2023/01/04 (141.004) Technical Analysis

TESLA Stock Was Trashed From Just $400 To Just Over $100 Last Year 2022,
Nevertheless, Despite And/Or May Be Because Of That, A Long 4XSetUp For This Year 2023

Elon Musk Had Made Promises In The Past And Then Later Broken Them
– By Dumping More Tesla Shares On The Market, Which Caused The Price To Fall Further

Now he promises not to sell any more Tesla shares for the next two years. Can you trust it? Basically, I tell all my readers to only ever invest a maximum of 3% of their entire depowered assets in one position. Which I already perceive as speculative. 2% by the way as dynamic. And 1% as conservative. Anyway, I’m long 4XSetUp on Tesla stock as I can very well see the stock settling down around $100. And not just for psychological reasons, because the Tesla share is suddenly so cheap in nominal terms – no, it is also fundamentally cheaper than ever with an expected P/E ratio of around 30!

You Can Think What You Want Of The Tesla Founder – Positively As Well As Negatively

Bloomberg, for example, wrote in the last few days: “After Elon Musk sold almost $40 billion worth of Tesla shares this year – mainly to finance his Twitter purchase – he intends to refrain from further sales in the next two years Musk has made similar announcements before and then sold Tesla shares again. His comments in a Twitter Spaces audio conference yesterday sent the automaker’s stock up as much as 3.5% in after-hours trading.” And quoted Elon Musk as saying: “Definitely not next year and probably not the year after either,” Elon Musk said when asked by longtime investor Ross Gerber, who on Wednesday questioned the CEO’s leadership of Tesla. Musk also promised share buybacks “once we are able to properly assess the extent of the recession.” There is also an interesting analyst comment on Yahoo Finance. “We need a leader for Tesla now,” said former Tesla bull Dan Ives of Wedbush. “At the same time that Tesla is cutting prices and inventories are rising worldwide in the face of a likely global recession, Musk is viewed as ‘sleeping at the wheel’ from a leadership perspective for Tesla, at a time when investors need a CEO to navigate this Category 5 storm,” added Ives. “Instead, Musk is focused on Twitter, which is a never-ending nightmare for investors, and hopes that a new CEO will be elected in the coming weeks as the first step forward.” Ives, following Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner, in lowering estimates for Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries. Ives expects deliveries to be between 410,000 and 415,000, down from his previous estimate of 450,000. Analyst estimates are around 435,000.Analysts Have Given Tesla 17 Buy, 7 Hold And 4 Sell Ratings For The Last Twelve Months, Which Corresponds To An Average “Hold” Rating

If Tesla were twice as profitable as before, you would be in line with the industry average from a fundamental point of view; which would amount to a fundamental reassessment of the new electric car manufacturer. The P/E (price-earnings ratio) is currently 59.61 and at 53 percent is above the industry average (industry: automobiles) of 38.92. The share is therefore overvalued from today’s perspective. That’s why Tesla gets a “Sell” rating at this level. What I just tried to present visually in the long-term charts. Because if the Tesla supporters, let alone the market, i.e. the majority of financial market participants, are no longer willing to continue paying a fundamental premium for Tesla, as far as the fundamental value of Tesla shares is concerned, then Tesla shares could also change over the course of 2023 again more than halved! For real? Yes, but you don’t have to assume that – but you can, admittedly…

The day before yesterday, the US analyst firm Bernstein Research left Tesla underperforming with a price target of $150 based on delivery figures for the fourth quarter. Despite aggressive price reductions, the electric car manufacturer missed market expectations with 405,000 vehicles, analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a study available on Monday. According to the expert, the market estimates for gross margins in the final quarter of 2022 also seemed too high. Tesla is facing a significant demand problem and this challenge is likely to continue in 2023 and will be underestimated by many investors. Finally, the broader market could come under further pressure from higher interest rates and slowing consumer spending, unduly weighing on higher-rated stocks like Tesla. And the US bank JPMorgan also lowered the price target for Tesla from 150 to 125 US dollars yesterday after the latest sales figures for the fourth quarter and left the rating at “underweight”. Deliveries were a little better than he thought, but at the expense of higher purchase incentives, analyst Ryan Brinkman wrote in a study available on Tuesday. These suggested lower sales prices and eroded the margin. The consensus estimates have meanwhile been missed. The US Bank wrote that growth expectations for the electric car manufacturer would be more moderate.

“There’s not a big market for $50,000 cars.”, says cult shortseller Mark Spiegel. “With the same rating as BMW, Tesla shares would be traded at $14!”. Which I fundamentally do not contradict; but simply doesn’t want to resist the temptation of technical analysis to pick up Tesla stock at just over USD 100 as a 4XSetUp Trading Capability. And that with a stop price just under 100 USD.DZ Bank has lowered the fair value of Tesla’s stock from $295 to $190, but left the rating on buy. The announcement by the electric car manufacturer that it would stop production at the important Shanghai site for around two weeks from January 20 raised questions, wrote analyst Matthias Volkert in a study available on Wednesday. The expert currently sees a temporary weakness in demand, not least due to the current wave of Covid pandemics in China. Tesla is struggling with an uncertain sales trend in the Chinese market. The analyst therefore corrected his earnings estimates. From the second half of 2023, he expects sales to pick up again, supported by the first deliveries of the Cybertruck.

However, Let`s Focus On The Technical Chart At The End Of 2022 And/Or Start Of 2023

The Tesla share is moving in an intact downward trend channel, so that the chart development does not appear very promising at the moment. Due to the pronounced downward trend, a trend and thus a change in mood only occurs after the conclusion of a comprehensive bottom formation. Up to the present time, however, even the beginning of this necessary bottom formation is not yet recognizable. Due to the currently poor price development combined with the possibility of further downward movement, the Tesla share is therefore still in an intanct downside trend.

The average closing price of Tesla stock for the last 200 trading days is currently $252.09. The last closing price (113.64 USD) deviates -51.14 percent, which corresponds to a “sell” rating from a technical point of view. Let’s look at the average from the last 50 trading days. For this one ($179.79), the last close is also below the moving average (-31.49 percent deviation). The Tesla share is therefore also for the most other writers and/or brokers, even commentators like myself i know a “sell”. That`s why I speak of an highly speculative counter-cyclical about this long 4XSetUp. Because the charts speak for themselves! Isn`t it?