2023/04/20 (215.078) Technical Analysis

Yesterday -3.5% And/Or Today -4.0% In BTC1! Price Action!
It Seems Like That The Bears Are Takin`Over $30000 This Week?

In The Medium-Term The Psychological Price Action marks Of $20000 And/Or $30000 Are Crucial For The Long-Term

„What goes up comes down again“, is a wisdom that can also be applied to the historical price action on the BITCOIN future.
And that especially for the period from the December 2020 to the June 2022. When the BITCOIN future rose from $19800 to up to $65520 (April 2021), even $69355 (November 2021). To drop back down to $18760 (June 2022). Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the BITCOIN future in monthly candlesticks, the price action traded in the form of a Gaussian bell, if you will! What is a Gaussian Bell? With a Gaussian distribution, also known as a normal distribution, the data form a bell curve. This means that the values are closer to the means than to the extremes. It is a Gaussian curve. It was named after the mathematician and physicist Carl Friedrich Gauss. So I’m asking myself the question, in terms of BITCOIN price action, “Are we getting back to the mean above 30,000?” And/Or “was that a historical aberration in terms of price action in bitcoin? So a deviation from normal price action, above 30000? From over 20000? From over 10000?“

However, for our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN future the monthly lows, above 30000, during the breakout from December 2020 to June 2022 are nonetheless decisive. Because if bullish investors got long above these price levels at the time, they are still making losses today. And should bearish investors then have went short are still have a profit. So that sustained daily price action, of days, weeks, months, above the lows of January 2021, May 2021, June 2021, and July 2021 fundamentally changes the historical technical chart picture back to bullish. But as before, in terms of short-term process action, this is a topic of the future.

Before We Go Into A Detailed Overview Of BITCOIN`s Future Price Action From Today,
Let`s Revisit The Price Action Of The USD Index, The US 10Y Bond Yield, And/Or Even The US WallStreet

The dollar index dropped below 102 on Thursday after gaining some ground in the previous session, as more data pointed to a weakening economy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve was set to hike rates again at the next meeting. The latest figures indicated weekly claims rose for the second week, and the Philadelphia Fed report showed business activity in the US Mid-Atlantic region contracted more than anticipated in April. Markets continue to price in a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate in May, while a cut is now expected at the end of the year. New York Fed Bank President John Williams said on Wednesday that inflation remained at problematic levels, and the central bank would act to lower it. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also revealed earlier this week favoring a higher terminal rate of between 5.50% to 5.75%, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic saw one more 25 basis point hike before the pause.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, eased to around 3.5% from nearly one-month highs of 3.6% touched on April 19th after new data signaled an economic slowdown. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index sank more than expected to its lowest since May 2020, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose for the second week and continuing claims hit the highest since November 2021. Still, markets continue to price a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate next month, while a cut is mostly expected by the end of the year. New York Fed President Williams recently said inflation is still too high and the central bank needs to hold policy tight. Appearances from other policymakers this week are also set to provide further hints on the policy outlook.

US stocks remained under pressure for the second straight session on Thursday as investors continued to digest the latest batch of earnings and comments from Federal Reserve speakers. The Dow lost over 100 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slid 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Tesla sank 9.7% after the electric vehicle manufacturer unveiled its lowest quarterly gross margin in two years, followed by more price cuts on its models. Similarly, AT&T plummeted 10.4% after it missed estimates of free cash flow. On the other hand, IBM ended in the green after it said margins were expanding. Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester supports for another rate hike to tame inflation while emphasizing the need to watch recent bank turmoil that could dampen the economy. On the economic front, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose for the second week and continuous claims jumped to their highest since November 2021, the latest signal that the labor market is softening.

Basically Technical Short-Term Price Action Areas And/Or Zones For This Week

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023. Because the$25350 on the downside and/or $32140 on the overside are still a small handful of $1000 away. Which is why we should focus on $27365 as well as $28740 in day trading. So that if there is no above-average positive or negative news in the coming days and weeks, there may well be a technical battle of nerves; when it comes to the BITCOIN price action. The calm before the storm, if you will! Back towards 2000? Or is it finally over 30,000 again?

However, Let`s Take A Short Overview About Released US Economic Data From Today

Philadelphia Factory Activity Sinks The Most Since 2020
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US fell to -31.3 points in April of 2023, the lowest since May of 2020 from -23.2 in March. It marks an eighth consecutive negative reading, missing market expectations of -19.2. Indicators for activity remained negative, but less than last month, namely new orders (-22.7 vs -28.2) and shipments (-7.3 vs -25.4). The employment index suggests steady employment overall (-0.2 vs -10.3) while both prices paid (8.2 vs 23.5) and received (-3.3 vs 7.9) declined to their lowest levels since mid-2020. The future indicators suggest that firms’ expectations for growth over the next six months remain subdued (-1.5 vs -8).

US Initial Jobless Claims Rise For A Second Week
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 5 thousand to 245 thousand on the week ending April 15th, the most in one month and above market expectations of 240 thousand. The result was in line with a batch of recent data that suggested some softening in the US labor market, breaking the long streak of releases pointing to a tight labor market despite aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, fell by 500 to 239,750. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, claims fell by 7,021 from the previous week to 228,216, with notable decreases in California (-3,732) and Texas (-2,988), while considerable increases took place in New York (+6,703) and Georgia (+3,079).

And/Or Let`s Put The Last News Of The ECB & PBOC In The Right Context Of The Actually BITCOIN Future Price Action

Most European Central Bank policymakers agreed to raise key interest rates by 50 basis points last month, though some members would have preferred not to increase them until the financial market tensions had subsided, the accounts of the central bank’s March policy meeting showed. Still, ECB officials widely concurred on the resilience of the euro area banking system, noting that the central bank had further ground to cover in adjusting the monetary policy stance to ensure a timely return of inflation to target. Looking ahead, the bank assessed risks to the inflation as tilted to the upside over the entire horizon, with some policymakers arguing that there was only a small probability that the CPI rate would fall back to low levels as quickly as suggested in the March ECB staff projections. The ECB is set to deliver a 25 bps rate increase in May and other two are expected by mid-year after raising borrowing costs at the fastest pace on record to combat inflation.The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its key lending rates steady for the eighth straight month at April fixing, as the economic recovery has returned on track after the withdrawal of most anti-COVID measures last December. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), which the medium-term lending facility uses for corporate and household loans, was kept unchanged at 3.65%; while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was maintained at 4.3%. The move came after the central bank held its medium-term policy rate at 2.75% earlier in the week. The board continued to bolster liquidity support as it rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans with higher cash offerings for the fifth month in April. China’s economy expanded 4.5% yoy in the first quarter of 2023, accelerating from a 2.9% gain in the fourth quarter. The GDP growth reading was the strongest since the first quarter of 2022 and beat market estimates of 4%. China last cut both LPRs in August.

Anyway, Le Me Record It Again In A Detail Overview,
What This All Means Concret For The Price Action In The BTC1!

Bitcoin is still bullish after two bad days; but stay aware. The Fib supports at around $25,667 and/or $23,250 are nit far away and were not touched (yet). That`s why the next target could be the golden ratio resistance around $36000, which implies an upside potential of around 20%. However, the MACD lines and/or histogram on daily chart are bullish, RSI has yet to break resistance – where i have no charts in todays D2D edition. Sorry, for that technical problem. The golden crossover of the 100 SMA and/ior 200 SMA is still in play! May be to much? Because the previous medium term bearish death cross on the weekly chart has been even replaced by the golden crossover in the daily chart, so that all in all the trend now stills confirmed medium term bullish.