2022/07/18 (051) Column

Biden’s Trip To Saudi Arabia
Couldn’t Have Been More Embarrassing
US WallStreet Clearly In The Red This Trading Day,
After A Good Early Start Into On This Monday Today…


Biden’s Trip To Saudi Arabia Couldn’t Have Been More Embarrassing

The foreign policy of the US Democrats is finished! So that we, for the USA, for all of us, only hope that OPEC will increase oil production so that prices fall. And or else the speculators will disappear from the market. Just like us below 100 USD. Because prices above that, as Putin, I perceived inflation. Since the price of oil had already risen, regardless of the conflict in eastern Ukraine or the attack by Russia. And that has been around USD 41 since Biden took office. Therefore, the rise in oil prices can be traced back to energy policy. Which, in retrospect, investors had already anticipated at the time.

We are at the end of a typical US Presidential Monday. While most of you, my readers, have been working hard, the US President has taken more time off. He was tired, according to journalists close to him. He had made a trip to Saudi Arabia – and all without public events. Which is why Joe now needs the rest he got after a pretty disastrous foreign policy disappointment. Because, as feared before the trip, he has not received any confirmation from Saudi Arabia. He had begged OPEC asking the Saudis to produce more oil, which in and of itself is stupid because the US had been producing more energy (more gas, oil, coal) before he took office, thanks to Donald’s policies Trump, who was able to completely cover the needs of US consumers and taxpayers. So that when the US President finally returned home to the White House, he was no longer interested in answering journalists’ questions after his embarrassing trip abroad. And it is more than embarrassing, especially for the US President, to have to rely on the goodwill of Saudi Arabia and the other (mostly) Muslim oil-producing states. Which, sooner or later, you will certainly, unspokenly, respond to. Since you too are (religious) men of honour. But of course, of course, time and space, as far as the price of oil is concerned, according to their own political influences, still unspoken, according to their own taste. And that’s just as well! It was just not good that Sleepy Joe’s first inauguration back then was to turn around the energy economy in the USA, which, thanks to Donald Trump’s policies, was producing more than the USA was consuming! That’s why we’re trading prices today, in the USA, and or also in the commodity oil futures market, that we’re trading…

This Week ECB, Fed And/Or Bank Of England In Focus – And That With Different Views

All central banks dump inflation on us consumers as a consumption tax, if you will, to dampen demand. And that, after the respective dovish false reactions – expansive fiscal policy and/or monetary policy – since the year 2008. So that I would not be surprised if we have persistently high inflation, not only until the end of 2022, but possibly even the whole remaining decade, could still experience. Because if the worst possible hawkish conservative freedom-loving politicians not only come back to power, but rather also implement appropriate restrictive fiscal policy and monetary policy, why should prices come down again? And so the topic of expectations is usually discussed. Whether in terms of inflation, producer prices, economic growth, unemployment, even corporate profits, and or even sales, in the case of listed companies, on Wall Street? Around us market participants, who are all of us. At least in relation to taxes & consumption (as taxpayers & consumers) – and that independently of financial market prices (as financial market participants). So that we (un)participated at least still have some hope for a better future.

In recent months, the major central banks have taken center stage in the financial markets. The stance switched from very dovish easy monetary policy on the impact of the coronavirus to more hawkish tightening on rising inflation concerns. However, it remains to be seen how inflation will develop in the coming months. That said, I have found no sign so far in any economic indicator, let alone a handful combined, that the tailing–off inflation, on us consumers, in our so-called West, imposed by higher food and energy prices, is affecting purchasing behavior, affected by us individual taxpayers and consumers. On the contrary. Most people, in our so-called West, are finally consuming and living normally again after the Corona Virus Outbrack, as if the crisis had never happened. Or let me put it better: as if, looking back, there were no lasting mental and/or physical impairments left behind. And that’s just as well. So the sharp rise in US mortgage rates is also likely to slow further increases in house prices, sooner or later, more or less. Because ultimately, that’s what the FED wants to achieve. Namely, to better match aggregate demand with available supply. And that’s why I’m assuming that the FED will raise your interest rates by 75 basis points at each regular meeting by the end of the year. In order to take into account the risk of a recession (negative growth within 2 quarters – compared to the previous year), which is still high.

With both dovish and hawkish monetary policy being a blunt instrument with various variable lags, the risk of a Fed-induced recession remains quite high and may even have increased with the Fed’s recent 75 basis point rate hike. But nowhere near as high as the risk of a recession due to inflation, which was mainly triggered by the expansive fiscal policies of our governments in our so-called West in response to the Corona virus outbreak. And therein lies the rub – for all central banks. Fighting inflation with an interest rate without sending the economy into a recession and thus even higher unemployment. Which is why all three central banks are trying to operate at different speeds and base points, in order to still organize and initiate the best of all worlds from the current difficult situation.

US WallStreet Clearly In The Red
After A Good Start Into Week On This Monday

At the start of the week, US WallStreet lost the desire to buy that had flared up for a short time at this price level. After the significant recovery in the past calendar week, the New York share indices started with further gains, but the majority of financial market participants ensured that prices fell again during the course of the day. Well-received figures from the investment bank Goldman Sachs did not help the Dow Jones Index today. And so the Dow Jones Industrial ended up down 0.69 percent. After a daily high of almost 31,645 points, this means the highest level since the end of June 2020 that the New York leading index is almost 600 points lower at 31,072.61 points above the finish line, which is most observers. And regardless of that, we also remain relatively optimistic, as can be read in the 4XSetUps technical analysis. Incidentally, the market-wide S&P 500 lost 0.84 percent today to 3830.85 points, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 even fell back by 0.89 percent to 11,877.50 points.

US WallStreet has lost risk appetite today, unrelated to any tangible better news. The Bulls probably just lost heart today. Which is why, in the Dow Jones Index, I would still prefer the long side. As there may be repeat purchases as many bears could possibly be caught on the wrong foot. Nevertheless, the overall picture of the US economy, US fiscal policy and US monetary policy does not remain positive for US WallStreet. After all, the economic risks of a recession are still great. And the high US inflation must also be fought further. Uncertainty about Russian gas deliveries to Europe is also a general burden. The one that affects the USA less in terms of economic policy and more psychologically and emotionally – in contrast to us Europeans. Especially us here in my home country Germany.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours – Where I Was Wrong, Whre I Was Right

Long USDX (since 02/14/2002) around 96 points and/or also long MSFT (since 03/07/2022) around 285 USD are meanwhile our only two open long trading capabilities. In addition to our new long YM1! in the E-mini Dow Future last week. After we realized our lost long FB trading capability (from 02/17/2022) end of june`22 with painfully 48 USD.


I still have another long position of over USD 100 in the back of my mind. But I think that the surcharge 
due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has already been priced out underneath. And therefore other factors influence the price action development of oil to rise/fall.

Anyway. This summer 2022 we are mainly concentrating on our long YM1! in the E-mini Dow Future. Because in the bull/bear price war around the psychologically important mark of 30,000 points, a more than evil, volatile battlefield is likely to manifest itself, where daily fluctuations of several hundred points should not surprise you, my dear readers.