2023/04/03 (204.067) Technical Analysis

Bulls/Bear Price Action Fight In The June`22 GAP Continues This Week
– That´s Why $28740 Needs To Be Recaptured And/Or $27365 Defended First

In today’s increasingly connected financial world, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) continue to arouse great interest among people – and my readers, too. And since I don’t think much of Bitcoin in principle, like Nourinel Roubini, I let myself be persuaded at the beginning of this year 2023 to formulate some technical analysis 4XSetUp trading capabilities for you. Which led to lively debates. And I’m always up for that, as long as we argue civilly with one another and/or against one another. So everyone stay healthy, peaceful, confident and free.

The groundbreaking digital currency, long touted as revolutionary, is now under scrutiny for its complex ties to traditional financial markets.
And if you ask me what I think of BITCOIN? Forget it! I only inform you about it because my readers expected it – and I want to help my brokers to get more transactions (and that even, inclusive too inform my readers to get more competent). And because you can also trade bitcoins (buy/sell or do nothing) thanks to all my CFD online brokers, with the help from CFDs, this week we will look at the BITCOIN price action daily, afain and again. And that more fundamentally, a little more in detail with a better iverview, to break some basic facts about the BITCOIN proce action down. And that`s why, all in all, in this week 14 of 2023, I would like to focus more closely on key factors that influence the correlation between Bitcoin and/or the stock market. In addition, I would like to disclose statistically to what extent BITCOIN has developed so far in its bull market and/or bear market in comparison to the other major assets.

Big 3 Driver For The BITCOIN Price Action Are Always – Like This 14th Week Of 2023 Too
– Institutional BTC Investments, The Daily Market Sentiment, And/Or Macroeconomic Factors Also

Institutional BTC investments
A big factor driving correlation is institutional investing. Large firms investing in both stocks and cryptocurrencies can inadvertently create an interrelationship between the two markets. When institutional investors buy or sell BTC, they follow the trends in the stock markets. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, companies like MicroStrategy or Tesla invested heavily in Bitcoin. As a result, the price of the asset rose in tandem with the recovery in the stock market.Market Sentiment
Furthermore, the mood on the markets (the market sentiment) plays an important role for the correlation. Investors who allow emotions such as fear or greed to be influenced often react similarly on different markets. For example, if stock prices collapse, the associated panic can also affect the BITCOIN price action. Conversely, the euphoria in a bull market can drive prices of both asset classes higher. An example of how market sentiment affects the prices of different assets is the crypto boom of 2017, which was fueled by retail investor euphoria. As Bitcoin price skyrocketed during this boom, so did the share prices of blockchain-related companies – the connection between the two markets then becoming apparent.

Macroeconomic Factors
Macroeconomic factors, such as key interest rates or inflation, influence both stock prices and the Bitcoin price. For example, rising inflation can encourage investors to reach for value-preserving assets. As a result, interest in both stocks and cryptocurrencies is increasing. In times of low interest rates, investors prefer the higher returns of riskier assets. Therefore, when interest rates are low, prices on the stock market and especially on the crypto market rise. Because safe securities no longer earn relatively high interest rates.

The Fundamental Question I Ask Myself – Which Everyone Secretly Asks – Is:
What Are The Correlations Of The BITCOIN Price Action With The Stick Markets, Since We Can Trade BITCOIN As A Future?

Remeber, on Monday the 2017/12/18 teh BITCOIN Future was tradable for 20650 at 1st. In the following I`ve to formulated a detailed overview table in order to be well informed about the historical correlation of the BITCOIN Future price action! And that regardless of what others want to talk into you into, my dear reader.

BTC1! YM1! YM1! in points
                                  1st BTC1! Bear Market was from 2017/12/18 ($19100) until 2018/02/06 ($5970) : – 68.74 % – 7.26 % from 24896 to 23088 points
                                 1st BTC1! Bull Market was from 2018/02/06 ($5970) until 2018/02/20 ($11760) : + 96.98 % + 9.76 % from 23088 to 25341 points
                    2nd BTC1! Bear Market was from 2018/02/20 ($11760) until 2018/06/29 ($5755) : – 51.06 % – 4.47 % from 25341 to 24207 points
                            2nd BTC1! Bull Market was from 2018/06/29 ($5755) until 2018/07/25 ($8490) : + 47.52 % + 5.14 % from 24207 to 25451 points
                                 3rd BTC1! Bear Market was from 2018/07/25 ($8490) until 2018/12/14 ($3120) : – 63.25 % – 14.81 % from 25451 to 21681 points
                                 3rd BTC1! Bull Market was from 2018/12/14 ($3120) until 2021/04/21 ($65520) : + 2000.00 % + 56.98 % from 21681 to 34034 points
            4th BTC1! Bear Market was from 2021/04/21 ($65520) until 2021/06/21 ($28800) : – 56.04 % – 3.33 % from 34034 to 32902 points
                          4th BTC1! Bull Market was from 2021/06/21 ($28800) until 2021/11/10 ($69335) : + 140.75 % + 9.61 % from 32902 to 36063 points
                         5th BTC1! Bear Market was from 2021/11/10 ($69335) until 2022/11/09 ($14925) : – 78.47 % – 9.92 % from 36063 to 32487 pointsSince the 2022/11/09 (intraday low $14925) the BTC1! is in it`s 5th Bull Market. Because the BITCOIN Future is since that date meanwhile +92.56% (last friday closed on 2023/03/31 at $28740). But the DOW JONES Future price action changed at the same time only +0.15% (from 33409 points on 2023/11/09 intraday low even until last friday closed on 2023/03/31 at 33460 points). However, the crucial point is the historical fact, since 2017, that the DOW JONES Future has always been traded in a bull and/or bear market, like the BITCOIN future. So that for us, for the current year 2023, the question arises: Will both remain in the positive surplus, as I expected, until the end of 2023? Or does this correlation dissolve? I do not think so, today! That’s why I have for both, even for the BTC1! as well as fir the YM1!, formulated a long 4XSetUp trading capability! Although I don’t want to guarantee any future price action development either; can not guarantee.

Regardless Of This Possible Open Eye New Important Information Chicago Is Groundbreaking For Both Futures
-I Mean The USD Index And/Or The US Yield Curve. So Let Us Get A Detail Overview About The Price Action, On This Monday

Dollar Gains On Inflationary Concerns
The dollar index climbed to around 103 on Monday, rising for the second straight session after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing further production cuts, reigniting fears that the Federal Reserve may need to keep raising interest rates to keep inflation under control. Meanwhile, data released on Friday showed that US core PCE price growth, the Fed’s preferred gauge to measure inflation, slowed more than expected to 4.6% in February, the lowest in 15 months. US consumer spending also rose moderately in February after surfing in the previous month. Markets are now pricing an over 50% chance that the central bank will deliver a quarter-point rate hike in May, while expecting rate cuts by the end of the year. Investors now look ahead to a number of US economic releases this week such as jobs openings data on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday and the monthly jobs report on Friday.

US Bond Yields Edge Higher
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, edged higher to 3.5% on Monday, after a surprise cut in oil production by OPEC+ raised concerns of further inflationary pressures and the need of more monetary tightening. Money markets now see a 65% probability of a 25bps rate hike in the fed funds rate next month, compared to 55% earlier. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year note rose to 4.07%. The 10-year yield ended the first quarter of 2023 down roughly 30bps, as instability in the US financial sector drove investors to pile onto the safety of government debt. Hampered confidence in the sector and the banks’ vulnerability to higher borrowing costs forced the Fed to hold its terminal rate projections despite upward revisions to inflation and downward revisions to unemployment forecasts.

However, Let Me Write Some Few Basic Points; Even If I Feel Like A Trainer, Like A Teacher, Who Tries To Pass The Same Information
Over And Over Again On To My Beloved Players, Students, Yes My Readers, Even If Tou Don’t Listen Up To Me, Let Alone Implement My Thoughts
Knowing the past is very good; because they are (not only when it comes to the price action) immune from fellow human beings (un)consciously (un)wanted,against their will to be transformed. Because you know the truth (the Proce Action) – and don’t fool yourself or others. But a correlation in the past is no guarantee in the present that it will continue in the future. And this is where the rub is buried. And since we always trade the future on the financial market, in the present, with the past in our cloud of memories, it is important when trading the BITCOINS futures to always take the USD index and the US yield curve into account every day. Because the USD is the most traded currency worldwide – and the US bond market, in Chicago, the largest securities market in the world. And not Wall Street in enw York, as most implicitly assume.

A Few last Words About The Latest Proce Action In The BITCOIN Future

The fear among financial market participants appears to be that a flagging consumer could mean less risk appetite and fewer potentially interested buyers of speculative assets. And that hits the NASDAQ 100 and the BITCOIN Future twice. While the DOW JONES Industrial Average Index gets bored – and like a hedgehog next to the hare, it rises and rises, grows and grows. But admittedly not as high and low as the NASDAQ 100, let alone the BITCOIN Future. So nothing new in the west – on the price action front.

The battle for the CAP, from June 2022 before the sell-off into November 2022, continues. Since 2023/03/20 we have been trading the BITCOIN Future between $27365 and/or $28740. It is important to leave this trading range behind for the time being – in order to then recapture the important psychological $30000 mark. Which is easier to write than to act. Be that as it may, we nevertheless remain long in the BITCOIN future – and that with a stop price. $32140 is the next big price action target for us BUTCOIN Bulls. And/Or $25350 for the BTC1! Bears.