2023/05/11 (228.091) Technical Analysis

Over And Out With Our Long 4XSetUp In DOW Future Position
– I`m Afraid That „Sell In May And Go Away!“ Confirmed This Year 2023

US Stocks Fall on Thursday
After US Producer Prices Rise Less Than Expected And/Or US Unemployment Claims Rise To 18-Month High

The Dow Jones was down almost 300 points on Thursday, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Nasdaq traded flat, as investors digest recent economic data and earnings reports. Producer and consumer prices eased more than expected in April while weekly claims unexpectedly rose to the highest since October 2021 raising the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may soon pause its policy tightening. On the corporate front, Disney lost more than 8% after the company reported a loss in subscribers in the first quarter. Also, PacWest dropped almost 29% after the bank reported deposit outflows in the first week of May. On the positive side, Alphabet surged 2.6% after the company announced new AI tools. The ongoing debt ceiling impasse is also being closely monitored by investors following recent talks between President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans, which showed little progress.

Producer prices for final demand in the US increased 0.2% month-over-month in April of 2023, following a downwardly revised 0.4% drop in March and compared to market forecasts of a 0.3% rise. 80% of the general increase is due to a 0.3% rise in services cost, the biggest since November, as prices for portfolio management surged 4.1%. Costs also moved higher for food and alcohol wholesaling, outpatient care, loan services, hospital inpatient care, and guestroom rental. At the same time, goods prices were up 0.2%, mainly due to an 8.4% surge in gasoline. Prices were also higher for fresh and dry vegetables, carbon steel scrap, plastic resins and materials, aircraft and aircraft equipment, and fluid power equipment. Meanwhile, annual producer inflation eased for a 10th straight month to 2.3%, the lowest since January 2021 and the core rate fell to 3.2%.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 22 thousand to 264 thousand on the week ending May 6th, the most since October 2021, and well above market expectations of 245 thousand. The result emphasized a batch of recent data that points to the softening of the US labor market, caving to a prolonged series of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, rose by 6,000 to 245,250. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims rose by 13,969 to 234,084, with notable increases in Massachusetts (+6,375), California (+2,924), and Missouri (+2,446).Last Week I Wrote For You, Yes Escpecially Yo, My Basic Technical Scenario
– The Short-Term Bullish Trend Vs. The Nedium-Term Bearish Trend To Break The GAP
– So That You Can Trade The DOW JONES Future Highly Professionally Too, If You Want It,
But This Week I Would Like To Go Better, Because I Noticed A New Technical Constellation Today

Once again; here my detail overview reminder. The last bullish short-term GAP from August 2022 must be defended by us bulls, in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. Because a price action below would manifests a mod-term failed breakout-formation in retroperspect. At this point, the us inflation was at its peak. Which of course we didn’t know at the time. And why the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, after the high of the breakout at 34281.36 points on 08th August 2023, fall back until on October 13th 2022, and traded new lows at 28660.94 points.

In November 2022, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index was then traded above the GAPS again for the first time.
33130.63 (daily low of 08/10/2022) and/or 32877.53 (daily high of 08/09/2022) – more precisely on 10/11/2022. And while this GAP was defended in December 2022, January 2023 and/or February 2023, investors and/or traders traded the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index below it again for the first time in March 2023. So, from a technical analysis point of view, a short-term technical reversal pattern formed. And that´s why I formulated even this long Technical Analysis 4XSetUp for the DOW JONES Future, by the way I even formulated it. Because the fight of the bulls and/or bears for the price action between 33130.63 points & 32877.53 is something like a front line for me. Because the short-term bullish trend reversal formation, below the GAPS, from March 2023 is opposed by a medium-term bearish trend reversal formation, just since November 2022. This is the technical picture that I currently perceive in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. And that’s why I pay attention to the lower price action brands around 32948.93 points, 32812.33 points, 32573.43 points and or also 32500.73 points. Which are below the GAPS. In retrospect, however, it was something like low prices, what you can see in the daily charts, with the help of the pivot points. These brands must be defended. At which level we more or less entered our long 4XSetUp in the DOW JONES Future.

And now I would like to bring the trading date of Tuesday, December 13, 2022 into play today.
Because the US consumer prices were also published on this trading day. And with 7.1% they were not only better than in the previous month with 7.3% but also better than expected with 7.3%. Which just proves to me that US WallStreet, particularly the DOW Jones Industrial Average Index, trades primarily, not the US inflation map. Because the spread between US inflation and/or the US key interest rate is now lower than it has been since the outbreak of US inflation; since the outbreak of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, since Joe Biden’s inauguration in the White House. And this despite the fact that volatility is one of the highest on average on the day US inflation is published. Okay, most colleagues argue that the US yield curve is going crazy; which I do not fundamentally disagree with – but currently (today) cannot prove any signs of an imminent US recession. Because the last US economic growth accelerated to 1.6 percent year-on-year during the first quarter of 2023, up from 0.9 percent in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. Which is more due to bad sentiment in the US; because the self-inflicted and politically desired green US inflation is biting into the wallet of every single US American. Like here in Europe, especially in Germany (because of the green inflation) also, so that we buy less and less for the same amount.

The US Inflation Numbers On Wednesday This Week Will Guide The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index This May More And/Or Less
– No, Not The Number Themselve, But Rather The Reaction Of All (Not) Involved Traders And/Or Investors In The DXY And/Or US10Y Also

Actual Forecast Previous Release Date Actual Forecast Previous
4.9% 5.0% 5.0% May 10, 2023 (Apr) 4.9% 5.0%

in comparison to YoY in comparison to exceptation

5.0% 5.2% 6.0% Apr 12, 2023 (Mar) 5.0% 5.2% 6.0%
6.0% 6.0% 6.4% Mar 14, 2023 (Feb) 6.0% 6.0% 6.4%
6.4% 6.2% 6.5% Feb 14, 2023 (Jan) 6.4% 6.2% 6.5%
6.5% 6.5% 7.1% Jan 12, 2023 (Dec) 6.5% 6.5% 7.1%
7.1% 7.3% 7.8% Dec 13, 2022 (Nov) 7.1% 7.3% 7.8%
7.7% 8.0% 8.2% Nov 10, 2022 (Oct) 7.7% 8.0% 8.2%
8.2% 8.1% 8.2% Oct 13, 2022 (Sep) 8.2% 8.1% 8.2%
8.3% 8.1% 8.5% Sep 13, 2022 (Aug) 8.3% 8.1% 8.5%
8.5% 8.7% 9.1% Aug 10, 2022 (Jul) 8.5% 8.7% 9.1%
9.1% 8.8% 8.6% Jul 13, 2022 (Jun) 9.1% 8.8% 8.6%
8.6% 8.3% 8.3% Jun 10, 2022 (May) 8.6% 8.3% 8.3%
8.3% 8.1% 8.5% May 11, 2022 (Apr) 8.3% 8.1% 8.5%
8.5% 8.4% 7.9% Apr 12, 2022 (Mar) 8.5% 8.4% 7.9%
7.9% 7.9% 7.5% Mar 10, 2022 (Feb) 7.9% 7.9% 7.5%
7.5% 7.3% 7.0% Feb 10, 2022 (Jan) 7.5% 7.3% 7.0%
7.0% 7.0% 6.8% Jan 12, 2022 (Dec) 7.0% 7.0% 6.8%

US Inflation Rate Continues To Fall
The annual inflation rate in the US unexpectedly edged lower to 4.9% in April 2023, the lowest since April 2021, from 5% in March and below forecasts of 5%. Food prices grew at a slower rate (7.7% vs 8.5% in March) and energy cost fell (-5.1% vs -6.4%), namely gasoline (-12.2%) and fuel oil (-20.2%). Also, shelter costwhich accounts for over 30% of the total CPI basket, slowed for the first time in two years (8.1% vs 8.2%). At the same time, prices for used cars and trucks declined once again (-6.6% vs -11.6%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.4%, much higher than 0.1% in March but matching market expectations. The largest upward contribution came from cost of shelter (0.4%), used cars and trucks (4.4%) and gasoline (3%). Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 5.5% on the year and 0.4% on the month, in line with market forecasts.

How To Trade The DOW JONES Future?
What To Do Next Days And/Or Weeks With Our Long 4XSetUp?

As I wrote at the start of this Technical Analysis 4XSetUps, all this week!
Last week the 2 major central banks and this week inflation data. After the quarterly report season, in relation to the 1st quarter of 2023, had its peak in the previous week. More influential new information regarding to the price action doesn’t get any better! And not only for the EURUSD pair, but also for both yield curves, and/or stock markets – on both sides of the Atlantic. And the heavyweight SP500, which is sort of the standardized benchmark for US stocks, if you will, doesn’t get past the 4200 mark. Because the handful of well-known tech giants of the last decade seem to be running out of breath – breathing is getting heavier & heavier. With such an high fundamental valuation; which more & more are simply no longer able to pay, with a guaranteed interest rate of over 4% (over a year)! Or? And that`s why i`m clsoing our long 4XSetUp DOW Future Trading Capability! And/Or our german DAX Future and/or indian SENSEX Index trading capabilities also. Because we made enough money with our 4XSetUps yet. Made in the first 4 months more as I excepted for the whole year. And with our money management, as discussed in detail in March, we also have an interest rate of 4% over 12 months! What must first be negotiated on Wall Street. And that`s why our new 4XsetUps in May 2023, today! And on Sunday again a new old technical analysis 4XSetUp about our new old long 4XSetUp in the DYX…