2023/02/13 (169.032) Technical Analysis

I Let Myself Be Persuaded By My D2D Readers
– I Formulated A Long Technical Analysis 4XSetUp For BITCOIN

Regulatory Panic!
BTC falls below $23k – more losses imminent?

The SEC crackdown on cryptocurrency staking shocked the industry as Bitcoin fell below $22,000 and sparked debate about the future of digital currencies. Bitcoin is down more than $1000 as over $70 billion was taken off the market in less than 24 hours.

Bitcoin long technical analysis 4XSetUp: Is “Buy the dip” a Good Idea Now?
I don’t know it! But I give in to the demands of many readers to finally formulate a 4XSetUp on Bitcoin…

There has been a significant correction in the digital currency market over the past 48 hours, making it the weakest trading day of the year to date. After a stellar January with gains of over 30% for Bitcoin or Ethereum, investors are now turning back to bearish price targets. The reason: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prohibits the “staking-as-a-service” business of the renowned crypto exchange Kraken. It refers to a violation of applicable US securities laws. The comparison between Kraken and the SEC is causing resentment in the market. Once again, there is a lack of clear guidelines for the digital currency market and rather individual crypto services are being banned as a kind of precedent. Speculation is mounting that the SEC may also want to ban staking in the US. While the US judiciary was still ridiculed in its announced strike against crypto crimes and the subsequent ban on the unknown CEX Bitzlato, the supervisory authorities are now pursuing their request. After a noticeable recovery at the beginning of the year, the market reacted in a state of shock, which is reflected in a price correction of over 4% for Bitcoin in the last 24 hours. BTC trades below $22,000 again. What’s next? Bitcoin course forecast:

Buy-the-dip after intraday flash crash?
One possible response to the flash crash triggered by the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision would be a buy-the-dip strategy. The current consolidation seems fundamentally nothing unusual after explosive gains in January. As a result, well-known crypto influencer Michael van de Poppe advises a buy-the-dip strategy to take advantage of the discounted price to increase exposure to cryptos.BTC down 4%, trading volume over $30 billion
In the last 96 hours, the Bitcoin price has fallen by 4%. This results in losses of over 7% for the past week. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has traded between $21,696 and $22,787. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the trading volume topped $30 billion, which is equivalent to an increase of around 7%. Since the overall market corrected even more significantly and PoS cryptos in particular were hit, Bitcoin was even able to slightly expand its market dominance to 41.43%. The global crypto market cap is hovering just slightly above $1 trillion. The downward pressure has now eased significantly. It should now be important that the price level initially holds around $21,700. On the short-term hourly chart, the RSI indicates an oversold condition. A countermovement is possible.

Staking ban in the US? Bitcoin largely immune as a PoW cryptocurrency
Rumors of a ban on retail staking in the US and first moves by the SEC are fueling fears of harsh, anti-crypto regulation that will hamper innovation and make investing in the digital currency market less profitable in the world’s most important capital market. Nevertheless, a typical pattern of flash crashes can be seen here. Because cryptocurrencies are sold on a large scale, although Bitcoin, as a cryptocurrency that has been based on the Proof-of-Work consensus protocol for the longest time, should actually be immune to such steps. Even hard-headed crypto skeptics do not demand that BTC be classified as a security with the resulting supervision by the SEC. Nevertheless, investors are becoming more cautious again. The Bitcoin trend indicator “Fear & Greed Index” returned to neutral territory with a value of 48. However, there is no panic even after the SEC decision.

Macro-economy with risks: But the Bitcoin course is again decoupled from inflation & Co.
Furthermore, the influence of macroeconomic factors must not be neglected, although we are currently seeing a renewed decoupling of the Bitcoin price from inflation and economic data. Investors are primarily turning back to the crypto-immanent opportunities and risks. Nevertheless, the Fed’s monetary policy will continue to play an important role, as a full-scale bull run is likely to require loose monetary policy. Because then massive liquidity will be available again to support rising prices.

Bear Market or Correction?
Finally, one can refer to another tweet by Michael van de Poppe. This is exactly what decides whether a buy-the-dip strategy is worthwhile in the short term. Are we still in the bear market or is it just the first significant corrective move in the new bull market? As of now, both seem possible. Over the long term, the odds are good that, based on historical evidence, a buy-the-dip will yield above-average returns. Because the Bitcoin price should be significantly higher in the next bull run, also driven by the halving in 2024. But if you are looking for safe, market-beating returns in the short term, you will of course find them in the Yield Curve. Because this 4XSetUp Technical ANAlysis is only an high spculative one. And i wrote it only because many of my readers want to read my opinion of Bitcoin. Basically i`m not a fan and/or supporter of Bitcoin. Because of me, the legislators can ban the trade of oz! Wouldn`t have a problem with that.This 4XSetUp is based on a purely technical analysis!
Because I’m one of the critics of Bitcoin – and can’t do anything with cryptocurrencies!
But since I’ve had at least one request for a technical analysis 4XSetUp every week since I’ve been publishing D2D, I’m giving in now…

I think about bitcoin, but also about cryptocurrencies, basically more or less like Roubini. Nouriel Roubini is known for his gloomy forecasts. The economist rose to prominence in the mid-2000s for accurately predicting the collapse of the housing market and the global financial crisis that followed. Since then he has been a vocal critic of the crypto industry. On May 10, “Dr. Doom” at the Finance Forward Conference in Hamburg. He’s a pessimist. He’s controversial. But Nouriel Roubini is often right. In a discussion with Arthur Hayes, the founder of what was then the second largest crypto derivatives exchange, Bitmex, the economist caused an uproar. “The guy is a total idiot who doesn’t know how to debate; he was pathetic and rehashing old, stale arguments that don’t make any sense,” he later said of his opponent. And: “It was embarrassing to see him talk. He’s a totally arrogant idiot.” He had already dismantled Hayes on stage. Its trading platform benefits from driving people into financial ruin. Bitmex, registered in Seychelles, failed to follow rules to protect investors or prevent money laundering. “You are an example of everything that is sick and broken in this industry,” said Roubini at the time. Shortly after the discussion, prosecutors for the Southern District of New York filed charges of failing to conduct anti-money laundering processes against Hayes (Finance Forward reported). He was later sentenced to two years probation and six months house arrest. As in 2006 with his real estate forecast, Roubini should be right.

Who is the man who will be speaking at the Finance Forward conference on May 10th?

In 2006, Nouriel Roubini warned of a “70 percent chance of a recession in the US,” largely due to a collapse in the real estate market. At that time he was initially dismissed as a crank. But it came as he had predicted, and since then his predictions have garnered much attention around the world. The professor, who teaches at New York University, repeatedly warns of major crises – not every one of which has actually occurred. His latest book is called Megathreats, fitting his trademark as Dr. doom”. In it he writes about ten crises that “will upset our lives and the world order in a way none of us have ever experienced”.
In Portraits, Nouriel Roubini is described as a sullen pessimist who sees only disasters everywhere. He doesn’t hold back, says what he thinks. In recent years, his criticism of the crypto world has become louder and louder. In 2018 he called Bitcoin “mother of fraud”, the cryptocurrency is completely overrated. In a hearing before the US Senate, he spoke of “Shitcoin” – and that was flattered. It’s an insult to “shit,” which is very valuable as a fertilizer compared to the currency. Speaking at Abu Dhabi Finance Week a few weeks ago, Roubini collated the “seven Cs of crypto”: Concealed, corrupt, crooks, criminals, con men, carnival barkers. scammers and barkers”. That’s six. Seventh, he named Binance boss CZ, who had previously spoken at the same conference.

On the way to a new record high?
No! But the tech picture doesn’t look bad as long as…Crypto Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin will explode by over 70% ahead of a “very fast black swan”

Amsterdam-based popular cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could trade in a range for a while before recovering to a price as high as $40,000. “I think the winning price will start at $29,000 and will most likely be between $37,000 and $40,000… Now we have the sideways phase that may last a couple of weeks before you can start running again, that run will be towards $37,000 to $40,000 most likely in Q2, maybe Q3” Van de Poppe said in a recent YouTube presentation. He says that the $37,000-$40,000 price level is where most investors and traders with open positions in Bitcoin are likely to close their positions. In a tweet, he showed a chart saying Bitcoin is still consolidating around the area of interest. According to the crypto analyst, there will be a sharp trend reversal before the bull cycle begins in earnest. “If we get to $40K, we’re likely to have a very fast black swan type event that falls back towards $18K and then we’ll continue the rally,” Van de Poppe said. He said that bitcoin price appears to be showing solid sideways movement in the second half of 2022 and so far in 2023 corrections are being bought up quite quickly and people are eager to get back into the market. In early January, Van de Poppe predicted that if Bitcoin fails to find buying support above a key price level, it would crash. “We are likely to see new lows unless markets jump above $16,700. And if you look at altcoins, it clearly shows the same view,” he said.

Bitcoin week down 7% but optimism remains

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading back below $22,000, down 7% over the past seven days. If Van de Poppe’s goal of $37,000 is met, that would be an increase of over 70%. How will Bitcoin develop now? Is an entry worthwhile or should investors rather sell? The answers to these questions and why I have now formulated a long 4XSetUp i will write every week; as Butcoin is still trading above 20000…