2023/03/30 (202.065) Technical Analysis – … & BSE-SENSEX

The BSE:SENSEX Is Still Under Pressure This Year 2023
– Nevertheles, We Dare A Long 4XSetUp In The Indian Stock Market



Basic Infos For This Week – About The Currently Financial Market Proce Action – And/Or Our New (Old) 4XSetUps

“Things have been getting out of hand since the financial crisis at the latest, and now we are getting the acknowledgment: first interest rates were abolished and the Fed in particular printed massive amounts of money to combat the alleged deflation, then Corona and the Ukraine war showed the problems in the system up with the sharp increase in inflation. The Fed and Co reacted to this much too late, but then violently with a rapid rise in interest rates. This in turn is also not without consequences: the bonds in the banks’ custody accounts are losing value, at the same time the rise in interest rates with the money market created strong competition for banks, which triggered the banking crisis in the USA through outflows of funds. Now criticism of the Fed is growing in the USA – above all, we now have a Fed crisis! What to do?”, Markus Fugmann (co-founder of the information website finanzmarktwelt.de) asked himself last Friday, March 24, 2023 in one of his two german-language Video analyses, which he presents daily. I enjoy listening to his analyzes – and not just because we usually come to the same conclusion more often than we would like when we look in the rear-view mirror. But looking ahead – so what to do? – that’s where we differ, like most financial market participants, of course. Nevertheless, regardless of his future prospects, I would like to go back again this week in terms of the number of 4XSetUps – and draw from the full! Because I don’t think we will experience a financial market crisis in 2023 like we did in 2008! Also not like during the Corona virus outbreak! But I fear we will be dealing with stagflation in our west for longer than we would like! And an interest rate cut in the USA for this year 2023 is out of the question. Which is what FED Chair Man Powel sees, if I haven’t misremembered his statements. Even though many in Chicago are already speculating that the FED will cut interest rates again in 2023! I personally don’t think so! I would like to make that very clear at this point, this week! Possibly another rate hike in May 2023!? And then that was probably it?! That`s why I pay more attention to the current daily US Yield Curve than the US CME FedWatch Tool.

However, I think the FED did its job!
And 14 to 15 years after the fall of the Lehman Brothers Bank in 2008, it was publicly formulated in such a way that everyone involved now knows it!
Even US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen once again expressed her calm about the banking situation. In her fourth speech this week, she assured on Thursday that the banking system is sound. The US bank regulator and the Treasury Department are ready to take on comprehensive deposit insurance for other banks, as they did with the failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. “These are tools that we could reintroduce to an institution of any size if we concluded that its failure would pose a risk of contagion,” she said at a hearing of the U.S. House Budget Subcommittee.

Meanwhile, the difference between current US inflation and the current US interest rate is the lowest it has been since US stagflation broke out in July 2021, and/or since Biden is in the White House. Because I`m too of the opinion that the FED is not the problem but rather the solution! Rather, it is the disastrous left-wing green policy of the Christian Democrat Joe Biden, who counteracts the economic policy of his predecessor Trump almost with biblical Cainic wrath! And what does Trump do? He still doesn’t want to and/or can’t admit his defeat from 2020 in public – and argues, with the help of his followers (to which I still count myself up to a certain point) ad absurdum! However, the upcoming US presidential election will be even more politically exciting and the price action even more volatile than we can imagine today?! Nevertheless, regardless of that, I assume, as I have already written to many columns, that we will experience US growth of -1% to +1%. and that for better or worse in 2023 and 2024. I feel like Nourinel Roubini, who wrote on October 3, 2020: “For a year now I have been arguing that the rise in inflation will be permanent, that its causes include not only misguided policies but also supply-side shocks and that central bank attempts to fight inflation will provoke an economic hard landing. When the recession comes, I warned, it will be severe, protracted, and marked by widespread financial distress and debt crises. Despite their hawkish pronouncements, the in Central bankers caught in a debt trap would still “pinch” and accept above-target inflation. Any portfolio composed of risky stocks and less-risky fixed income would lose money on the bonds due to higher inflation and increased inflation expectations.” And that´s why I decided this 13th calendar week of `23 even these 4XSetUps, as I have decided! Why? Read further this and/or all next Technical Analysis 4XSetUps…

All New (Old) 4XSetUps This Week Are Based On The Assumption
That The USD Index (DXY) Will Get Cheaper In Line With The US Yield Curve,
So That US Stocks (In Contrast To 2022) Could Be More Attractive Back Again.
And That´s Why We Should Get An Brief Overview Of DXY, Yields And/Or WallStreet

US GDP Growth Revised Slightly Down, May Be That`s Why DXY Still Under Renewed Pressure And/Or US Stocks Close Higher For 2nd Session

The American economy expanded an annualized 2.6% on quarter in the last three months of 2022, slightly less than initial estimates of a 2.7% rise. Consumer spending rose 1%, below 1.4% in the second estimate, as spending on services advanced much less than initially estimated (1.6% vs 2.4%). Also, spending on goods went down 0.1%, compared to initial estimates of a 0.5% decline, with jewelry leading the drop. Also, the contribution from net trade was revised lower (0.42 pp vs 0.46 pp), with both exports (-3.7% vs -1.6%) and imports (-5.5% vs -4.2%) falling more. Meanwhile, private inventories added 1.47 to the growth, in line with the second estimate, led by petroleum, coal products and utilities. Fixed investment declined less (-3.8% vs -4.6%), due to equipment (-3.5% vs -3.2%) while intellectual property products increased (6.2% vs 7.4%). Residential investment continued to contract although at a slightly smaller pace (-25.1% vs -25.9%). Considering full 2022, the GDP expanded 2.1%.

The dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, depreciating toward the 102 mark as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy. The financial turmoil, which started earlier in March with the collapse of two regional banks, has prompted investors to reprice expectations of future monetary tightening by the US central bank. Money markets are now pricing a pause in interest rate hikes in May, with rate cuts expected soon after that. All eyes now turn to a critical measure of US inflation and several speeches from Fed officials this week. The most pronounced selling activity was against the euro and the British pound.

The Dow Jones finished more than 140 points higher on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 added 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, as investors shifted their focus back to the Federal Reserve’s policy path amid easing concerns about a banking crisis. Federal Reserve officials reiterated their resolve to lower inflation, suggesting more monetary tightening was needed even after financial turmoil, which started earlier in March with the collapse of two regional banks. On the data front, US applications for jobless benefits rose last week. However, they remained at historically low levels, pointing to a still-tight labor market despite efforts from the Fed to cool the economy. Meanwhile, several Fed speeches and economic releases this week, including the core PCI price index due on Friday, will offer insight into the likely future path of interest rate rises.

Let Me Give You Some Basic Background Information About My 4XSetUps At This Point

George Soros is considered one of the most successful stock market speculators of all time. He is one of my literary role models, my super-egos, my egos, if you will – because I love to put myself in his shoes of thinking about his own written theory of reflection – and then, based on this, to draw my own mathematical and/or semantic conclusions. Next to Andre Kostolany, he shaped me the most in terms of my perception of the financial market. One of my two grandfathers, if you will – with a wink, of course. Because George Soros quotes do not deal with small-small, because Soros is a critical thinker who thinks in terms of global economic policy and aligns all his investments with it. The following three quotes can serve as evidence for this way of thinking.

“Before sunrise comes darkness.”
“China is reluctant to take responsibility for the world, Germany is reluctant to take responsibility for Europe.”
“Because of its history, Germany fears inflation more than recession. In the rest of the world it is exactly the opposite.”

George Soros’ quotes are perhaps partly to blame for the fact that he is dividing opinions in both Hungary and the USA like hardly any other major investor. For the nationalists, he is considered a socialist traitor to the fatherland. And/Or also for the socialists as cunning capitalists. Which is why, as his grandson in spirit (if you will), I keep defending him as an international Federal Republican – even if I don’t always agree with him on many different detail political points. And as a Federal Republican, he feels surely like me real good about the fact that he is repeatedly attacked mainly by politically left-wing socialists and/or right-wing nationalists. Just a testament to the fact that he is basically an enlightened international Hungarian American Jewish Federal Republican; just like my humble self, even an enlightened international German Croatian Catholic Federal Republican.

Let Me Detail Ot Clearly And/Or Break It Down To The Point

The Indian S&P BSE SENSEX is moving in a downward trend channel in the medium term. This signals growing investor pessimism about India’s leading stock market, with tentative signs of further decline. It is important that the lower 57367.47 points hold up. So that the turnaround between 59199.11 & 58172.48 points can be recaptured by the bulls in the short term. The first goal is to overcome the 59599.78 points. Which should result in medium-term bullish prospects.

By the way, the Indian stock market was closed today due to a public holiday (Rama Navami).
Because many celebrated the Hindu festival celebrating the birth of Lord Ram, the seventh avatar of deity Vishnu, to King Dasharatha and Queen Kausalya in Ayodhya, Kosala. Vaishnava Hindus celebrate the festival by visiting temples, praying, fasting, listening to spiritual discourses and singing bhajans or kirtans. The festival observes the victory of good over evil and dharma over adharma. The Rama Navami festival celebrations begin with Jalam (water) offered to Surya (the sun god) in the early morning to appease him. This is due to the belief that Surya’s descendants were the ancestors of Rama.