2022/12/19 (129) Technical Analysis

15$ Profit With Our Short UKOIL 4XSetUp From 2022/09/06!
We Don`t Need To Hide – Let`s Wait For The Next Trading Capability…

“The price of oil will rise again!” – It’s none other than Jim Cramer who now ventures out of reserve with this prediction.
In his opinion, there is primarily one effect on the market: “The fact that speculators have now burned their paws. If it’s up to him, you can see from the chart that there has recently been a sell-off due to short-term investors who are anticipating further price increases or possibly speculated on shorts. The latter could accelerate the momentum.” And continued with the following words that “the chart shows in any case that the market and the prices of Brent and WTI are ripe for a countermovement. Therefore one should (and this is explicitly not my recommendation) rely on oil stocks. Den “Using dip might be smart. Oil prices could well shoot up $20 from where they are now.”

A detailed and clear technical analysis that I can definitely agree with – but which I do not assume!
I have repeatedly argued over the past few weeks and months that the rising oil price (ambivalent, with US inflation) since the US Democrats moved in under Joe Biden’s watch is due. And expect US inflation to come down in 2023. And or, above all, that Russia’s war of aggression in eastern Ukraine will not escalate. Hopefully turns into the opposite! Because that was the last reason, the famous drop that caused the barrel of oil to overflow – up to USD 100 and over. After the barrel was already so full, the price of oil had already risen successively, due to the green energy policy of the USA, Europe, the so-called West. In particular, our green economic policy – which only increases consumer prices and/or the tax burden of each individual. Nevertheless, I also see technical reasons why we should be careful. That’s why the stop price at 80 USD in the UKOIL.

Last Week On Tuesday We Were Stopped Out, That`s Why We Have To Wait And See For The Next Few Days And/Or Weeks
– But I Assume That The Oil Price Action Will Continue To Fall In 2023, So If The Opportunity Arises, I Will Formulate A New Short 4XSetUp Again

On Tuesday, December 13, 2022, the USOIL price traded above USD 80 again for the first time. After the preliminary low for the year 2022 was traded at USD 75.09 on Friday before, i.e. on 12/09/2022 between 1400 and/or 1500 CET (Central European Time). And was confirmed almost to the cent on Monday 12/12/2022 at 75.22 USD between 0500 and 0600 CET. Since then the UKOIL has recovered; as Jim Cramer aptly described it. However, I am currently not assuming a sustained recovery, i.e. a sustained upswing of up to USD 20 and back to USD 100. But is it possible? Yes! But also 50 USD and less is possible for the year 2023? Very Important Price Action Areas
For The Next Days, Weeks And/Or Months

$ 128.37 03/01/2012 false break-out high

$ 119.46 02/24/2011 upper resistance
sideway-trend-channel
from feb`11 to sep`14

$ 98.87 08/09/2011 lower support
sideway-trend-channel
from feb`11 to sep`14

$ 88.52 06/22/2012 false break-down low

I am afraid that we will be in this price action price zone as far as longer than I originally imagined! Because inflation, in our so-called West, doesn’t seem to get down – on the contrary! And UKOIL seems to want to stay up as well? However, stay cosequent in ths 4XSetUp. Don`t trade UKOIL without entry and/or exit price levels – even if they don`t match mine.

$ 100 08/15/2022 4XSetUp @ Stop Price

$ 95 09/06/2022 4XSetUp @ Entry Price

$ 70 08/15/2022 4XSetUp @ Target Price

The historical overarching scenario in UKOIL could be looming, with a fall from the sideways trend formulated above – with a fall to the GAP, during the Coroa virus outbreak. This is what this 4XSetUps aims for. However, only if inflation comes down. But this is currently not doing us any favors – on the contrary. High inflation seems to be mutually increasing with increasing energy consumption in context of the Russia/Ukraine war.

$ 45.20 03/06/2020 GAP intraday low
$ 37.88 03/09/2020 GAP intraday high

Because if inflation eases and/or the Ukraine/Russia war calms down, renewed demand from China shouldn`t keep UKOIL at this high levels! Granted, even if it doesn’t look like it at the moment. However, the price target of USD 70 remains – but now only longer, probably not until the 4th quarter of 2023

$ 86.68 10/25/2021 3rd big new & 2021 high
$ 77.82 07/06/2021 2nd big new high 2021
$ 71.36 03/08/2021 1st big new high 2021
$ 65.79 12/02/2021 low after 3rd big 2021 high
$ 64.76 08/23/2021 low after 2nd big 2021 high
$ 60.30 03/23/2021 low after 1st big 2021 high
$ 50.58 01/04/2021 1st day intraday 2021 lowSince 11/18/2022 UKOIL Has Again Been Traded Exclusively Below The 50SMA And/Or 20SMA In The Mid-Term

This is important and relevant because the last time UKOIL traded above 20SMA and/or 50SMA was on 06/14/2022. And the daily closing price on that particular day was 120.82 USD. So that the combination of both SMAs is a relatively good trend-following indicator. Even if it doesn’t guarantee any winnings, of course! But no indicator in the world does that! So let’s not get the wrong idea, my dear faithful readers. But still I would like to remind you that the previous bounce – until just 06/14/2022 at 120.82 USD – is due even to the low of the Corona Virus outbreak. Which of course is in the nature of things – in the formula of the trend-following indicator. Nevertheless, it gives us an insightful picture, just a moving average of the last 20 and/or 50 trading days. So the last 4 and or 10 weeks. So that further rising prices, during the Christmas season and/or around the new year 2023, up to USD 82.08 (20 SMA) and/or USD 88.61 (50 SMA) are technically justifiable. But that’s not what I’m assuming. Maybe we’re trading UKOIL more or less at the top of USD 85 again? Free! Before it then goes back towards USD 75 and lower? But since I can’t see into the future either, we’ll wait and see how a new short 4XSetUps trading capability is formulated for the time being. And just enjoy our 15 USD – which we have earned! Or?

In The Long-Term The Death Cross Was A Technical Sigificant Trigger 10/13/2022 On That Tuesday Trading Day,
Because On This Day UKOIL Closed At 94.61 USD As The 100SMA Crossed The 200SMA At More And/Or Less At 102.17 USD

The “death cross” chart signal occurs when the 100SMA (simple moving average) cross from above the 200SMA (simple moving average). Important is the fact, that the 100SMA must intersect the 200SMA from above. So technical analysts, even like me, in this case, can argue, that the mid-term trend is breaking the long-term trend. Which, on the one hand, confirms a delayed trend reversal. Just that the 100 SMA is now lower than the 200 SMA. Which thus initiates an accelerated price drop – but of course not guaranteed. I still don’t ignore the „Death Cross“ by any means – nor do I ignore the mirror-inverted „Golden Cross“. So when the 100SMA crosses the 200SMa from below to above. And this happened last in UKOIL on 10/20/2020 when UKOIL closed at 41.76 USD on the same day! Long ago!? Not true?! Yes! So that in retrospect, at least in the case of UKOIL, we can argue that the combination of these two trend-following indicators isabsolutely justified! But should never be used individually as such! Because there are simply far too many other factors that still have a decisive influence on future development. After all, we are acting, also in the case of UKOIL, the future! And not the past. But from which we can definitely improve our learning curve with the help of the Golden Cross and/or Death Cross. At least as far as technical analysis is concerned.

Basically, I Assume That The Oil Price Action In 2023 Should Be Traded In The Direction Of 50 USD 50 And/Or Lower

Provided that there is no new excessive spiral of escalation as has tragically been experienced so far. And or an ambivalent case of US inflation, inflation in our so-called West, should then bring something like deflation, at least as far as the energy prices are concerned, in 2023 and/or 2024 as well. And that too if China were to relax the measures regarding the virus again. Sure, demand will then pump air back into oil price action. So inspire the imagination of dealers and or investors again. But certainly not as high as Russia’s war of aggression in eastern Ukraine. And or the ambivalent nature of US inflation. Yes, inflation in our so-called West. I just think that letting the air out, in these two cases, cannot compensate for China’s fantasies as far as rising energy prices are concerned. That’s why I’m joining the two bears – to try a metaphorical picture one last time. to the two panda bears ;), if you will…

However, Brent crude futures rose above $80 per barrel on Monday, snapping a two-day decline as Chinese authorities vowed to boost consumption at a key economic policy meeting, sparking hopes of greater energy demand in the world’s top crude importer. Adding to the bullish sentiment, the Biden administration is moving to replenish US emergency reserves starting with a 3 million barrel, fixed price purchase, following a year of unprecedented release from strategic reserves to counter soaring energy costs. The price cap imposed by the G7 & EU on Russian oil has also so far failed to disrupt flows, with top buyer India saying it does not expect problems. Meanwhile, fears of a global recession continued to weigh on commodities as central banks are set to tighten policy further.