2023/04/17 (212.075) Technical Analysis

BITCOIN Future $1000 Cheaper Today
– It`s Going To Be A Roller Coaster Ride Around $30000

In The Medium-Term The Psychological Price Action marks Of $20000 And/Or $30000 Are Crucial For The Long-Term

„What goes up comes down again“, is a wisdom that can also be applied to the historical price action on the BITCOIN future.
And that especially for the period from the December 2020 to the June 2022. When the BITCOIN future rose from $19800 to up to $65520 (April 2021), even $69355 (November 2021). To drop back down to $18760 (June 2022). Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the BITCOIN future in monthly candlesticks, the price action traded in the form of a Gaussian bell, if you will! What is a Gaussian Bell? With a Gaussian distribution, also known as a normal distribution, the data form a bell curve. This means that the values are closer to the means than to the extremes. It is a Gaussian curve. It was named after the mathematician and physicist Carl Friedrich Gauss. So I’m asking myself the question, in terms of BITCOIN price action, “Are we getting back to the mean above 30,000?” And/Or “was that a historical aberration in terms of price action in bitcoin? So a deviation from normal price action, above 30000? From over 20000? From over 10000?“

However, for our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN future the monthly lows, above 30000, during the breakout from December 2020 to June 2022 are nonetheless decisive. Because if bullish investors got long above these price levels at the time, they are still making losses today. And should bearish investors then have went short are still have a profit. So that sustained daily price action, of days, weeks, months, above the lows of January 2021, May 2021, June 2021, and July 2021 fundamentally changes the historical technical chart picture back to bullish. But as before, in terms of short-term process action, this is a topic of the future.

Before We Go Into A Detailed Overview Of BITCOIN`s Future Price Action From Today,
Let`s Revisit The Price Action Of The USD Index, The US 10Y Bond Yield, And/Or Even The US WallStreet

The dollar index rose toward 102 on Monday, rebounding further from one-year lows as the American economy’s resilience and strong earnings from major US banks bolstered market expectations for another interest rate hike in May. Although US retail sales fell more than anticipated in March, core retail sales remained solid. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment increased unexpectedly in April, and inflation projections for the year ahead jumped to a five-month high of4.6%. Elsewhere, better first-quarter earnings results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo eased concerns about the banking turmoil. Markets are currently pricing a 25 basis point rate increase from the Federal Reserve for the next month. The dollar strengthened across the board, with the most pronounced buying activity against the euro and sterling.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, consolidated above 3.6% on expectations of further rate hikes by the Fed. Concerns about a potential US recession and further stress in the banking sector eased amid better-than-expected results from several of the biggest banks. At the same time, investors were worried by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s comments leaning toward further policy tightening as both headline and core inflation remain well above the central bank’s 2% target. His views prompted investors to ramp up bets on another rate hike in June, following one next month, while scaling back expectations for rate cuts later in the year.

All three major US stock indexes step into positive territory by adding more than 0.1% each on Monday afternoon, as investors weigh fresh corporate earnings while awaiting Fed speeches for clues on the central bank’s tightening path and the economy’s health. On the corporate side, State Street shares sank 10.6% after the bank’s first-quarter profit missed expectations, led by a drop in fee income due to the recent U.S. banking crisis. Charles Schwab rose 2.2% following upbeat quarterly results but warning about cash sorting. While banking heavyweights, including JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo, reported better-than-expected results last week, the focus now turns to smaller banks that were at the epicenter of the banking turmoil in March. Meantime, Alphabet fell 2.4% following a report that Samsung was considering replacing Google with Microsoft Corp’s Bing as the default search engine on its devices.

Basically Technical Short-Term Price Action Areas And/Or Zones For This Week

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023. Because the $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 on the overside are still a small handful of $1000 away. Which is why we should focus on $27365 as well as $28740 in day trading. So that if there is no above-average positive or negative news in the coming days and weeks, there may well be a technical battle of nerves; when it comes to the BITCOIN price action. The calm before the storm, if you will! Back towards 2000? Or is it finally over 30,000 again?

However, Let`s Take A Short Overview About Released US Economic Data From Today And/Or Some Interesting News From China

US Homebuilder Sentiment Continues To Improve
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index in the US increased for a fourth month to 45 in April of 2023, a fresh high since September of 2022 and beating market forecasts of 44. The gauge for current sales conditions rose to 51 from 49, sales expectations in the next six months increased to 50 from 47, and traffic of prospective buyers was unchanged at 31. “Builders note that additional declines in mortgage rates, to below 6%, will price-in further demand for housing. Nonetheless, the industry continues to be plagued by building material issues, including lack of access to electrical transformer equipment”, NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey said.

NY Manufacturing Activity Rebounds Sharply
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 10.8 in April of 2023 from -24.6 in March, beating market forecasts of -18. The reading pointed to the first increase in manufacturing in the NY state in five months and the strongest since July last year. The new orders index rebounded to a one-year high of 25.1 from -21.7, price pressures eased (33 vs 41.9) and employment shrank less, although it marked the third consecutive month of falls (-8 vs -10.1). Looking ahead, firms expect business conditions to improve over the next six months (6.6 vs 2.9), with measures of capital expenditures and employment also rising.

China Keeps 1-Year MLF Rate at 2.75%
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total of CNY 170 billion via a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) to some financial institutions and held the interest rate unchanged at 2.75% on April 17th while rolling over MLF policy loans for the fifth consecutive month. With CNY 150 billion of MLF loans set to expire this month, the operation resulted in a net CNY 20 billion fresh fund injection into the banking system, the smallest since November. The central body also pumped CNY 20 billion through a seven-day reverse repurchase operation and kept borrowing costs at 2%.

China New Home Prices Fall The Least in 9 Months
Average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities dropped by 0.8 percent year-on-year in March 2023, after a 1.2 percent fall in the previous month. This was the 11th straight month of decrease in new home prices but the softest pace since June 2022, amid efforts from Beijing since last year to speed up policy measures to support a recovery of the ailing property sector. Among the Chinese biggest cities, prices fell in Tianjin (-1.6% vs 2.2% in February), Shenzhen (-1.5% vs -1.1%), and Guangzhou (-0.2% vs -0.6%). Meantime, prices in Chongqing were flat after declining 0.4% previously, while those in Beijing (4.6% vs 4.7%) and Shanghai (4.1% vs 3.9%) increased further. On a monthly basis, new home prices rose by 0.5 percent, the most in 21 months, after a 0.3 percent gain in February, as the Chinese government moved to reopen the economy from strict pandemic curbs.

Anyway, Le Me Record It Again In A Detail Overview,
What This All Means Concret For The Price Action In The BTC1!

Dave the Wave managed to predict Bitcoin’s bottom in 2022 fairly accurately. Now the analyst’s mood has completely turned and he expects new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2023. That would mean that the price will shoot above $69,000 this year, which seems a long way off at the moment, but can things move fast in the world of bitcoin? But I don’t think so! And at this point I don’t even appeal explicitly that the fight for the $30000 has to be won first. For his predictions, Dave the Wave uses so-called logarithmic growth curves (LGCs) in his technical analyses. In doing so, he tries to predict the long-term highs and lows of each market cycle. If the current symmetrical pattern continues on the chart, Bitcoin could be headed for a new all-time high this year, according to Dave the Wave. On Twitter, a very optimistic Dave the Wave wrote, “IF symmetry holds and Bitcoin continues to make all-time highs, that would still only hit half of the LGC channel.” But Dave the Wave himself also admits that this is technical analysis and not an exact science. Because he also uses words like “IF” – ne too by the way, of course also – and therefore does not speak in terms of certainties when it comes to the Bitcoin price action.

There is just so much uncertainty right now, especially at the macro level of the economies worldwide, such as for example the persistent inflation.
As well as rather on a monetary policy level; due to relatively high interest rates, an impending recession. So that many (un)known factors could possibly deal a significant blow to the Bitcoin Future in the coming days and weeks. That`s why focus on the fight for the $30000 price zone area at first, at least this week.