2023/05/02 (221.084) Technical Analysis

DOW Future

The Last Bullish GAP From August 2022 Must Be Defended By Us Bulls,
Because A Price Action Below Manifests A Failed Breakout Attempt In Retrospect

At this point, us inflation was at its peak. Which of course we didn’t know at the time. And why the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, after the high of the breakout at 34281.36 points on 08th August 2023, fall back until on October 13th 2022, and traded new lows at 28660.94 points.

In November 2022, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index was then traded above the GAPS again for the first time.
33130.63 (daily low of 08/10/2022) and/or 32877.53 (daily high of 08/09/2022) – more precisely on 10/11/2022. And while this GAP was defended in December 2022, January 2023 and/or February 2023, investors and/or traders traded the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index below it again for the first time in March 2023. So, from a technical analysis point of view, a short-term technical reversal pattern formed. And that´s why I formulated even this long Technical Analysis 4XSetUp for the DOW JONES Future, by the way I even formulated it. Because the fight of the bulls and/or bears for the price action between 33130.63 points & 32877.53 is something like a front line for me. Because the short-term bullish trend reversal formation, below the GAPS, from March 2023 is opposed by a medium-term bearish trend reversal formation, just since November 2022. This is the technical picture that I currently perceive in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. And that’s why I pay attention to the lower price action brands around 32948.93 points, 32812.33 points, 32573.43 points and or also 32500.73 points. Which are below the GAPS. In retrospect, however, it was something like low prices, what you can see in the daily charts, with the help of the pivot points. These brands must be defended. At which level we more or less entered our long 4XSetUp in the DOW JONES Future.

This Is The Medium-Term And/Or Short-Term Basic Technical Scenario, If I Am Not Mistaken
– Regardless Of This Technical Analysis, Let’s Get A Quick Detail Overview At Today’s Price Action On The WallStreet

The US stock exchanges fell on Tuesday. A day before the interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve, nervousness prevailed. In addition, the economic data from the world’s largest economy was weaker than expected and concerns about the situation of the US regional banks once again surfaced. The Dow Jones Industrial finally fell by 1.08 percent to 33,684.53 points. The market-wide S&P 500 lost 1.16 percent to 4119.58 points. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.89 percent to 13,113.66 points. Among the regional banks , Pacwest shares were hit the hardest this time . They fell by almost 28 percent, but not below the low of mid-March, when the regional banking crisis broke out. In March, the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and other smaller banks collapsed, causing severe upheaval on the stock markets at times. Western Alliance Bancorp. were down 15 percent on Tuesday, along with Comerica and Zions Bancorp. gave more than ten percent each. The day before, JPMorgan CEO James Dimon said the current banking crisis was nearing its end after his takeover of the First Republic. At the same time, however, he had admitted that another smaller bank could possibly fail. Now investors are wondering what that might be. In the Dow, Chevron shares brought up the rear with minus 4.3 percent. Not only did they give up gains after Friday’s strong quarterly earnings release, they fell back to where they were at the end of March. In the S&P 100, ExxonMobil, which also rose on Friday after a strong quarterly report, lost four percent. ConocoPhillips lost 3.8 percent. All of them suffered from the still significantly weakening oil prices, which market observers justified, among other things, with concerns about weaker economic development in China.

To Get A Better Feel For The US WallStreet And Not Just Via Our Long 4XSetUp In The DOW Future,
You Know That I Always Take Into Account The Price Action Of The US Dollar And/Or Also US 10Year Yield

Dollar Holds Up on Strong US Data
The dollar index held up around 102 on Tuesday after rising for three straight sessions, underpinned by better-than-projected US manufacturing data and firm expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US grew to 47.1 in April from 46.3 in March, exceeding forecasts of 46.8 as new orders improved and employment rebounded. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely anticipated to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday, though analysts remain split on whether the regulator would keep borrowing costs elevated for the remainder of the year or start cutting rates in the second half. Other major central banks, incl. the European Central Bank & Reserve Bank of Australia, will also decide on monetary policy this week.

US 10-Year Bond Yields Retreats Ahead Of Fed
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell back to under the 3.4% level, firmly below the one-month high of 3.6% touched on April 19th as underwhelming labor market data pared concerns of an overly-hawkish Federal Reserve ahead of the central bank’s rate decision tomorrow. The Fed is widely expected to raise its funds rate by 25bps to finalize its 500bps tightening path. Still, signs of resilient inflation amid softening in the labor market spurred conflicting expectations on the duration that the central bank will hold rates at a high level. Data from the JOLTS showed that job openings in the United States fell to a near two-year low in March. At the same time, PMI data showed that inflation picked up during April, underscoring the stubbornness of price growth to higher borrowing costs.

US Stocks Slide over Banking ConcernsUnited States Stock Market
The Dow finished 360 points lower on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively, led by a selloff in US regional lenders as concerns about financial stability grew after the second-largest bank failure in the country’s history. Among lenders, PacWest and Western Alliance plunged by 27.8% and 15.1%, respectively. JPMorgan, which had gained traction in the previous session following the takeover of First Republic Bank, lost 1%. Adding to the bearish sentiment, JOLTS job openings reached their lowest point in almost two years raising concerns about a potential slowdown in the US economy. Investors have also shown caution in opening new positions, given the looming outcome of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming two-day meeting. Still, there was some positive news in the market as Uber shares rose by 11.5% due to strong quarterly results driven by high demand for travel and food delivery services.

Whatever The Price Action In The US Was Today, There Were Also Some Fresh US Economic Data
That I Don’t Want To Withhold From You At This Point, So That We Can Get A More Detail Overview About The US Economy

US Factory Orders Rebound Less Than Expected
New orders for manufactured goods in the US increased by 0.9 percent compared to the previous month in March 2023, rebounding from two consecutive months of decline. However, the growth fell short of market expectations of 1.1 percent and followed a revised 1.1 percent drop in February. The biggest upward contribution came from a 9 percent surge in demand for transport equipment, led by both civilian (78.3 percent) and defense aircraft (9.6 percent). Additionally, orders rose for computers and electronic products (2.1 percent), electrical equipment, appliances, and components (0.8 percent), primary metals (0.2 percent), and fabricated metal products (0.1 percent). In contrast, demand decreased for machinery (-0.3 percent) and furniture and related products (-1.3 percent).

US Job Quits Fall in March
The number of job quits in the United States decreased by 129,000 from the previous month to 3.85 million in March 2023, the lowest level since May 2021 and below the record peak of roughly 4.5 million quits reached in November 2021. Accommodation and food services saw the most significant decline in the number of quits, with a decrease of 178,000. The quits rate, which measures the proportion of voluntary job leavers among total employment, fell to 2.5% from 2.6% in February, matching the lowest in two years.

US Job Openings Below Expectations
The number of job openings in the United States dropped by 384,000 to 9.6 million in March 2023, the lowest level since April 2021 and below the market’s expectation of 9.775 million, indicating that the labor market may be cooling off. Over the month, job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-144,000) but increased in educational services (+28,000). Meanwhile, the number of hires and total separations remained relatively stable at 6.1 million and 5.9 million, respectively.

Logistics Managers’ Index in US Hits New All-time LowUnited States Lmi Logistics Managers Index Current
The Logistics Manager’s Index in the US fell for a third consecutive month to hit another record low of 50.9 in April of 2023, compared to 51.1 in March. The decline was mainly driven by a dip in inventory levels (-4.7 to 50.9), suggesting that firms continue to get closer to properly balancing their supply of goods. The drop in inventories has led to a significant fall in warehousing utilization (-9.9 to 55.1) which in turn has dropped warehousing prices (-1.1 to 69.8) particularly for downstream firms. Meanwhile, transportation utilization moved back into expansion (+5 to 55) and transportation prices fell less (+5.7 to 36.8), possible due to the fact that inventories continue to dip in consumer goods and retail industries, warehousing capacity is finally loosening up, and firms are utilizing slightly more of the available transportation capacity to replenish those goods. Like 2019, it seems that there’s a recession in the freight industry, but not in the overall economy.

Anyhow, Let’s Define A Few More Technical Price Marks That Might Be Important
In The Coming Days, Based On Today’s Price Action Intraday Development On This Trading Day

33678.26 points was the closed today. On the 30 min. intraday candelstick chart we have to realize and accept that the bears are taking over the price action averagly about the last 5 trading days and/or last 20 trading days. Because the 65 SMA and/or 260 SMA is actuallity above at 33772.34 and/or 33731.74 points.

33436.66 points, 33325.37 points, and/or 33235.85 points are important price action areas – which we bulls need to defend.
33593.32 points, 33677.74 points, 33730.85 points, and/or 33791.89 points we bulls need to get back – to get a technically bullish outlook.
33891.15 points, 34018.62 points, and/or 34082.94 points are pathbreaking for us bulls – to start thinking about new annual highs in 2023 back again.
That`s why i pay a lot of attention to the 34257.83 points from the 1st May 2023 – one trading day after the lowest us unemplyoment rate since the year 1969.
Because only when we trade the Dow Jones above this 34257.83 points again can we argue with a short-term breakout of the medium-term sideway trend! Or?