2023/04/19 (214.077) Technical Analysis – NASDAQ-CSCO & CME-BTC1!

An Ugly And/Or Disgusting Bearish Trading Session,
BTC1! Closed On Weekly Low! It Could End Badly, This Week?


In The Medium-Term The Psychological Price Action marks Of $20000 And/Or $30000 Are Crucial For The Long-Term

„What goes up comes down again“, is a wisdom that can also be applied to the historical price action on the BITCOIN future.
And that especially for the period from the December 2020 to the June 2022. When the BITCOIN future rose from $19800 to up to $65520 (April 2021), even $69355 (November 2021). To drop back down to $18760 (June 2022). Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the BITCOIN future in monthly candlesticks, the price action traded in the form of a Gaussian bell, if you will! What is a Gaussian Bell? With a Gaussian distribution, also known as a normal distribution, the data form a bell curve. This means that the values are closer to the means than to the extremes. It is a Gaussian curve. It was named after the mathematician and physicist Carl Friedrich Gauss. So I’m asking myself the question, in terms of BITCOIN price action, “Are we getting back to the mean above 30,000?” And/Or “was that a historical aberration in terms of price action in bitcoin? So a deviation from normal price action, above 30000? From over 20000? From over 10000?“

However, for our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN future the monthly lows, above 30000, during the breakout from December 2020 to June 2022 are nonetheless decisive. Because if bullish investors got long above these price levels at the time, they are still making losses today. And should bearish investors then have went short are still have a profit. So that sustained daily price action, of days, weeks, months, above the lows of January 2021, May 2021, June 2021, and July 2021 fundamentally changes the historical technical chart picture back to bullish. But as before, in terms of short-term process action, this is a topic of the future.

Before We Go Into A Detailed Overview Of BITCOIN`s Future Price Action From Today,
Let`s Revisit The Price Action Of The USD Index, The US 10Y Bond Yield, And/Or Even The US WallStreet

The dollar index steadied around 102 on Wednesday as traders reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. In the latest Fed commentary, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard shared with Reuters favoring a higher terminal rate of between 5.50% to 5.75% to subdue persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC he saw a final 25 basis point rate hike before the pause to assess the impact on the economy. Markets are currently pricing an 86% chance the Fed would raise the fed funds rate by a quarter-point in May. Investors now anticipate the Fed’s “beige book” of economic conditions on Wednesday, as well as appearances from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams.

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to a 4-week high of 3.6138%

The Dow was slightly lower on Wednesday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 turned higher, as investors digested a batch of earnings reports while mulling the future path of interest rate rises. Morgan Stanley recovered from a 1%-fall after the Wall Street lender reported a 19% drop in quarterly profit as its investment banking business remained under pressure amid a lengthy decline in dealmaking. Netflix declined almost 4% after the video-streaming giant topped analysts’ earnings estimates but offered weak guidance. Tesla, which is set to report after the closing bell, dropped 1% after cutting prices for some of its vehicles for the sixth time this year. On the monetary front, hawkish comments from several policymakers this week dashed hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon be able to pause interest rate increases.

Basically Technical Short-Term Price Action Areas And/Or Zones For This Week

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023. Because the $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 on the overside are still a small handful of $1000 away. Which is why we should focus on $27365 as well as $28740 in day trading. So that if there is no above-average positive or negative news in the coming days and weeks, there may well be a technical battle of nerves; when it comes to the BITCOIN price action. The calm before the storm, if you will! Back towards 2000? Or is it finally over 30,000 again?

However,
Let`s Take A Short Overview About Released US Economic Data From Tuday And/Or Interesting News From UK, Turkey & Japan

US Mortgage Applications Fall SharplyMortgage applications in the US declined 8.8% in the week ended April 14th, 2023, reversing from a 5.3% rise in the previous week, Mortgage Bankers Association data showed, as higher interest rates impacted demand. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) jumped by 13bps to 6.43%, the first increase in six weeks, and compared to a two-month low of 6.3% in the previous period. Applications to purchase a home sank 10% and those to refinance a home loan went down 5.8%. “Affordability challenges persist and there is limited for-sale inventory in many markets across the country, so buyers remain selective on when they act,” Joel Kan, MBA’s chief economist said.

US Mortgage Rates Rise For 1st Time In 6 Weeks: MBA
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) in the United States jumped by 13bps to 6.43% in the week ended April 14th 2023, the first increase in six weeks, and compared to two-month lows of 6.3% in the previous period, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) showed. Borrowing costs have been tracking a rise in Treasury yields as investors reduced their bets the Fed will soon pause the tightening cycle.

UK Inflation Remains Above 10% for 7th Month
The consumer price inflation rate in the United Kingdom eased to 10.1% year-on-year in March 2023, down from 10.4% in February but more than market expectations of 9.8%. The rate remained above the 10% mark for a seventh consecutive period and the Bank of England’s 2% target for almost two years, suggesting policymakers might continue to raise borrowing costs. Main upward pressure came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (19.1% vs 18.0% in February), recreation and culture (4.6% vs 4.0%), and miscellaneous goods and services (6.7% vs 6.6%). The cost of housing and utilities has also increased at a solid pace (26.1% vs 26.6%). Meanwhile, inflation slowed for both transport (0.8% vs 2.9%) and restaurants and hotels (11.3% vs 12.1%). The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, was unchanged at 6.2% in March, not far from September’s record of 6.5%.

Turkish Consumer Morale Highest Since 2018
The consumer confidence index in Turkey jumped to 87.5 in April of 2023, the highest since August 2018, from 80.1 in the previous month. There were significant improvements regarding the expectations over the next 12 months for the general economic situation (95.2 vs 83 in March), the financial situation of households (89.8 vs 79.6), and spending money on durable goods (96.1 vs 92). The sentiment was also higher for the current general economic situation (58.6 vs 54.6), the financial situation of households (69.1 vs 66), and saving (72.1 vs 65). At the same time, the outlook on future inflation increased (72.1 vs 68.8), while concerns regarding unemployment over the next 12 months also grew (84.4 vs 74.7).

Big Japanese Manufacturers Stay Pessimistic
The Reuters Tankan sentiment index for manufacturers in Japan stood at -3 in April 2023, unchanged from March and remaining contractionary for the fourth straight month as the banking turmoil in the West added to concerns about slowing global growth, hurting prospects of an export-led recovery. The negative reading in the monthly survey, which precedes the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan report, indicated that the number of firms considering business conditions poor was greater than the number of firms considering them good. The survey results matched the BOJ tankan published on April 3, which showed the sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers had deteriorated for a fifth consecutive quarter amid high input costs. Looking ahead, the Reuters Tankan manufacturers index is expected to rebound to plus 7 over the next three months.

Anyway, Le Me Record It Again In A Detail Overview,
What This All Means Concret For The Price Action In The BTC1!

A popular analyst expects Bitcoin to fail to make a new all-time high this year. It is the pseudonym Kaleo who explains to his 578,800 followers that many people get lost in the “rush of $1,000 raises” and thereby miss the big picture. For this year, the analyst predicts rapid growth, especially at the beginning of the year. Eventually, according to Kaleo, the current rally will end in the $40,000 range or even shoot past the magical $50,000 mark. According to Kaleo, we shouldn’t expect an all-time high in 2023. In and of itself, that’s not surprising as they usually only come after a halving. In this regard, Kaleo’s prediction is consistent with the story. The next halving is scheduled for April 2024. He doesn’t expect a new all-time high for Bitcoin until late 2024 or early 2025.

However, at first the $30000 are is the front line for bulls/bears! In terms of short-term stock price, Kaleo qualifies as a magnet at $40,000. The analyst believes that it will only be a matter of time before Bitcoin reaches this price. Once we get there, Kaleo seems to be taking some risk off the table for the rest of the year.