2023/04/23 (216.079) Technical Analysis

It Was A Red Bearish Week For The BITCOIN Future
– What Hurts My Green Bulls. That`s Why We`re Tightening Our Stop Price

Technical Analysis For This Week – Price Action Of The Past Few Days, From Today
It´s The Same Detail Overview Analysis And/Or Synthesis, Which I Wrote In The Week Before

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023. Because the $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 on the overside are still a small handful of $1000 away. Which is why we should focus on $27365 as well as $28740 in day trading. So that if there is no above-average positive or negative news in the coming days and weeks, there may well be a technical battle of nerves; when it comes to the BITCOIN price action. The calm before the storm, if you will! Back towards 2000? Or is it finally over 30,000 again?

However, Let`s Get A Short Detail Overview About Todays Price Action In The European And/Or US Stock Market Also,
Because The Big US Tech Players Are Publishing Their Quarterly Numbers And/Or The European Banks This 16th Week 2023

Although the momentum on the German DAX has not been noticeable recently, experts believe that investors can start the new week with optimism. “It seems only a matter of time before the Dax exceeds the 16,000 point mark again,” wrote Helaba. Our leading german stock market index is currently separated by just over 100 points. However, the LBBW analysts warn against taking profits in view of a downturn in the US economy. The reporting season for companies is likely to cause further excitement. A pleasing price development in the past few weeks was recently followed by price declines and stagnation in the Dax. “Slowly, market participants are realizing that the central banks are anything but willing to support the markets again with falling interest rates in the near future,” commented Ulrich Kater, chief economist at Dekabank. “We are now at a crucial juncture in the central bank tightening cycle, made even more difficult by last month’s mini-banking crisis and its impact on lending and the economy later in the year,” said Craig Erlam, market analyst at Oanda. For the US Federal Reserve in particular, there is now an even greater risk, especially since the latest economic data have heightened fears of a recession in the United States. “While both the US and Great Britain are probably facing a mild recession, China is increasingly stepping on the gas again – and the euro area including Germany is in between with its mini-growth,” wrote Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck. For the first quarter of 2023, the expert expects solid growth figures, especially for the USA, which will be published on Thursday. Gross domestic product in the first quarter for Germany and the euro zone will follow on Friday.

Before We Go Into A Detailed Overview Of Todays BITCOIN`s Future Price Action,
Let`s Get Know Todays Price Action About The USD Index, US10Y, And/Or US WallStreet

The dollar index rose back to 102 on Friday and was set to finish the week higher, snapping five straight weeks of losses, as stronger-than-expected PMI data reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in May. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in April, signaling the quickest upturn in business activity since May 2022 with the services activity growth hitting a 12-month high and manufacturing output expanding at the fastest rate since May 2022. On the monetary policy front, a slew of Fed officials supported the need for further policy tightening to bring down inflation, with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard favoring a higher terminal rate of between 5.50% to 5.75%.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, consolidated around 3.6% as investors parsed through new economic data while assessing the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking path. US business activity accelerated to an 11-month high in April, easing concerns that the world’s largest economy is on the brink of a recession but throwing cold water into expectations that the central bank will soon end its historic tightening campaign. It contrasted with data released on April 20th which showed the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index sank more than expected while initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose for the second week and continuing claims hit the highest since November 2021. Money markets priced in a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate next month, while a cut is likely by the end of the year.

All major US stock indexes finished slightly above the flatline on Friday amid mixed corporate earnings results and as investors were cautious about the future of the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Procter & Gamble gained 3.5% on upbeat profit results, while HCA Healthcare jumped 3.9% after raising its guidance forecast. CSX added 3.3% after the company’s first-quarter results topped expectations. Still, this week, dismal quarterly results from Tesla and AT&T and data pointing to a further slowdown in the labor market continued to weigh on investor sentiment. On the macro front, US business activity accelerated to an 11-month high in April, easing some concerns that the world’s largest economy is on the brink of a recession. Considering the week, the Dow lost 0.3% and snapped its four-week win streak, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down by 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively.

From The Technical Analysis Ponit Of View, As I Understand The Art Of Technical Analysis And Predicting,
In The Medium-Term The Psychological Price Action Marks Of $20000 And/Or $30000 Are Crucial For The Long-Term

„What goes up comes down again“, is a wisdom that can also be applied to the historical price action on the BITCOIN Ffuture.
And that especially for the period from the December 2020 to the June 2022. When the BITCOIN Future rose from $19800 to up to $65520 (April 2021), even $69355 (November 2021). To drop back down to $18760 (June 2022). Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the BITCOIN Future in monthly candlesticks, the price action traded in the form of a Gaussian bell, if you will! What is a Gaussian Bell? With a Gaussian distribution, also known as a normal distribution, the data form a bell curve. This means that the values are closer to the means than to the extremes. The Gaussian curve was named after the mathematician and physicist Carl Friedrich Gauss. So I’m asking myself the question, in terms of the BITCOIN price action, “Are we getting back to the mean above $30000?” And/Or “was that a historical aberration in terms of price action in bitcoin? So a deviation from normal price action, above $30000? Above $20000? Avove $10000?“

However, for our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN Future the monthly lows, above $30000, during the breakout from December 2020 to June 2022 are nonetheless decisive. Because if bullish investors got long above these price levels at the time, they are still making losses today. And should bearish investors then have went short still have a profit today. So that sustained daily price action, of days, weeks, months, above the January 2021, May 2021, June 2021, and July 2021 lows fundamentally changes the historical technical chart picture back to bullish. But as before, in terms of short-term process action, this is a topic of the future.

Long talk, short sense:
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $32140 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests long-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $30100 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28740 – price action above confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28105 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $27365 – price action under confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $25350 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests long-term bearish

That’s why I’ve tightened our stop price since this week – even at $2530.
Because after we all had to finish the last 3 4XSetUps with a minus, I minimize the risk a bit. And that also with the knowledge of the risk in the back of my head that the BITCOIN Future will then recover again. Speak rises! What if? Should this unexpectedly happen, then we will simply formulate a new long BTC1! 4XSetUp! And should the BTC1! then be traded below $25350 again in the medium and/or longer term? Then that was it with the BITCOIN Future! At least from my side. Because you know that I’m basically not a fan of the BTC1!. But on the contrary! To paraphrase Roubini: „…to me, the whole crypto space is one of assets that are not really money. They’re not really a currency.“

But Independent Of My Fundamental Basic Opinion About The BITCOIN Future
Here Once Again My Current Technical Analysis About Today’s Trading Session

Bitcoin has managed to creep back up a bit, but at the current price action around $27600, it’s not doing very well yet when compared to last week’s price. After all, Bitcoin was above $30,000 not too long ago. However, we cannot go up in a straight line, every bull market is one of ups and downs.

Bitcoin has broken the uptrend channel to the downside within an ascending trend channel in the short term.
A lower increase in value is to be expected or the beginning of a sideways development. The BTC1! Future has broken down the support at around $28200. This signals further downside and there is now resistance at $28200 points on any backlash. In the short term, the BITCOIN Future is considered technically negative.

In the medium-term the BITCOIN Future is moving in an uptrend channel .
This signals increasing investor optimism and suggests further price increases for BTC1!. The Crypto has support around $25000 points and resistance around $30600. Volume has historically been high on highs and low on lows. This strengthens the trend picture. The RSI curve is sloping down. This is an early signal that a possible downward trend reversal is also imminent in the price. Overall, the BITCOIN Future is considered technically positive over the medium term.