2023/04/06 (207.070) Technical Analysis

Bulls/Bear Price Action Fight In The June`22 GAP Continues This Week
– That´s Why $28740 Needs To Be Recaptured And/Or $27365 Defended First

In today’s increasingly connected financial world, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) continue to arouse great interest among people – and my readers, too. And since I don’t think much of Bitcoin in principle, like Nourinel Roubini, I let myself be persuaded at the beginning of this year 2023 to formulate some technical analysis 4XSetUp trading capabilities for you. Which led to lively debates. And I’m always up for that, as long as we argue civilly with one another and/or against one another. So everyone stay healthy, peaceful, confident and free.

The groundbreaking digital currency, long touted as revolutionary, is now under scrutiny for its complex ties to traditional financial markets.
And if you ask me what I think of BITCOIN? Forget it! I only inform you about it because my readers expected it – and I want to help my brokers to get more transactions (and that even, inclusive too inform my readers to get more competent). And because you can also trade bitcoins (buy/sell or do nothing) thanks to all my CFD online brokers, with the help from CFDs, this week we will look at the BITCOIN price action daily, afain and again. And that more fundamentally, a little more in detail with a better iverview, to break some basic facts about the BITCOIN proce action down. And that`s why, all in all, in this week 14 of 2023, I would like to focus more closely on key factors that influence the correlation between Bitcoin and/or the stock market. In addition, I would like to disclose statistically to what extent BITCOIN has developed so far in its bull market and/or bear market in comparison to the other major assets.

Big 3 Driver For The BITCOIN Price Action Are Always – Like This 14th Week Of 2023 Too
– Institutional BTC Investments, The Daily Market Sentiment, And/Or Macroeconomic Factors Also

Institutional BTC investments
A big factor driving correlation is institutional investing. Large firms investing in both stocks and cryptocurrencies can inadvertently create an interrelationship between the two markets. When institutional investors buy or sell BTC, they follow the trends in the stock markets. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, companies like MicroStrategy or Tesla invested heavily in Bitcoin. As a result, the price of the asset rose in tandem with the recovery in the stock market.Market Sentiment
Furthermore, the mood on the markets (the market sentiment) plays an important role for the correlation. Investors who allow emotions such as fear or greed to be influenced often react similarly on different markets. For example, if stock prices collapse, the associated panic can also affect the BITCOIN price action. Conversely, the euphoria in a bull market can drive prices of both asset classes higher. An example of how market sentiment affects the prices of different assets is the crypto boom of 2017, which was fueled by retail investor euphoria. As Bitcoin price skyrocketed during this boom, so did the share prices of blockchain-related companies – the connection between the two markets then becoming apparent.

Macroeconomic Factors
Macroeconomic factors, such as key interest rates or inflation, influence both stock prices and the Bitcoin price. For example, rising inflation can encourage investors to reach for value-preserving assets. As a result, interest in both stocks and cryptocurrencies is increasing. In times of low interest rates, investors prefer the higher returns of riskier assets. Therefore, when interest rates are low, prices on the stock market and especially on the crypto market rise. Because safe securities no longer earn relatively high interest rates.

The Fundamental Question I Ask Myself – Which Everyone Secretly Asks – Is:
What Are The Correlations Of The BITCOIN Price Action With The Stick Markets, Since We Can Trade BITCOIN As A Future?

Remeber, on Monday the 2017/12/18 teh BITCOIN Future was tradable for 20650 at 1st. In the following I`ve to formulated a detailed overview table in order to be well informed about the historical correlation of the BITCOIN Future price action! And that regardless of what others want to talk into you into, my dear reader.

BTC1! YM1! YM1! in points
                                  1st BTC1! Bear Market was from 2017/12/18 ($19100) until 2018/02/06 ($5970) : – 68.74 % – 7.26 % from 24896 to 23088 points
                                 1st BTC1! Bull Market was from 2018/02/06 ($5970) until 2018/02/20 ($11760) : + 96.98 % + 9.76 % from 23088 to 25341 points
                    2nd BTC1! Bear Market was from 2018/02/20 ($11760) until 2018/06/29 ($5755) : – 51.06 % – 4.47 % from 25341 to 24207 points
                            2nd BTC1! Bull Market was from 2018/06/29 ($5755) until 2018/07/25 ($8490) : + 47.52 % + 5.14 % from 24207 to 25451 points
                                 3rd BTC1! Bear Market was from 2018/07/25 ($8490) until 2018/12/14 ($3120) : – 63.25 % – 14.81 % from 25451 to 21681 points
                                 3rd BTC1! Bull Market was from 2018/12/14 ($3120) until 2021/04/21 ($65520) : + 2000.00 % + 56.98 % from 21681 to 34034 points
            4th BTC1! Bear Market was from 2021/04/21 ($65520) until 2021/06/21 ($28800) : – 56.04 % – 3.33 % from 34034 to 32902 points
                          4th BTC1! Bull Market was from 2021/06/21 ($28800) until 2021/11/10 ($69335) : + 140.75 % + 9.61 % from 32902 to 36063 points
                         5th BTC1! Bear Market was from 2021/11/10 ($69335) until 2022/11/09 ($14925) : – 78.47 % – 9.92 % from 36063 to 32487 pointsSince the 2022/11/09 (intraday low $14925) the BTC1! is in it`s 5th Bull Market. Because the BITCOIN Future is since that date meanwhile +92.56% (last friday closed on 2023/03/31 at $28740). But the DOW JONES Future price action changed at the same time only +0.15% (from 33409 points on 2023/11/09 intraday low even until last friday closed on 2023/03/31 at 33460 points). However, the crucial point is the historical fact, since 2017, that the DOW JONES Future has always been traded in a bull and/or bear market, like the BITCOIN future. So that for us, for the current year 2023, the question arises: Will both remain in the positive surplus, as I expected, until the end of 2023? Or does this correlation dissolve? I do not think so, today! That’s why I have for both, even for the BTC1! as well as fir the YM1!, formulated a long 4XSetUp trading capability! Although I don’t want to guarantee any future price action development either; can not guarantee.

Regardless Of This Possible Open Eye New Important Information Chicago Is Groundbreaking For Both Futures
-I Mean The USD Index And/Or The US Yield Curve. So Let Us Get A Detail Overview About The Price Action, On This Thursday

DXY Recover Slightly
The US dollar rose past 102 on Thursday, recovering from a 2-month low hit earlier in the week as investors were digesting recent data. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended April 1 but data for the prior week was revised to show 48,000 more applications received than previously reported. On the other hand, data released earlier this week suggests the labor market is cooling and that the economy is starting to slow amid high borrowing costs raising expectations the Federal Reserve might halt the tightening cycle. Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said that job cuts at US-based employers totaled 89,703 in March, 319% more than a year earlier; and the ADP report showed private companies in the US added fewer jobs than expected in March.

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased To A 29-Week Low Of 3.2643%
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for a seventh straight session to 3.28% on Thursday, holding at low levels not seen since September last year, as worries over the health of the US economy mount. Both initial and continuing jobless claims came higher than expected at 228K and 1823K respectively, adding to other data released during the week including the ISM PMIs, ADP and the JOLTS report which showed tighter financial conditions are already hurting the US economy. Most investors now see the Fed leaving the fed funds rate steady next month, with less than 40% expecting a 25bps rate hike. Meanwhile, the yield on the two-year note declined for a fifth day to 3.74%, its longest streak since July 2022, and also the lowest rate since September. The NFP report due tomorrow should provide further clarity on the health of the labour market.

However, Let Me Write Some Few Basic Points; Even If I Feel Like A Trainer, Like A Teacher, Who Tries To Pass The Same Information
Over And Over Again On To My Beloved Players, Students, Yes My Readers, Even If Tou Don’t Listen Up To Me, Let Alone Implement My Thoughts
Knowing the past is very good; because they are (not only when it comes to the price action) immune from fellow human beings (un)consciously (un)wanted, against their will to be transformed. Because you know the truth (the Proce Action) – and don’t fool yourself or others. But a correlation in the past is no guarantee in the present that it will continue in the future. And this is where the rub is buried. And since we always trade the future on the financial market, in the present, with the past in our cloud of memories, it is important when trading the BITCOINS futures to always take the USD index and the US yield curve into account every day. Because the USD is the most traded currency worldwide – and the US bond market, in Chicago, the largest securities market in the world. And not Wall Street in enw York, as most implicitly assume.

A Few Last Words About The Latest Proce Action In The BITCOIN Future

The battle for the CAP, from June 2022 before the sell-off into November 2022, continues. Since 2023/03/20 we have been trading the BITCOIN Future between $27365 and/or $28740. It is important to leave this trading range behind for the time being – in order to then recapture the important psychological $30000 mark. Which is easier to write than to act. Be that as it may, we nevertheless remain long in the BITCOIN future – and that with a stop price. $32140 is the next big price action target for us BUTCOIN Bulls. And/Or $25350 for the BTC1! Bears.

The outlook for Bitcoin is currently very positive, which is also underlined by the technical picture – chart analysis.
The daily BITCOIN charts show that the most famous cryptocurrency has reclaimed and held its 200-day moving average and the short-term trend is picking up speed as well. More on that in the coming week – i don`t painted the SMA`s in (this wek). Based on this, the mode in Bitcoin can be classified as bullish in the short term, initially as long as Bitcoin can hold the 50 SMA, concretely and roughly speaking in numbers: as long as Bitcoin is trading above $25000. And that generally looks more than good. And that´s why we stay long in the BITCOIN Future – with a corresponding stop price.