2022/07/14 (050) Column

As Long As Fiscal Policy And/Or Monetary Policy
Does Not Change, Prices Will Not Fall
Dow Reduces Minus – But Worries Remain
Brent Crude Oil Pares Losses


As Long As Fiscal Policy And/Or Monetary Policy Does Not Change, Prices Will Not Fall

Producer prices in the US rose more than expected. This could also affect consumer prices – and the Fed’s next interest rate decision. But I don’t want to denounce the FED, like all other central banks, with regard to this! On the contrary – I defend you! And argue that consumer prices have risen only in those countries, our so-called West, where governments simply have not implemented restrictive fiscal policies. Considered to be far too much in debt – and thus brought far too much cheap money among us humans, so that it was only a matter of time before the prices for products, as well as for manufacturing and manufacturing, indeed services, rise. Surprisingly, producer prices in the US continued to rise today, pointing to persistently high US inflation. In June, producer prices rose by 11.3 percent compared to the same month last year, as the Ministry of Labor announced on Thursday. The increase was only just below the record value of March – at that time 11.6 percent was achieved. The core problem of the current inflation is not Russian President Putin, let alone Ukrainian President Zelensky. Rather, it is the fiscal policy and/or monetary policy of your (emotionally) dependent trading partners around the world. And who is surprised that in our so-called West, at least in most of the media, hardly any politician is (yet) able to take on any real responsibility. And hiding himself and his voters behind protestant  social democratic liberal green promises for the future. And that’s just so that we, in our so-called West, don’t have to admit that we (by that I mean all taxpayers and/or consumers as well) that our political class, since the fall of Lehman Brothers, with its irresponsible fiscal policy since monetary policy, of cheap money, have also failed.

Tick-tock. Tick-tock. Tick-tock. Tick-tock. Tick-tock.
Shut down the oil production! And now their wondering why, in the formal, legally, state-legitimized scarcity economy, the energy prices for consumers and taxpayers (which we all are) are rising?

Tick-tock. Tick-tock. Tick-tock. Tick-tock. Tick-tock.
And or also insult Trump and/or our #MAGA Movement (us conservative freedom lovers all around the world) as a racist – and that although never in the history of the USA more non-white, inclusive more women, learned to understand themselves politically as Federal Republicans.

Tick-tock. Tick-tock. Tick-tock. Tick-tock. Tick-tock.
And only because this ‘disastrous’ protestant  social democratic liberal green Biden regime wanted to do the opposite politically, what Trump and/or the GOP realized in their 4 years before? Yes, that is the politically revanchistic evil spirit of Cain – who moved everything so that his brother had a difficult (monetarily material less) hard life!

And that`s why I, as a baptized Roman Catholic Franciscan Christian, and even more so an outspoken pro-Jew, pro-capitalist, pro-Israel, supporter I can only hope that US voters have not forgotten what life was like before Sleepy Joe took office. And also realize that the current state of fiscal policy in the USA and/or the corresponding state of the US economy was and is not a destiny!? Rather, it was and is the consequence of political (not) decisions by the US Democrats, under the watch of Sleepy Joe Biden?!

And that’s why November 2022, at least for us conservative freedom-loving people, spread around the globe, is more than groundbreaking. Because without a politically conservative, freedom-loving majority in every capital, prices will not change either! Why? Think about it – and then please until the end…

Dow Reduces Minus – But Worries Remain

At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial fell by 0.46 percent to 30,630.17 points. At the beginning he had dropped to 30 143.93 points. The market-wide S&P 500 finally lost 0.30 percent to 3790.38 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 even went up 0.34 percent to 11,768.40 points.

The Jones was able to contain its high initial losses during the course of the day on Thursday and only ended trading with a slight minus. The NASDAQ even managed a small shy positive daily close. And that, if I’m not mistaken, because there was no fear of even more sharply rising interest rates with negative effects on economic development. Because, as I tried to make clear in my daily technical analysis, the stock market bulls seem to have already capitulated at the end of June.

At least psychologically, if my 5 senses don’t fool me.
So that the share attractiveness is still present. Admittedly at prices that are still historically more expensive. And or no favorable economic development. Let alone fiscal policy. So for many highly speculative countercyclical bulls, like me, at least a rational FED appears as a glimmer of hope that knows not to raise rates too steeply, not too quickly. Because that would hit the US economy even harder than the Corona lockdowns in 2020. And or the financial crisis of 2008. Of course, the FED could have raised interest rates by 200 points each time this year! Not an issue – that’s what I argued in my first issues. But for better or for worse, the majority is missing on the board – for whatever fiscal, monetary or economic reasons. So we will have to brace ourselves for a relatively steep but prolonged rate hike cycle. At least until the end of 2022, the path is clear with 75 basis points each.

And that’s why I’m also bullish on the DOW JONES. Admittedly highly speculative anti-cyclical. But at least conservatively liberal above 30,000 points. Because should the majority of Wall Street lose their nerve. US economic data not improving. And unrest among US consumers and US taxpayers continues to mount. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow Jones (until the end of 2023) falls below 20,000 points again. But today, here and now – at least in this summer of 2022 – I really don’t expect that to happen.

Brent Crude Oil Pares Losses

Brent crude futures pared its early decline to hover above the flatline at $100 per barrel on Thursday, rebounding from February lows touched earlier in the session as investors continued to assess tight supplies against the backdrop of low demand and a surging dollar. Prolonged warnings that OPEC countries are near maximum capacity continued to be a point of concern regarding the long-term supply of energy. Still, oil prices remain pressured by fears of an incoming economic slowdown.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours -Where I Was Wrong, Whre I Was Right

This week i will focus on the development of the Dow Jones Future. I will also mainly address the E-mini Future, because I think that the next 14 days, in July 22, should be more than groundbreaking for August 22 – even for the further development up to September 22. Before we should find ourselves in the hot election campaign for the us mid term at the latest by the back to school season.

In summer, political fires, due to mid-term elections, at the end of autumn.
The highest inflation in 40 years. Not only, but especially in the USA. The worst prospects for the us economy future in the USA since the financial crisis of 2008. And a destructive green monetary-material poverty policy that takes the money out of their voters’ pockets. This self-inflicted legislative legitimized monetary material disaster for us voters, also in Europe, especially here in my homeland Germany also, should (un)consciously (un)intentionally move not only the price action but rather also cost votes! How many? We will experience that. And that`s why I will no longer formulate any new trading capability, in the near future…Realized losts in APPL, wins in TSLA, and no new shorts in the NDX100.
In Middle May our open long trading capability (from 02/13/2022) in APPL (entry 169 USD, stop 150 USD & target 230 USD) was stopped out. Which is one of the reasons why I also dissolved our TSLA short trading capability (from 02/21/2022 with an entry by 855 USD, stop by 1200 & target by 430 USD). But in this 4XsetUp at least with a realized gain of 121 USD (middle may closed by 734 USD). As well in our NDX short trading capability, we realized our gains in the NDX100 too (from 02/16/2022 with an entry by 14.500 & target by 12.000). So overall, when we compare all of our 4XSetUps, the bottom line is that we still have a profit to show for it. So that all in all, put all words together and/or added all numbers up, we can at least show a surplus.And that without paying attention to our first successfully completed UKOIL long trading capability (from 02/15/2022). When UKOIL traded faster as originally expected at USD 130 (03/06/2022) due the outbreak of the war in eastern Ukraine. And we made more as 20 USD, even more as 20%, in a few days. And that without leverage of any derivative. However inclusive our last lost long trading capability in UKOIL (from 03/09/2022) of 12 USD (entry by 112 USD with a stopp by 100 USD) last week, we still did well looking back in the UKOIL. As UKOIL falls back first time under 100 USD since the war trouble in eastern ukraine.

So let`s get straight to the point:
Long USDX (since 02/14/2002) at 96 points and/or long MSFT (since 03/07/2022) at 285 USD are meanwhile our only two open long trading capabilities. In addition to our new long YM1! in the E-mini Dow Future in this week. After we realized our lost long FB trading capability (from 02/17/2022) end of june`22 with painfully 48 USD.