2023/03/06 (184.047) Technical Analysis

Small Gains Ahead Of Fed Chair Powell’s Appearance
– We Start Today With A New Short 4XSetUp In The NASDAQ 100

As Dollar Muted Ahead of Busy Calendar Week
And/or US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hovers Around 3.9%

The dollar index was subdued around 104.4 on Monday as investors cautiously awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday for further guidance on the central bank’s tightening plans. Investors also looked ahead to the February jobs report on Friday that could influence how aggressive the Fed will need to be in the upcoming meetings. Markets are expecting the central bank to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points at its March meeting in light of stronger-than-expected US economic data, though analysts remain divided on what the likely peak for rates could be. In the latest Fed commentary, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said US rates need to stay higher for longer amid concerns about recent hotter-than-expected inflation data and worries about global economic trends that could fuel price pressures.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, bottomed around 3.9%, moving away from an almost four-month peak of 4% touched last week, with investors reassessing the economic outlook. Market participants are waiting to see if this week’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate and House committees reflects recent hawkish rhetoric from other Fed policymakers. The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will also provide a clearer picture of the labor market while giving further insight into the direction of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate rises. Money markets have now priced at least three more 25 basis point rate hikes this year and see interest rates peaking at around 5.5% by June.

Small gains ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s appearance

As Powell speaks to the Banking Committee, market players should be alert to any nuances in monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve, wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid. Because two economic highlights are due on Friday with the labor market report for February and in the coming week with consumer prices, Powell is unlikely to be overly optimistic.

At the top of the Dow, Merck & Co’s shares rose by four percent. The pharmaceutical company had presented positive study data on the drug Sotatercept for the treatment of patients with a certain form of elevated blood pressure. Apple shares rose nearly 2 percent. With Goldman Sachs, a renowned investment bank is now becoming optimistic after years of standing on the sidelines with the papers. The expert responsible from now on, Michael Ng, emphasized that the technology group has a high level of brand loyalty and a broad user base thanks to its success in the development of premium devices. The share certificates of the house builders D.R. Horton and KB Home fell one and a half percent and two percent respectively, suffering from skeptical comments from bank JPMorgan. Analyst Michael Rehaut argued that in view of the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates, house demand is likely to cool down. Spirit Airlines shares fell almost nine percent. The Bloomberg news agency, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that the Justice Department could file an antitrust lawsuit against the Jetblue acquisition as early as Tuesday. The shares of this river company gained one percent.

The renowned economist Nouriel Roubini,
known as “Dr. Doom,” has warned that the world is facing
a looming “stagflationary debt crisis” that will be “the worst of all worlds for workers”!

To which I agree as an employee; and/or that`s why I call the us stagflation, as yoi`re know as my loyal reader, a green democratically organized US Biden inflation, under the cloak of democracy, that is eating its way like a cancer into the wallets of all US taxpayers and consumers, namely US Americans.

“Now we’re facing the perfect storm – inflation, recession, stagflation and a potential debt crisis,” he warned.
“The debt ratio in advanced economies was only 100 per cent of GDP [in the 1970s]; today it is 420 per cent of GDP, in private and public debt. “So, in this case, if we have those shocks to say oil prices, not only do you get inflation, not only do you get recession and stagflation, but you get what I call a great stagflationary debt crisis, because with interest rates so high, then that [debt] ratio has become unsustainable.” In Australia, the RBA and the Federal Government expect inflation to have peaked at the end of 2022 and for it to gradually moderate over this year and the next. But Dr Roubini believes the worst is yet to come, noting Goldman Sachs predicts commodity prices could soar 43 per cent this year. He believes the US Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep raising rates until their economies fall into recession, leading to a “real hard landing”. Financial markets will crash, borrowing costs will rise, defaults by households and businesses will rise and some financial institutions may go under – and ultimately working people will be hit the hardest. “Stagflation is the worst, because loss of jobs, unemployment, weakness of the labour market and wages are growing less than inflation, because you have stagflation,” Dr Roubini said.

Speaking with ABC’s The Business on Thursday, Dr Roubini said the “perfect storm” of high inflation and rising interest rates could trigger a cascade of recession and debt defaults this year. “Stagflation” is a term for a rare economic phenomenon, first coined in the 1970s, which occurs when prices rise even as the economy shrinks. In Australia, inflation rose to 7.4 per cent in the year to January, with the Reserve Bank raising rates again in February for the ninth consecutive month to 3.35 per cent. The economy grew at a weaker-than-expected 0.5 per cent in the December quarter for an annual rate of 2.7 per cent, and wages data this week showed real household disposable income virtually unchanged from 2012. “I do believe that this stagflation rate crisis is going to emerge this year,” Dr Roubini told The Business.

Outlook for US Wall Street?
The US labor market report should not dispel interest rate concerns!

Despite persistently high inflation and therefore increasing concerns about interest rates, the Dax has recently shown itself to be robust. However, the inflationary pressure in the euro zone remains in the back of investors’ minds and, along with many company figures, is likely to shape the new week. Investors are eagerly awaiting the US labor market report on Friday, which is important for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.

Technical Analyis 4XSetUp for this week…

Due to the current difficult economic situation in the USA, the currently self-organized US stagflation, the US democrats, under the watch of Sleepy Joe Biden, this “red hangman” not only fits into the technical picture of today. Because the US government is in debt as never before; and the Silicon Valley has never been so expensive, and retrospectively so incompetent; that I too am slowly losing faith in further higher prices, especially on the Nasdaq 100. Not that we misunderstand each other. Of course there are fute services and/or products from Sillicom Valley. No problem. But stocks of listed companies, at current prices, to buy again this week in such an economic environment? And such high interest rates? No thank you! At least not me! Therefore, it is better to put 12-month-long securities in the trading account at the house bank with a secure interest rate of around 5%. And that with 90% of your total portfolio value, so that in 12 months you will have at least 95% more or less of today’s portfolio value! That’s it!

Yes, that`s it – for the next 12 monats, at least! My response to the current US stagflation in the US. And the consequence, on US inflation. Which in turn was and is only the economic policy consequence of the green policy of Sleepy Joe Biden. Who, like Cain and his predecessor Trump, takes revenge – and makes the US taxpayers and also US consumers, US Americans, pay for it in the truest sense of the word! The ego of the two is not to be underestimated; as well as the pride of the Americans! That’s why I’m short again on the NASDAQ 100 Index! And please don’t take that the wrong way. Because there is nothing evil, let alone demonic going short; Not even on the Nasdaq 100. Because most services and products make sense when it comes to a financially rich life! But I don’t want to fool you! Most products and services are just too expensive. And that the US Americans will also want to do without services and products in the future and will still feel good, not even friends of the USA like me believe in that. Which is why the prices have to come down in the USA. Or else Joe Biden will disappear from the White House! Because more and more Americans, as well as non-Americans, especially Trump haters, and not MAGA members, are realizing that the policies of Donald Trump, the USA, brought 3 years of health, peace, security and freedom to the world had. In contrast to Joe Biden’s politics, who, like Cain, tried to keep Abel small. But we already had that; I don’t want to repeat myself at this point regarding.

On monday the NDX traded a so called “red Hangman”; which usually is often a part a trend-reversal-formation.
This 4 set-up aims to break the December 2022 high in the next two weeks, i.e. this week and/or next week (when we get US inflation data). So that in the medium term we can then retrospectively assume a short-term false break-out in February 2022 in the NDX. And in the short term we can then assume that we will be trading new lows again in the medium term. And maybe even much deeper than 2022. But that is medium-term vision of the future. First of all we need courses below 11700 points. And a US inflation report that gives no reason for hope in the short term. Because green US inflation, under the guise of a liberal democracy, is still much high in the US. And the stock market, like me until a few days and weeks ago, just the last US inflation figures, still assumed that the worst of US stagflation was something we had already experienced together.

However, WallStreet extends gains.
The Dow added 100 points in early deals on Monday as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy ahead of a busy week of economic data and speeches from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 outperformed by adding roughly 0.6% and 1%, respectively, as easing Treasury yields brought some respite to beaten-down technology and other high-growth stocks. All eyes are on this week’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate and House committees after recent hot economic data fueled bets for more interest rate hikes this year. The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will also provide a clearer picture of the labor market while giving further insight into the direction of the Federal Reserve’s rate path. On the corporate side, Apple climbed more than 2% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the iPhone maker with a “buy” rating.