2023/02/07 (165.028) Technical Analysis

TESLA Share Already Went Very Well, Very Very Well
– So A Fall Down Of Up To 165 Is Bearable, Next Days And/Or Weeks

Tesla shareholders have failed in a class action lawsuit against CEO Elon Musk over his 2018 tweets. The jury concluded on Friday (local time) after only around two hours of deliberations that the plaintiffs could not prove that Musk was responsible for their losses in the stock market.

The proceedings involved two tweets in which Musk announced in August 2018 that he wanted to take the electric car manufacturer off the stock exchange. Specifically, his claims that funding for such a deal has been secured and that there is broad investor support for it are the focus. It later emerged that there were no written commitments from funders – and many key investors wanted Tesla to remain public. Musk gave up the plan a little later.

The suing investors accused Musk of his claims in the tweet constituting fraud that caused the stock price to fluctuate. That’s why they lost money. Musk’s lawyer said in the proceedings that the Tesla boss may not have been precise enough in his choice of words, but that he was verbally promised enough money for the deal. The entire trial was open to the public via audio transmission.

Good news for Tesla and Elon Musk. Because it proves that Elon Musk may have spread fake news (i.e. passed on information that he believed to be true but was not true in retrospect) but had not lied (i.e. did not say anything out loud even though he was at the moment knew it wasn’t true when he said it). Which, admittedly, may not be understandable for uninterested lawyers. But if you let what is said melt in your mouth with your eyes blindfolded, it still sounds enlightening! Or?

From a technical point of view,
the company’s shares have recently recovered significantly, but consolidation is overdue. The Investors’ Day on March 1 could provide new impetus.

The Figures For 2022 Were In Line With Expectations.
As Far As The Outlook Is Concerned, CEO Elon Musk Is Once Again Leaning Far Out Of The Window. Is That Enough To Give The Share New Impetus?

16 years ago, Elon Musk had an idea. He cleared a Lotus Elise down to the last screw and packed the box to the last corner with batteries including an electric motor. The funky and extroverted CEO of Tesla subsequently electrified an entire society, luring buyers with his stylish and innovative products and shaking giants like BMW. In a very short time, Musk built four gigafactories including battery production out of the ground. The product range was broken down from the high-priced Model S to the affordable Model 3, opening up new groups of buyers and new markets. And now? Does Musk have the next hip idea in the pipeline to give Tesla the next push?

Wedbush Raises Price Target – Price Cuts Convince Chinese Buyers

In a note, while demand in China weighed on Tesla in Q4 due to lockdowns and macroeconomic uncertainty, we are now seeing a significant turnaround in Chinese EV buyers favoring Tesla over local manufacturers, Nio, Xpeng. According to surveys in China, the price cuts have convinced 3 out of 4 EV buyers in China. Additionally, Tesla’s unmatched ability to scale its manufacturing in China ensures stable margins, which is critical for the stock market. The US electric car manufacturer Tesla surprisingly increased the prices for its Model Y in the USA on Friday. According to the company’s website, the Model Y Long Range rose in price by 1,500 to just under $55,000 and the Model Y Performance rose by 1,000 to just under $58,000. The background is the US government’s adjustment of the definition of an “SUV”. This should allow more electric vehicles from Tesla, General Motors and other automakers to enjoy tax credits of up to $7,500. The change will raise the price cap for vehicles like the Tesla Model Y, Cadillac Lyriq, Ford Mustang Mach-E and Volkswagen ID.4 from $55,000 to $80,000. Previously, some or all of these vehicle models were ineligible because they did not qualify as SUVs under Treasury Department standards.

What’s Next After The 70 Percent Move? That’s What The Analysts Say!

Tesla stock put in a strong performance following fourth-quarter earnings. Plus 70 percent in January 2023 alone is a word! Sure, compared to the fall from over 400 to almost 100 USD, it’s still a bitter loss! But attacking $200 in just four weeks? This can not go well! How is the stock doing now?

Fourth quarter numbers weren’t a blip to the upside, broadly in line with expectations. However, according to a message from Tesla to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, it was positive that the company intends to invest around seven to nine billion dollars in expanding production in 2024 and 2025. The total is around one billion more than previous figures. The reason for this could be the construction of a new giga factory in Mexico. Basically good news from the electric car pioneer. However, will that be enough to justify a market cap of $550 billion, a price-to-sales ratio of 5.5 and a 2023 P/E of 42? I still say no! As with the purchase at the beginning of the year! Nevertheless, we remain with our highly speculative 4XSetUps Trading Capability, in the context of our conservative EURUSD long 4XSetUps – in line with the DOW future and/or also the DAX future.

Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Adam Jonas, again ranked Tesla as a “top pick” with a price target of $220 in a Jan. 26 note. However, Jonas warned that Tesla could test “new lows” in the first half of the year before breaching the $220 price target within 12 months. Garrett Nelson, senior equities analyst at CFRA Research, predicts Tesla stock will have a “strong upleg” in 2023 and says the risk/reward trade-off is extremely compelling at current levels.” Investors should keep an eye on Investor Day on March 1st. On this day, perhaps, new impulses could possibly be able to. In all probability, the new vehicle platform from Tesla will be presented at this event. A small car in the price segment between 25,000 and 30,000 dollars could then be built on this, which could attract new groups of buyers and double the sales volume.

Price Targets For The TESLA Share

In This article you will find an overview of the current analyzes and price targets for the Tesla share.
The average Tesla price target from 12 analyzes by different analysts is currently $395.55. The difference between the average price target and the current price is +122.34%. This means that the Tesla share performs best in a comparison of the competition.

Jefferies & Company Inc. $180.00 01/17/23
RBC Capital Markets $186.00 01/12/23
Deutsche Bank AG $355.00 10/20/22
Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (Berenberg Bank) $260.00 10/14/22
Credit Suisse Group $1,000.00 07/21/22
Barclays Capital $380.00 07/18/22
Morgan Stanley $1,300.00 06/3/22

Current Technical Analysis Of The TESLA Share

The shares of the electric car pioneer have made an almost perfect comeback. The figures for the fourth quarter were not an outlier upwards, but on the whole they were in line with expectations. The market interpreted positively the fact that the last price reductions in China and the USA led to a strong increase in orders.

In addition, Tesla has increased its investments for the next few years. According to a statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Tesla intends to invest around seven to nine billion dollars in expanding production in 2024 and 2025. The sum is around one billion more than the previous figures. One of the reasons for this could be the construction of a new giga factory in Mexico.

From a technical point of view, the next technical signal pattern is emerging after the most recent run. “After the brilliant break of the short-term downward trend on January 23, 2023, the subsequent successful re-test and the opening gap on January 26, 2023, the price development is now again reaching an immensely important chart technical mark. This runs precisely at 198.92 US Dollar. This level corresponds to a chart technical horizontal line that has been acting as a guide for some time. If the chart breaks through this, then the 200-day moving average at around 229 US dollars could become the next short-term target,” said chart technology expert Martin Utschneider Said Donner & Reuschel.

“If the Tesla share does not make this breakout, the price will probably quickly find itself back at 179.83. The trend-following indicator MACD is currently trending steeply upwards. In addition, the slow stochastic signals a short-term buy signal. However, it is also very slightly overbought. This increases the signs that the USD 198.92 will “tip the scales” in the short term. Exceeding this mark would be a certain liberation. A failure would quickly turn the currently ongoing euphoria into sadness again leave”, adds Martin Utschneider.

From a fundamental perspective, investors should keep an eye on Investor Day on March 1st. At this event, the new vehicle platform from Tesla will most likely be presented. A small car in the price segment between 25,000 and 30,000 dollars could then be built on this, which could attract new groups of buyers and double the sales volume.

The price war in the e-mobility scene has begun. As far as margins go, Tesla should weather the price-drop phase far better than the competition because of its cost structure. A positive side effect of the price reductions: In China and also in the USA, orders have increased rapidly in recent weeks. In any case, from a technical point of view, the paper has recovered significantly. Now it’s time to break the important 200-day line. If the stock fails to break, it could pull back to $179.83.