2022/12/26 (134) Technical Analysis – XETR-MTX& CBOT_MINI-YM1!

This Week Is Set To Be One Of The Least Exciting Weeks Of The Year,
That`s Why We`re Dealing Woth Our Basic Excepations For 2023 In The Dow!


Our New Old Short-Term 4XSetUp, Around Christmas Season 2022 And/Or The New Year 2023

Our entry price was and is the close of Tuesday trading, 2022/12/20 at 33053 points on the Dow Future – even CBOT_MINI-YM1!. I got cold feet because, on the one hand, our previous long 4Xsetup performed faster and better than expected. And on the other hand, the reaction of the market price action, even of the other financial market participants, in the last few days, I had wrongly expected. The sell-off on WallStreet after excepted FED, ECB and/or BOE rate decissions.

That’s why our new old long entry, from Tuesday, 2022/12/20, at 33053 points. With a tight stop price at 32686 points. And our old target price at 35413 points – until the end of March 2023 (just the end of the 1st quarter of 2023). So, if the Dow Future, even even CBOT_MINI-YM1!, should fall below 32686 points during the Christmas season 2022 and/or the beginning of the New Year 2023 – so that we then can realize our losses at the latest! In order to climb back over 33000 points later? I will formulate a new old long 4XSetUp! At this level! This is my basic short-term expectation regarding about the Dow Jones Future – even CNOT_MINI-YM1!. Of course, I don’t want to and/or can rule out the possibility that we will trade new old lows in the Dow Jones Future, below 29,000 points, possibly also in the 1st quarter of 2023. That’s why the relatively short stop price to limit our losses in advance. Even if many of my readers have criticized me for this long/short 4XSetUp trading capability. But still admitted to wanting to continue reading every further DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper Editions. However, I simply don`t except that the bears should take over the price action again. And admittedly, I don`t have the courage either to formulate a short 4XSetUp trading capability, about the Dow Future, even CBOT_MINI-YM1!,  like at the beginning of 2022, in the NDX. To continue to be honest…

33242 Points Up To 35228 Points To Defend In January 2023
– This Is The Minor Short-Term Technical Picture In The Dow Future, Even CBOT_MINI-YM1!

35228 points was the last high in the Dow futures on Tuesday 12/13/2022. On this trading day the latest US inflation data for the previous month were released. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a fifth straight month to 7.1% in November of 2022, the lowest since December last year, and below forecasts of 7.3%. To my surprise, the market, i.e. the majority of traders and/or investors, took the pleasing numbers as an opportunity to sell the Dow Futures since then. Which I admittedly didn’t expect. A lower than expected inflation yes. But as has already been emphasized several times in the last issues, not just a sale. On the other hand, I didn’t expect prices to overshoot. But at least new highs. And that has to be tackled again in January 2023. Because the market, namely the majority of market participants, sold the Dow Future on the following Thursday, 12/15/2022, again by almost 1000 points in a single trading day, after both the SNB and ECB and or also SNB , as expected, hawkish, in public, at their regular meetings. After they each raised their interest rate. And since I hadn’t expected this sell-off, as I’ve repeated several times, I formulated a somewhat more cautious long 4XSetUp again. In order not to run into the open knife again. An that`s why through January 2023 this long 4XSetUp in the CBOT_MINI-YM1! with an entry price at 33053 points, a stop price at 32686 points, and/or target price at least at 35413 points for the first time. Don`t ignore the stop proce! The stop price must be observed. Because I don`t want to and can`t rule out a fall to new old lows of around 30,000 points in the run-up to the upcoming central bank meetings, in the first week of February 2023. So we might well see a volatile price action to the downside as well. But to stay honest I don’t have the courage for a short 4XSetUp. That’s why I will only observe the Dow Jones Future in January below 32686 points, from today’s perspective.

However, Let`s Remember On Today`s Monday Christmas, On This Closed Trading Day,
That The DXY Depreciates on Friday And/Or Treasury Yields Hover At 3-Week High Into Christmas Weekend

The dollar index weakened to 104.2 on Friday, hovering close to its lowest levels in six months after data showed the core PCE annual rate, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, fell to a four-month low of 4.7% in November, in line with market forecasts. On Thursday, the greenback gained for the second straight session as stronger-than-expected US data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s case to raise interest rates further and keep them higher for longer. Updated figures showed the US economy expanded more than initially estimated in the third quarter while weekly jobless claims rose less-than-expected last week. Last week, the Fed raised interest rates by a more moderate 50 basis points but indicated that the terminal rate could reach 5.1% next year, higher than markets anticipated.The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose above the 3.7% mark, the highest in over three weeks as recent economic datareleases backed the aggressively hawkish decisions and guidances by the Fed and other major central banks. The US economy expanded by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter in the three months leading to September of 2022, above earlier estimates of 2.9% and pointing to slightly better resilience since the Fed started its tightening cycle in March. Also, personal income levels remained robust in November. Still, cooler-than-expected PCE price data and spending levels for November limited further upswings for bond yields. In its last meeting, the FOMC increased projections for the federal funds rate to reach and stay at 5.1% in 2023 from prior estimates of 4.6%. Increased tightening momentum from other major central banks also pressured bond prices. Most notably, the BoJ unexpectedly widened the tolerance band on its 10-year JGB yield and the ECB signaled increased tightening.

The DJI Close Higher On FridayAfter PCE Inflation Slows In November Too

The Dow Jones erased early losses and closed 170 points higher while the S&P 500 added 0.6% on Friday with support from energy shares, as investors continued to digest the latest economic data for hints on the Federal Reserve’s path. The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, slowed more than the FOMC had forecasted in its projections last week. The personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States increased by 5.5% year-on-year in November of 2022, the least since October of 2021 and below 6.1% in October. Meanwhile, personal spending edged higher from the prior month and durable goods orders shrank the most in two years. Still, concerns that the Fed will maintain its hawkish guidance for next year persisted after GDP growth and quarterly PCE inflation figures were revised higher yesterday, pressuring the tech-heavy Nasdaq to underperform and close marginally above the flatline. So far in December, the Dow Jones is down 4%, the S&P 500 shed 5.9%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 8.7%, with the three major averages on track for their worst yearly performance since 2008. Markets will be closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday.