2023/01/30 (159.022) Technical Analysis

DAX Future Again Above 15000 Points
Better Than Expected – But The Year 2023 Has Only Just Begun
Nevertheless, We Remain Long In The DAX Future – Hopefully The Whole Year

Dax Weaker Before Interest Rate Decisions

Before the monetary policy decisions of important central banks, investors got cold feet on the German stock market at the start of the week. The Dax ended trading on Monday down 0.16 percent at 15,126.08 points, and the leading index even fell below the psychologically important mark of 15,000 points for a short time. The MDax for medium-sized companies even fell by 0.71 percent to 28,869.14 points. On top of that came disappointing economic data.

In the course of record inflation and the energy crisis, the German economy shrank at the end of last year and thus fell short of expectations. “The recession monster isn’t off the table yet and will boil up again this central bank week,” commented market expert Salah Bouhmidi from the trading house IG Europe. “Following the euphoric hope throughout the first month of the year, fear and uncertainty could cool equity markets again in February.”

Investors Are Waiting For Interest Rate Decisions

Interest rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are due in the next few days. The market is currently expecting another rate hike by the ECB of 0.5 percentage points. The Fed, on the other hand, is likely to slow down again and raise interest rates by 0.25 points.

Individual Values At A Glance

The prospect of further interest rate hikes had a particularly negative impact on technology and real estate stocks, which are considered interest-sensitive. The chip group Infineon lost a good 3 percent and the housing company Vonovia lost 1.9 percent.

Siltronic shares were among the biggest losers in the MDax, falling by 3.9 percent. The investment bank Oddo BHF was pessimistic with regard to the prospects for the first quarter that had just started at the wafer manufacturer.

In addition, Commerzbank provided a topic of conversation after surprisingly presented preliminary annual figures, since after two loss-free years on the basis Very Important Price Action Areas
For The Next Days, Weeks And/Or Months

The GBPUSD exchange rate pair lost just over 36 percent from November 2007 into January 2009 – from 2.1161 GBPUSD until to 1.3504 GBPUSD. And has since traded more or less in a major historical flat trend channel between 1.7043 GBPUSD & 1.3504 GBPUSD. It was only in the year 2016 that the GBPUSD exchange rate pair traded below 1.3504 GBPUSD – but rallied several times back to as highs as 1.40 GBPUSD in 2018 and/or 2021 – before the selling off started since May 2021.

1.2800 4XSetUp @ Target Price

1.2667 05/27/2022 resistance line above
old new historical lows

1.2293 08/01/2022 resistance line around
old new historical lows

1.2156 05/13/2022 support line above
old new historical lows

1.1950 10/07/2016 new historical low 2016

1.1760 07/14/2022 support line around
old new historical lows

1.1414 03/20/2020 new historical low 2020

1.1278 10/24/2022 4XSetUp @ Entry Price

1.1061 10/21/2022 support line under
old new historical lows

1.0924 10/12/2022 support line under
old new historical lows

1.0924 4XSetUp @ Stop Price

1.0354 09/26/2022 new historical low 2022

And it is precisely from this downward trend that the important price action areas mentioned here arise. Of course, we can also go into more detail as far as technical price action areas are concerned, but we do that in each next DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Online Newspaper Edition. Because, after the us dollar, in this year 2022, as expected but in retrospect faster and/or much more developed expensively than originally thought, we are trying this 4XSetUp trading capabiliyt with the GBP this time. But always taking into account that the USD is yielding a little, due to the brilliant development – just anbivalent vica versa GBPUSD is recovering! How far? We will experience that!of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, it sees itself well prepared for the Linde successor in the Dax. The shares continued their rally, which began in mid-December, with a price increase of 1.1 percent. The armaments group and automotive supplier Rheinmetall, another possible Dax candidate, lost 0.4 percent in return.

The Stabilus papers fell by 2.5 percent according to figures. According to analyst Marc-Rene Tonn from Warburg Research, the first quarter of the financial year for the automotive and industrial supplier was somewhat weaker than had been hoped. Stabilus suffered a hit in terms of profitability, but still believes it is on course to achieve its goals.

In the small-cap index SDax, the shares of the wind farm project developer PNE were in free fall: they extended the price loss from the lowest level since September to a fifth and finally gave way by around 16 percent. Since the major shareholder Morgan Stanley does not want to sell his block of shares for the time being, a lot of imagination escapes from the value, said a trader. A large part of the price rally last year was due to takeover speculation.

German GDP Unexpectedly Contracts in Q4 While German Bond Yield Rises Ahead Of ECB Meeting

Germany’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.2 percent on quarter in the final three months of 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent expansion in the previous period and defying market expectations of stagnation, a preliminary estimate showed. The contraction in Europe’s largest economy was mainly led by a decline in household consumption, amid rising interest rates and stubbornly high inflation. On a yearly basis, the economic growth slowed to 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the weakest since a 2.1 percent contraction recorded in the first quarter of 2021.

Germany’s 10-year yield rose to 2.3%, moving further away from the over month low of 1.967% hit on January 18th, after a stronger-than-expected Spain’s inflation rate raised the chances of the European Central Bank to maintain its hawkish rhetoric in the near term. The bloc’s central bank is seen hiking interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday, while traders will be looking for whether officials signal they are likely to hike again by 50 bps at the March meeting, or hint at a slowdown in the pace of increases. In January, ECB President Lagarde warned that the central bank would continue raising interest rates and leave them in restrictive territory for as long as necessary to bring down inflation to its 2% target. Elsewhere, the US Fed will likely continue to reduce its tightening pace in upcoming meetings.

European Stocks Drop On Cautious Mood Today

European stocks slipped on Monday as investors remained cautious ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings and central bank meetings, headlined by expected rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. On the corporate front, health technology company Philips said Q4 revenue beat estimates and that it would scrap 6,000 jobs to restore profitability, while Nissan Motor Co and Renault SA announced a sweeping restructure of their two-decade-old automaking alliance. In the UK, consumer goods giant Unilever announced it had appointed a new CEO, while budget airline Ryanair posted its largest after-tax profit for the October-December quarter. On the data front, German economy unexpectedly contracted in Q4, a sign that Europe’s largest economy may be entering a recession, while Spain’s inflation accelerated in January from December’s 13-month low. In addition, the Eurozone’s economic sentiment improved more than expected to a 7-month high in January.

So Let’s Hold On For Once What Concerns The Dax

Before the monetary policy decisions of important central banks, investors got cold feet on the German stock market at the start of the week. The Dax ended trading on Monday down 0.16 percent at 15,126.08 points, and the leading index even fell below 15,000 points for a short time. The MDax for medium-sized companies even fell by 0.71 percent to 28,869.14 points. In addition, there were disappointing economic data.

Interest rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are due in the next few days. The market is currently expecting another rate hike by the ECB of 0.5 percentage points. The Fed, on the other hand, is likely to slow down again and raise interest rates by 0.25 points. The prospect of further interest rate hikes had a particularly negative impact on technology and real estate stocks, which are considered interest-sensitive. The chip group Infineon lost a good 3 percent and the housing company Vonovia lost 1.9 percent. Siltronic shares were among the biggest losers in the MDax, falling by 3.9 percent.

In addition, Commerzbank provided a topic of conversation after surprisingly presented preliminary annual figures, since after two loss-free years on the basis of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, it sees itself well prepared for the Linde successor in the Dax. The shares continued the upward movement that had already started in mid-December with a price increase of 1.1 percent. The armaments group and automotive supplier Rheinmetall, another possible Dax candidate, lost 0.4 percent in return. The Stabilus papers fell by 2.5 percent according to figures. Stabilus suffered a hit in terms of profitability, but still believes it is on course to achieve its goals.

In the small-cap index SDax, the shares of the wind farm project developer PNE were in free fall: they extended the price loss from the lowest level since September to a fifth and finally gave way by around 16 percent.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial recently rose 0.1 percent, while the tech stocks on the Nasdaq fell significantly. The Eurozone leading index EuroStoxx closed 0.46 percent lower at 4158.63 points. In Paris, the Cac 40 fell 0.2 percent at the start of the week, while the FTSE 100 edged up slightly in London.
The German Share Index Ended Trading Via Xetra On Monday With A Slight Minus Of 0.16 Percent And Closed At 15,126.08 Points

Starting from the last possibly relevant interim high of January 17, 2023 of 15,269.71 points to the low of January 19, 2023, the next targets for the top and bottom could be derived more closely.

The resistances would be found at the marks of 15,184 and 15,270 points,
as well as at the projections to the top of 15,355/15,409/15,494 and 15,547 points.

At the marks of 15,045/14,992 and 14,906 points,
as well as at the projections to the bottom of 14,820/14,767/14,682/14,629 and 14,543 points, the next support areas could be identified.