2023/04/27 (220.083) Technical Analysis

BITCOIN

Technical Analysis For This Week – Price Action Of The Past Few Days, From Today
It´s The Same Detail Overview Analysis And/Or Synthesis, Which I Wrote In The Week Before

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023. Because the $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 on the overside are still a small handful of $1000 away. Which is why we should focus on $27365 as well as $28740 in day trading. So that if there is no above-average positive or negative news in the coming days and weeks, there may well be a technical battle of nerves; when it comes to the BITCOIN price action. The calm before the storm, if you will! Back towards 2000? Or is it finally over 30,000 again?

However, Let`s Get A Short Detail Overview About Todays Price Action In The European And/Or US Stock Market Also,
Because The Big US Tech Players Are Publishing Their Quarterly Numbers And/Or The European Banks This 16th Week 2023

Mostly slightly up according to quarterly reports
Europe’s stock markets have mostly increased moderately. While the quarterly reports presented in the middle of the week were often still a burden, numerous business figures on Thursday created a rather positive mood overall. The EuroStoxx 50 ultimately increased by 0.24 percent to 4358.05 points. The French Cac 40 went up 0.23 percent to 7483.84 points. The British FTSE 100, on the other hand, lost 0.27 percent to 7831.58 points. It fell mainly on weakness in the oil and gas sector, particularly on losses at BP and Shell. Some good results from important addresses would have created a certain buying mood, said analyst Pierre Veyret from broker Activtrades. In view of the smoldering dangers in the US banking sector and the forthcoming quarterly reports, however, he advises caution. And Michael Hewson, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, commented: “Despite a flurry of mostly positive quarterly reports, European bourses have struggled to regain momentum after yesterday’s losses.”

Rally after quarterly numbers – thanks largely to meta
Convincing quarterly figures from well-known US companies gave Wall Street and the technology-heavy Nasdaq a boost on Thursday. In particular, the Facebook and Instagram provider Meta impressed with its report at the beginning of the year and an optimistic outlook for the second quarter. After two weaker trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial increased by 1.57 percent to 33,826.16 points. The market-wide S&P 500 gained 1.96 percent to 4135.35 points. The Nasdaq 100 expanded its previous day’s plus and rose by 2.76 percent to 13,160.03 points.

Before We Go Into A Detailed Overview Of Todays BITCOIN`s Future Price Action,
Let`s Get Know Todays Price Action About The USD Index, US10Y, And/Or US WallStreet

The dollar index surged to 101.6 on Thursday, after investors came to terms that recent GDP data will not prevent the Federal Reserve from raising rates next week. The US economy grew less than expected in Q1 as business investment slowed down, residential investment declined and private inventory contributed negatively to the growth. Still, consumer spending remained resilient, increasing by 3.7% and the personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve follows closely, increased by 4.2%, ahead of estimates.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, rose to above the 3.45% mark on Thursday after a round of fresh economic data showed inflation remains a threat to the US economy, strengthening the case for a rate hike next week. Core PCE prices, which are the chosen inflation metric by the Federal Reserve, grew by a hotter-than-expected 4.9% in the quarter, and the headline PCE price index increased by 4.2%, above expectations. Also, although the US economy grew less than expected in Q1, consumer spending remained robust on the back of a strong labor market. Reinforcing the view, weekly unemployment fell in the latest week.

The Dow closed more than 520 points higher on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 2% and 2.4%, respectively, as upbeat earnings took over concerns about a Fed-induced economic slowdown. Meta Platforms soared 13.9% after the Facebook parent beat revenue expectations in the first quarter and issued strong guidance for the current period. Shares of other social media giants like Snap and Pinterest moved in tandem deep into the green. On top of that, Eli Lilly rose 3.7% after raising its full-year profit forecast, while Comcast rallied 10.3% after beating earnings and revenue estimates.From The Technical Analysis Ponit Of View, As I Understand The Art Of Technical Analysis And Predicting,
In The Medium-Term The Psychological Price Action Marks Of $20000 And/Or $30000 Are Crucial For The Long-Term

„What goes up comes down again“, is a wisdom that can also be applied to the historical price action on the BITCOIN Ffuture.
And that especially for the period from the December 2020 to the June 2022. When the BITCOIN Future rose from $19800 to up to $65520 (April 2021), even $69355 (November 2021). To drop back down to $18760 (June 2022). Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the BITCOIN Future in monthly candlesticks, the price action traded in the form of a Gaussian bell, if you will! What is a Gaussian Bell? With a Gaussian distribution, also known as a normal distribution, the data form a bell curve. This means that the values are closer to the means than to the extremes. The Gaussian curve was named after the mathematician and physicist Carl Friedrich Gauss. So I’m asking myself the question, in terms of the BITCOIN price action, “Are we getting back to the mean above $30000?” And/Or “was that a historical aberration in terms of price action in bitcoin? So a deviation from normal price action, above $30000? Above $20000? Avove $10000?“

However, for our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN Future the monthly lows, above $30000, during the breakout from December 2020 to June 2022 are nonetheless decisive. Because if bullish investors got long above these price levels at the time, they are still making losses today. And should bearish investors then have went short still have a profit today. So that sustained daily price action, of days, weeks, months, above the January 2021, May 2021, June 2021, and July 2021 lows fundamentally changes the historical technical chart picture back to bullish. But as before, in terms of short-term process action, this is a topic of the future.

Long talk, short sense:
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $32140 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests long-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $30100 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28740 – price action above confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28105 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $27365 – price action under confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $25350 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests long-term bearish

That’s why I’ve tightened our stop price since this week – even at $2530.
Because after we all had to finish the last 3 4XSetUps with a minus, I minimize the risk a bit. And that also with the knowledge of the risk in the back of my head that the BITCOIN Future will then recover again. Speak rises! What if? Should this unexpectedly happen, then we will simply formulate a new long BTC1! 4XSetUp! And should the BTC1! then be traded below $25350 again in the medium and/or longer term? Then that was it with the BITCOIN Future! At least from my side. Because you know that I’m basically not a fan of the BTC1!. But on the contrary! To paraphrase Roubini: „…to me, the whole crypto space is one of assets that are not really money. They’re not really a currency.“But Independent Of My Fundamental Basic Opinion About The BITCOIN Future
Here Once Again My Current Technical Analysis About Today’s Trading Session

„Hold your nerves!“, that`s it – about the BITCOIN Future price action. Because if we’re lucky, the bulls will attack again tomorrow and/or in the coming days; to get above $30000 again. That`s our target also, at first. Nevertheless, a fall of up to $25350 is also possible. Which would then also confirm the bearish break to the downside of a medium-term trend reversal formation in the long-term historical picture. Which is why we remain long above $25350. And/Or we raised up our stop price in this BTC1! long 4XSetUp up to $25350. Yesterday, BTC1! opened at $28320 and/or closed at $27900. But had an intraday high at $30050 and/or low at $27900 – with a trading range of until 10%. Now it’s time to defend the $28740 and/or $27365. In order not to fall back to $25350. And being stopped out; with this long BTC1! 4XSetUp. The $30100 price action area is the first goal, next to the psychologically important $30000. Which is due to May 12, 2022. Because on this day a bearish huge Doji was traded – before the price action went down to new old lows around under $20000 by the beginning of November 2022. So that with a price action above $30100 we can also argue on the time axis with a medium-term trend reversal formation.

Following price actions are pathbreaking for the next days and/or weeks: $30050, $28320, $28740, $27900, $27365
Because a fall to $25350 is daily possible; even i am still slightly mnore bullish as beasrish for the BITCOIN Future above $27365.
That´s why do not trade the BITCOIN Future without a stopprice. I’ve raised our stopprice up to $25350. Because a price action above $25350, a medium-term trend reversal formation is still being traded in the long-term context of the BITCOIN chart. And that with the aim of breaking through the $28105 and/or $32140 price action mark upwards. Which would then manifest a long-term bullish picture. Why? I hope I explained it enough in the last days, weeks and/or month. From next week, on tuesday (the 2nd may `23), I will not write about the BITCOIN Future any more! Much more about the DOW Future and/or our other open 4XSetUps…