2023/04/25 (218.081) Technical Analysis

BITCOIN

Technical Analysis For This Week – Price Action Of The Past Few Days, From Today
It´s The Same Detail Overview Analysis And/Or Synthesis, Which I Wrote In The Week Before

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023. Because the $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 on the overside are still a small handful of $1000 away. Which is why we should focus on $27365 as well as $28740 in day trading. So that if there is no above-average positive or negative news in the coming days and weeks, there may well be a technical battle of nerves; when it comes to the BITCOIN price action. The calm before the storm, if you will! Back towards 2000? Or is it finally over 30,000 again?

However, Let`s Get A Short Detail Overview About Todays Price Action In The European And/Or US Stock Market Also,
Because The Big US Tech Players Are Publishing Their Quarterly Numbers And/Or The European Banks This 16th Week 2023

Dax stagnates in front of numbers from the US tech industry
Investors on the German stock market exercised caution before the quarterly figures of large US technology groups. The leading index Dax increased slightly by 0.05 percent to 15,872.13 points on Tuesday. The round mark of 16,000 points remains too high a hurdle for the time being. The MDax of medium-sized stocks fell by 0.66 percent to 27,546.69 points.

Weak – Concerns about US banking sector are heating up again
The US stock exchanges came under some pressure on Tuesday after a largely stable trend. Investors were increasingly nervous about the expected after-hours numbers from tech giants Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet. The quarterly report from the US regional bank First Republic reignited concerns about the US banking sector. In addition, the parcel service UPS disappointed with its more cautious outlook. A significant downturn in consumer sentiment in April did the rest. The Dow Jones fell by 0.95 percent to 33,553.71 points around two hours before the end. The market-wide S&P 500 lost 1.36 percent to 4080.86 points. The technology-heavy selection index Nasdaq 100 lost 1.48 percent to 12,778.22 points.

Before We Go Into A Detailed Overview Of Todays BITCOIN`s Future Price Action,
Let`s Get Know Todays Price Action About The USD Index, US10Y, And/Or US WallStreet

The dollar strengthened sharply against a basket of major currencies, pushing the DXY towards the 102 mark on the back of a flight to safety as concerns about the banking system resurfaced following disappointing earnings from First Republic Bank and UBS. On top of that, the Federal Reserve will likely deliver another 25bps rate hike next week as signs of persistent inflation suggest the tightening cycle is not over yet. Still, money markets are now pricing in the peak for US interest rates in June and then a decline to end the year below 4.5%. Investors now look ahead to first-quarter GDP data and April consumer sentiment data for more clues on the state of the economy and more earnings reports from major US firms. This dollar’s strength was seen across the board, with some of the most pronounced buying activity against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, eased to around 3.4% as money flew into safe-haven government debt amid lingering concerns about Fed-induced recession late in 2023. Still-high inflation and a slew of hawkish speeches from policymakers prompted bets for another 25bps increase in the Fed funds rate next month. Investors now focus on critical economic data, including the US GDP on Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday, for further insight into the central bank’s future policy.

The blue-chip Dow closed more than 300 points lower on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost nearly 1.6% and 2%, respectively, as investors digested the latest corporate earnings results for clues about the health of the US economy. First Republic tumbled 49.4% after the regional bank reported that deposits shrank by 41% to $104.5 billion last quarter, reigniting concerns about a banking crisis. United Parcel Service fell nearly 10% amid worse-than-expected Q1 revenue due to a deceleration in US retail sales. On the positive side of the ledger, PepsiCo added 2.3% after posting quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations. Mcdonald’s (-0.5%) also reported quarterly results that surprised investors on the upside. Market participants now await results from tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet after the bell. On the data front, US consumer confidence declined to the lowest level since July.From The Technical Analysis Ponit Of View, As I Understand The Art Of Technical Analysis And Predicting,
In The Medium-Term The Psychological Price Action Marks Of $20000 And/Or $30000 Are Crucial For The Long-Term

„What goes up comes down again“, is a wisdom that can also be applied to the historical price action on the BITCOIN Ffuture.
And that especially for the period from the December 2020 to the June 2022. When the BITCOIN Future rose from $19800 to up to $65520 (April 2021), even $69355 (November 2021). To drop back down to $18760 (June 2022). Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the BITCOIN Future in monthly candlesticks, the price action traded in the form of a Gaussian bell, if you will! What is a Gaussian Bell? With a Gaussian distribution, also known as a normal distribution, the data form a bell curve. This means that the values are closer to the means than to the extremes. The Gaussian curve was named after the mathematician and physicist Carl Friedrich Gauss. So I’m asking myself the question, in terms of the BITCOIN price action, “Are we getting back to the mean above $30000?” And/Or “was that a historical aberration in terms of price action in bitcoin? So a deviation from normal price action, above $30000? Above $20000? Avove $10000?“

However, for our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN Future the monthly lows, above $30000, during the breakout from December 2020 to June 2022 are nonetheless decisive. Because if bullish investors got long above these price levels at the time, they are still making losses today. And should bearish investors then have went short still have a profit today. So that sustained daily price action, of days, weeks, months, above the January 2021, May 2021, June 2021, and July 2021 lows fundamentally changes the historical technical chart picture back to bullish. But as before, in terms of short-term process action, this is a topic of the future.

Long talk, short sense:
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $32140 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests long-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $30100 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28740 – price action above confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28105 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $27365 – price action under confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $25350 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests long-term bearish

That’s why I’ve tightened our stop price since this week – even at $2530.
Because after we all had to finish the last 3 4XSetUps with a minus, I minimize the risk a bit. And that also with the knowledge of the risk in the back of my head that the BITCOIN Future will then recover again. Speak rises! What if? Should this unexpectedly happen, then we will simply formulate a new long BTC1! 4XSetUp! And should the BTC1! then be traded below $25350 again in the medium and/or longer term? Then that was it with the BITCOIN Future! At least from my side. Because you know that I’m basically not a fan of the BTC1!. But on the contrary! To paraphrase Roubini: „…to me, the whole crypto space is one of assets that are not really money. They’re not really a currency.“But Independent Of My Fundamental Basic Opinion About The BITCOIN Future
Here Once Again My Current Technical Analysis About Today’s Trading Session

The BITCOIN Guture was traded wholesale today in the form of a green doji.
A doji usually always manifests a trade of exhaustion; so a period of time in which the trade comes to itself. A seated meditating Buddha, if you will – after an oscillating up and/or down, for a period of time. As in our case on today’s trading day. A calming amplitude after a sinusoidal trading day.

A doji is also something like a stoic, if you will.
A special feature of the Stoic philosophy is the cosmological, holistic view of the world, which results in a universal principle governing all natural phenomena and natural contexts. Followers of the Stoa are called Stoics. The Stoic as an individual has to recognize and fill his place in this order by learning to accept his lot through the practice of emotional self-control and striving for wisdom with the help of serenity and peace of mind (ataraxia).

What for us, in the context means: Hold your nerves!
Because if we’re lucky, the bulls will attack again tomorrow and/or in the coming days; to get above $30000 again. That`s our target also, at first. Nevertheless, a fall of up to $25350 is also possible. Which would then also confirm the bearish break to the downside of a medium-term trend reversal formation in the long-term historical picture. Which is why we remain long above $25350. And/Or we raised up our stop price in this BTC1! long 4XSetUp up to $25350.