2023/04/26 (219.082) Technical Analysis

BITCOIN

Technical Analysis For This Week – Price Action Of The Past Few Days, From Today
It´s The Same Detail Overview Analysis And/Or Synthesis, Which I Wrote In The Week Before

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023. Because the $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 on the overside are still a small handful of $1000 away. Which is why we should focus on $27365 as well as $28740 in day trading. So that if there is no above-average positive or negative news in the coming days and weeks, there may well be a technical battle of nerves; when it comes to the BITCOIN price action. The calm before the storm, if you will! Back towards 2000? Or is it finally over 30,000 again?

However, Let`s Get A Short Detail Overview About Todays Price Action In The European And/Or US Stock Market Also,
Because The Big US Tech Players Are Publishing Their Quarterly Numbers And/Or The European Banks This 16th Week 2023

Slight losses – concerns about US regional banks
Problems in parts of the US banking landscape clouded sentiment on the German stock market on Wednesday. After the bad news from the ailing regional bank First Republic, which weighed on share prices in New York the night before, economic confidence remains subdued. Unexpectedly good quarterly reports from Microsoft and Alphabet from the US technology sector were not enough to lift the indices in this country into positive territory.Dow weakens – Microsoft helps Nasdaq on the jumps
Surprisingly strong quarterly figures from Microsoft gave the technology-heavy Nasdaq exchanges a slight boost on Wednesday. The best-known Wall Street index, the Dow Jones Industrial, fell. In general, the mood for standard values was rather depressed. This was not least due to concerns about the US banking sector that had flared up again since Tuesday. The Dow Jones ultimately lost 0.68 percent to 33,301.87 points. The market-wide S&P 500 fell 0.38 percent to 4055.99 points. At the same time, the technology-heavy selection index Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.64 percent to 12,806.49 points. Uncertainty reigns supreme on Wall Street. According to market expert Timo Emden, the “fear of another bank earthquake” has returned to investors’ minds. “The focus is once again on the First Republic Bank.” It once again triggers concerns about renewed turbulence and possible contagion effects in the industry.

Before We Go Into A Detailed Overview Of Todays BITCOIN`s Future Price Action,
Let`s Get Know Todays Price Action About The USD Index, US10Y, And/Or US WallStreet

The dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, with the DXY softening towards 101, as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy and growth. Data on Tuesday showed US consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, exacerbating concerns that the world’s largest economy would fall into recession later this year. On the monetary side, the Federal Reserve will likely deliver another 25bps rate hike next week as signs of persistent inflation suggest the tightening cycle is not over. Still, money markets are pricing in the peak for US interest rates in June and then a decline to end the year below 4.5%. Investors now look ahead to first-quarter GDP data for more clues into the state of the economy.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, eased to around 3.4% as money flew into safe-haven government debt amid lingering concerns about Fed-induced recession late in 2023. Still-high inflation and a slew of hawkish speeches from policymakers prompted bets for another 25bps increase in the Fed funds rate next month. Investors now focus on critical economic data, including the US GDP on Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday, for further insight into the central bank’s future policy. Meanwhile, money markets continue to see interest rates peaking in the coming weeks before a series of cuts later this year.

The Dow sank over 220 points on Wednesday while the S&P 500 slid 0.4% as renewed fears about the US banking sector weighed on sentiments. First Republic Bank plunged 29.7% after Bloomberg reported the lender is studying divesting as much as $100 billion of assets as part of a rescue plan. Shares of the bank tumbled almost 50% in the previous session after reporting that deposits shrank by 41% in the first quarter. On the other hand, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5% led by upbeat results from corporate America. Microsoft jumped 7.2% after beating quarterly estimates for both revenue and earnings, and Boeing rose 0.4% after the planemaker said it would boost production of 737 Max planes. At the same time, Alphabet finished 0.1% lower amid better-than-expected earnings.From The Technical Analysis Ponit Of View, As I Understand The Art Of Technical Analysis And Predicting,
In The Medium-Term The Psychological Price Action Marks Of $20000 And/Or $30000 Are Crucial For The Long-Term

„What goes up comes down again“, is a wisdom that can also be applied to the historical price action on the BITCOIN Ffuture.
And that especially for the period from the December 2020 to the June 2022. When the BITCOIN Future rose from $19800 to up to $65520 (April 2021), even $69355 (November 2021). To drop back down to $18760 (June 2022). Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the BITCOIN Future in monthly candlesticks, the price action traded in the form of a Gaussian bell, if you will! What is a Gaussian Bell? With a Gaussian distribution, also known as a normal distribution, the data form a bell curve. This means that the values are closer to the means than to the extremes. The Gaussian curve was named after the mathematician and physicist Carl Friedrich Gauss. So I’m asking myself the question, in terms of the BITCOIN price action, “Are we getting back to the mean above $30000?” And/Or “was that a historical aberration in terms of price action in bitcoin? So a deviation from normal price action, above $30000? Above $20000? Avove $10000?“

However, for our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN Future the monthly lows, above $30000, during the breakout from December 2020 to June 2022 are nonetheless decisive. Because if bullish investors got long above these price levels at the time, they are still making losses today. And should bearish investors then have went short still have a profit today. So that sustained daily price action, of days, weeks, months, above the January 2021, May 2021, June 2021, and July 2021 lows fundamentally changes the historical technical chart picture back to bullish. But as before, in terms of short-term process action, this is a topic of the future.

Long talk, short sense:
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $32140 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests long-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $30100 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28740 – price action above confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28105 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $27365 – price action under confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $25350 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests long-term bearish

That’s why I’ve tightened our stop price since this week – even at $2530.
Because after we all had to finish the last 3 4XSetUps with a minus, I minimize the risk a bit. And that also with the knowledge of the risk in the back of my head that the BITCOIN Future will then recover again. Speak rises! What if? Should this unexpectedly happen, then we will simply formulate a new long BTC1! 4XSetUp! And should the BTC1! then be traded below $25350 again in the medium and/or longer term? Then that was it with the BITCOIN Future! At least from my side. Because you know that I’m basically not a fan of the BTC1!. But on the contrary! To paraphrase Roubini: „…to me, the whole crypto space is one of assets that are not really money. They’re not really a currency.“But Independent Of My Fundamental Basic Opinion About The BITCOIN Future
Here Once Again My Current Technical Analysis About Today’s Trading Session

Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent moves between the $27,000 and $30,000 zones have caused a lot of volatility in the cryptocurrency market over the past few days.
Despite a recent correction, BTC has seen an almost 3% appreciation over the past week. Now it’s time to defend the $28740 and/or $27365. In order not to fall back to $25350. And being stopped out; with this long BTC1! 4XSetUp. The $30100 price action area is the first goal, next to the psychologically important $30000. Which is due to May 12, 2022. Because on this day a bearish huge Doji was traded – before the price action went down to new old lows around under $20000 by the beginning of November 2022. So that with a price action above $30100 we can also argue on the time axis with a medium-term trend reversal formation. For now! Why are bulls/bears so heavy at, around 30,000?

The BITCOIN Price Action is fundamentally emotionally driven. And since I’m basically not a friend of the BOTCOIn, I also use the technical analysis of the BITCOIN as a philosophical psychology exercise; for my new book series. Because there is nothing behind BITCOIN. It’s a pure zero-sum game; if you will. In contrast to the DOW Future. Who is also a pure zero-sum game. But behind the individual 30 stocks; there are 30 huge companies with millions of employees, huge sales and/or other regular proflts. The stoic ideal state is apathy, i.e. lack of emotion. In order to achieve this, however, the Stoics deal excessively with emotions. And resort to all sorts of definitional approaches. So does my humble person. Which, in the case of technical analysis, manifests itself in the form of a doji, on candlesticks. Of course, of course, I won’t go so far as to talk about a science; that`s why I always argue and/or operate with hypotheses. Because, in my opinion, human behavior is fundamentally more instinctive and/or emotionally driven than rational. I also mean my humble person. Even like todays big red doji in the daily canlestick chart. Opened at $28320 and/or closed at $27900 was not big. Bit much more todays intraday high at $30050 and/or low at $27900! Isn`t it?