2023/04/12 (209.072) Technical Analysis – NASDAQ-AMGN & CME-BTC1!

The Bulls/Bears Price Action War For $30000
Has Only Just Begun In The BITCOIN Future, This Week!


This week i want to focus on BITCOIN again. And that in correlation with the development of the DOW JONES stock market, the USD index, and/or the 10-year US government bond. As you know, my readers, I always want to convey something informative to you. I catch myself banging my PC keyboard so unspoken restlessly in my office because I feel like a teacher, like a sports trainer, like a brother, like a nephew, like a son who wants to give his father, his uncle, his siblings, his players, his students, his readers of my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper, some basic facts, even information, that will give you a better understanding of the price action development. Of course, the main thing is to trade profitably. To make the right trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading). So let me stay honest, I’m definitely not the best in this respect – let alone the worst. But when it comes to informing my followers, none of my – including you, yes you, I mean exactly you – need to hide behind another financial market participant anymore. Because you`re secretly imagines that the other financial market participant (who also does this professionally, because it`s his paid job) is better informed than you and/or I`m.

Of course there are price actions where others are better informed than you than me.
Likewise, there are also proce actions where you are better informed than me – or I am better than you.
But if you read my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper daily, every day, day by day, and have been for over a year, then you know that most other financial market participants don’t always know better than we do. And that also our loved and/or respected colleagues from BloombergTV and/or as well as on CNBC. Although you’ll get paid better than us for it. Granted; free! And that´s why I want to give you some statistical tables this week related to the BITCOIN Future Price action. So that no other financial market participant can tell you anything new about this! And what if he does? Then you know, my competent D2D Reader that he is either lying or (un)consciously (un)intentionally spreading fake news.

Therefore, on this Tuesday, on this Wednesday, and/or this Thursday, while this 15th calendar week 2023 (in which I will only write 3 D2D Edutions, after the Easter Christian weekend), there are historical statistical tables of the BITCOIN future price action in relation the development of the DOW JONES stock market, the USD index, and/or the 10-year US government bond.The Fundamental Question I Ask Myself – Which The Most BITCOIN Future Traders May Be Secretly Asks Theirself – Is:
What Are The Correlations Of The BITCOIN Price Action With USD Index Future, Since We Can Trade BITCOIN As A Future?

Remeber, on Monday the 2017/12/18 the BITCOIN Future was tradable for 20650 at 1st. In the following I`ve to formulated a detailed overview table in order to be well informed about the historical correlation of the BITCOIN Future price action! And that regardless of what others want to talk into you into, my loyal reader.

      BTC1!         DXY         DXY in points
                                  1st BTC1! Bear Market was from 2017/12/18 ($19100) until 2018/02/06 ($5970) : –                   68.74 % –                          4.95 % from 94.026 to 89.373 points
                                 1st BTC1! Bull Market was from 2018/02/06 ($5970) until 2018/02/20 ($11760) : +                    96.98 % +                          0.48 % from 89.373 to 89.802 points
                    2nd BTC1! Bear Market was from 2018/02/20 ($11760) until 2018/06/29 ($5755) : –                     51.06 % –                          5.20 % from 89.802 to 94.470 points
                            2nd BTC1! Bull Market was from 2018/06/29 ($5755) until 2018/07/25 ($8490) : +                   47.52 % +                          0.21 % from 94.470 to 94.665 points
                                 3rd BTC1! Bear Market was from 2018/07/25 ($8490) until 2018/12/14 ($3120) : –                    63.25 % +                             1.81 % from 94.665 to 96.377 points
                                 3rd BTC1! Bull Market was from 2018/12/14 ($3120) until 2021/04/21 ($65520) : + 2000.00 % –                   5.14 % from 96.377 to 91.428 points
            4th BTC1! Bear Market was from 2021/04/21 ($65520) until 2021/06/21 ($28800) : –                   56.04 % +                       0.44 % from 91.428 to 91.829 points
                          4th BTC1! Bull Market was from 2021/06/21 ($28800) until 2021/11/10 ($69335) : +            140.75 % +                        3.48 % from 91.829 to 94.903 points
                         5th BTC1! Bear Market was from 2021/11/10 ($69335) until 2022/11/09 ($14925) : –                   78.47 % +                        11.99 % from 94.903 to 106.281 points

So now we know the truth (the historical price development) about the previous price action in the BITCOIN future.
Because we can now state without justified statistical doubt that we have had 5 completed bear markets in the BITCOIN Future so far, and each of which was followed by 4 bull markets. I always defined a bear market from the new high price (during trend reversal); as well as a new bull market from a new historical low price (during trend reversal). So that we are currently in a 5th bull market in the BITCOIN future. And the interesting and/or also exciting, possibly also eye-opening, is that 2018/07/25, as the BITCOIN future completed his 2nd Bullmarket, there was no concurrent price action bull/bear markets in correlation of the BITCOIN future and/or USD Index future. You can see above: While the 3rd BITCOIN bearmarket the USD Index future was up. And/Or also like during the 3rd BIG MEGA bullmarket of the BITCOIN future the USD Index vecame cheaper. The same non concurrent price development action was also while the 4th and/or 5th bearmarket of the BITCOIN future; as the USD Index went up. Only in the summer of 2021, while the 4th BITCOIN bullmarket the USD Index followed concurrent also up. Which leads us to believe that USD traders, investors, and/ir speculators don’t care about the development of the BITCOIN futures. Let alone make their trading decisions (buying/selling or do nothing) dependent on the BITCOIN future!? Why should they?! In addition to the exchange rate, much more important for US dollar traders, investors and/or speculators, including foreigners those from abroad, is the development of the classic stock market in New York. And/Or rather the US Yield Curve in Chicago. BITCOIN, on the other hand, is only a national us phenomenon for non-Americans like me. Another key us technological industry in which everyone involved revolves around themselves. And project their demons into differently thinkers to make money. And/Or to write it in the words of Nourinel Roubini, who testified before the US Congress in October 2018: “Bitcoin is the ‘mother of all scams’ and blockchain is the most hyped tech ever, Roubini tells Congress”. With this in mind, I come to the following mathematical and/or semantic conclusion, my dear faithfully reader: „If you trade the USD Index future, then forget the BITCOIN future. And if you trade the BITCOIN future, then you don’t believe in the USD anymore, let alone the FED. Because that was the reason for its invention, during the low interest rate policy, after the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008!“ However, it`s your decission – and/or even only my opinion. And by the way, last but not least, the BITCOIN future is since the 2022/11/09 intraday bottom at $14925 in its 5th bullmarket. The USD Index on the other hand since 106.281 points, from the same day, in a bear market.

Basic Information About What Drives The USD Index Future, The US 10 Year Bond Yield, And/Or The DOW JONES Future

The international role of the US dollar (USD) is unrivalled. However, there is at times speculation that its role may be challenged. The reasons cited include China’s growing role in the global economy, developments in technology (eg cryptoassets) or geopolitical considerations. In short, I would like to free you from the scaremongering of many anti us americans and/or us american nationalists who are trying to demonize the Fed as the cause of the problems in the us  economy. So let me shirtly explain the international role of the USD, focusing mostly on its role in global financial markets.

The global FX market remains concentrated in a few currencies, with the USD dominating. The average turnover per day with the USD on one side of the transaction was $6.6 trillion – up 14% from $5.8 trillion in 2019 – in line with the change in total turnover. The USD was involved in nearly 90% of global FX transactions, making it the single most traded currency in the FX market. The dominance of the USD is evident across all FX instruments and counterparties. At least 85% of trading in the spot, forward and swap markets features the USD in one leg of the transactions. Other currencies lag well behind. The euro – the 2nd most traded currency – has a share of only 31%, down from its peak of 39% in 2010. A similar trend can be observed for the Japanese yen, while the British pound has maintained a largely constant share. The shift from these major currencies has been matched by a rise in the role of emerging market economy currencies such as the renminbi. The latter’s share in global FX turnover has increased from less than 1% 20 years ago to more than 7% now. That´s it!

That`s why the USD Index future was one of the most desirable currencies in 2022, since the prospect of rising interest rates encouraged many to buy USD again in the medium term, maybe even in the long term. Which is what we did with our long 4XSetUps in 2022. In contrast to this year 2023, where there are still the most interest rates from the leading currencies from our so-called West (i.e. USD compared to EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD as well as CHF and JPY), but the prospect of even higher interest rates are getting smaller. Because the FED did its job; done their homework. And it doesn’t matter what other colleagues say, write or behave; to make a profit at the historically wrong expense of others. That is why the US yield curve also became more expensive in 2022 and should more or less remain more expensive in 2023, in historical comparison. And that’s just as well. Because if you abolish interest, you shouldn’t be surprised that fantastic financial market assets like cryptocurrencies are invented. So a daily look at the USD as well as the 10-year US bond yield is always worthwhile. And also as a system opponent, cryptocurrency activist. Which I am distinctly not! But because many of my readers are more interested in BITCOIN than I could have imagined, there is now also a technical analysis 4XSetUps for the BITCOIN future.

Technical Analysis For This Week – Price Action Of The Past Few Days, From Today

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023.