 3936.69 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 even rose by 3.13 percent to 12,249.42 points – and thus returned vigorously above the 12,000 mark. We had already successfully closed our short trading capability weeks ago. Rather weak company figures only inhibited the willingness to buy individual stocks such as IBM, but they did not slow down the market as a whole. According to US WallStreet, much of the negative was priced in lately and now bolder investors would be looking for bargains, as I tried to put in my own words in last week’s Technical Analysis 4XSetUps. US Wall Street became riskier today mainly because speculation about a reactivation of the gas pipeline eased concerns about a European energy crisis in the euro area. The euro has therefore become somewhat more expensive. Conversely, the USD became slightly cheaper. And perhaps that’s why many on US WallStreet saw a buying opportunity today. But this has to be defended in the coming days.

Bitcoin Tops 23,000 USD

Bitcoin topped 23,000 USD for the first time in more than a month as dip buyers emerged to blunt a massive selloff triggered by prospects of an aggressive tightening from major central banks and exacerbated by the turmoil surrounding crypto lender Celsius and the collapse of TerraUSD. On top of that, an overall risk appetite fueled by upbeat US earnings results lent further optimism to bulls. Ethereum also saw its value rise sharply, extending a rally that began last week to above $1,500 after Ethereum blockchain developers set a date for the long-awaited software update. Other altcoins, including Cardano, Ripple, and Solana, were up between 3% and 9%.

Crude Brent Futures Rises Above 107 USD

Brent crude futures regained ground above the $107-per-barrel level amid a weaker dollar and persistent supplyconcerns. In the near term, supply gaps are unlikely to be filled by extra output from OPEC+ despite efforts from the United States to bring more oil to markets to help tame energy costs. Saudi Arabia insisted after a recent meeting with the US that policy decisions would be based on market dynamics and according to the OPEC+ meeting in August. Keeping a lid on prices were growing recession concerns, driven by aggressive rate hikes worldwide, Covid-19 lockdowns in China, and western proposals for a price cap on Russian oil.

Russian Stocks Extend Approach February-Low

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.2% lower at 2,070 on Tuesday, approaching the February-low touched last week amid further pessimism regarding Russia’s economic outlook, as energy cuts to Europe dent revenues and add to the country’s isolation from Western economies. Gazprom shares closed higher despite more clients being notified of their force majeure, even though it cited retroactive supplies and gave no justification for the gas cuts. The move ramps up concerns that natural gas flows will remain low, adding to worries of low energy revenues after Gazprom cancelled dividend payments for record setting earnings that plunged the stock by 40%. Further losses were spread to all sectors, with heavyweights like Lukoil, Sberbank, and Severstal declining. Meanwhile, markets expect the CBR to cut its key interest rate this week to below levels before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the deflationary trend in consumer prices persist and the ruble remains strong.

Turkish Lira At 7-Month Low

The Turkish lira weakened to near 17.6 per USD, the lowest since the record of 18.4 hit December, pressured by soaring prices and large negative interest rates as investors await Thursday’s monetary policy decision. Despite no signs of slowing inflation, real interest rates remain largely negative as the TCMB held its benchmark rate constant since President Erdogan backed 500bps in rate cuts from September to December, sparking a currency crisis. Consequently, inflation in Turkey hit a 24-year high of 78 percent in June amid soaring energy imports. Meanwhile, the latest current account reading pointed to a deficit of $6.5 billion, contradicting Erdogan’s pledge that Turkey would consolidate a strong current account surplus position. Stabilization measures by the central bank and efforts to balance reserve levels, including a ban on new currency loans for foreign currency-heavy institutions, have failed to support the lira.