2022/12/12 (124) Technical Analysis

UKOIL Price Action Near 1 Year Low Today
– We Are Really Really Good In The Money With Our 4XSetUp!

Oil Price Cap Against Putin – A New Economic Policy Sanction From Our Politican Western Leaders

After months of negotiations, the G7 states – i.e. Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Canada and the USA – as well as the EU (European Union) and/or Australia agreed on a price cap for Russian oil on December 2nd from 60 dollars (57 euros) per barrel. Because since Russia’s war of aggression in eastern Ukraine, Russian oil exports have remained largely stable!? What may have been a thorn in the side of many politicians, willy-nilly?! Of course, the sanctioning states did not want to and could not enforce an embargo. Since the announcement alone would lead to drastic price increases again.

If Speculators Jump On This Fact, Because They Assume A Tight Suplly, Then The Oilprice Goes Up Again!
That`s Why It Is Important To Stay Alert Due Our Short UKOIL 4XSetUp Trading Capability – Even We`re Already In the Money

I don’t need to remind you that nine months after the invasion of eastern Ukraine, the Russian war chest is bulging with oil revenues if you too are an attentive daily reader of my D2D online newspaper. And that too after the sanctions of the West – which many don’t like but also stinks to high heaven. Thus, the price of Ural oil stayed close to its 2014-20 average. Moreover, as for Russia’s economy, as reported by Bloomberg, Russia is expected to post a current account surplus of over EUR 250 billion this year in 2022. And thus ranks right at the front after China. To put it in a nutshell; The Russian economy is brimming with independent economic power. While the USA, for example, more or less has a historical negative current account balance. And Germany is also approaching a negative current account balance for the first time since reconciliation. A current account balance is the difference in value between the goods and services exported by an economy and the goods and services imported by that economy in a given period (like for the year 2022). In addition to exports and imports of services, payments and transfers from earned income and property income are also included when determining the current account balance. A current account balance can be positive (current account surplus), negative (current account deficit) or balanced (balanced current account). A positive current account balance reduces an economy’s external liabilities, while a negative current account balance increases them. And since Russia can sell more than enough oil at a USD price that is still historically high, and or the USDRUB is tending to move upwards, one can assume that Russia will at least not go bankrupt that quickly.Very Important Price Action Areas
For The Next Days, Weeks And/Or Months

$ 128.37 03/01/2012 false break-out high

$ 119.46 02/24/2011 upper resistance
sideway-trend-channel
from feb`11 to sep`14

$ 98.87 08/09/2011 lower support
sideway-trend-channel
from feb`11 to sep`14

$ 88.52 06/22/2012 false break-down low

I am afraid that we will be in this price action price zone as far as longer than I originally imagined! Because inflation, in our so-called West, doesn’t seem to get down – on the contrary! And UKOIL seems to want to stay up as well? However, stay cosequent in ths 4XSetUp. Don`t trade UKOIL without entry and/or exit price levels – even if they don`t match mine.

$ 100 08/15/2022 4XSetUp @ Stop Price

$ 95 09/06/2022 4XSetUp @ Entry Price

$ 70 08/15/2022 4XSetUp @ Target Price

The historical overarching scenario in UKOIL could be looming, with a fall from the sideways trend formulated above – with a fall to the GAP, during the Coroa virus outbreak. This is what this 4XSetUps aims for. However, only if inflation comes down. But this is currently not doing us any favors – on the contrary. High inflation seems to be mutually increasing with increasing energy consumption in context of the Russia/Ukraine war.

$ 45.20 03/06/2020 GAP intraday low
$ 37.88 03/09/2020 GAP intraday high

Because if inflation eases and/or the Ukraine/Russia war calms down, renewed demand from China shouldn`t keep UKOIL at this high levels! Granted, even if it doesn’t look like it at the moment. However, the price target of USD 70 remains – but now only longer, probably not until the 4th quarter of 2023

$ 86.68 10/25/2021 3rd big new & 2021 high
$ 77.82 07/06/2021 2nd big new high 2021
$ 71.36 03/08/2021 1st big new high 2021
$ 65.79 12/02/2021 low after 3rd big 2021 high
$ 64.76 08/23/2021 low after 2nd big 2021 high
$ 60.30 03/23/2021 low after 1st big 2021 high
$ 50.58 01/04/2021 1st day intraday 2021 low”Since the war began in February, the West has faced a dilemma of how to curb Russia’s fossil fuel revenues without squeezing global oil supplies and fueling inflation that weighs on consumers around the world. With the embargo, Europe has dealt a serious blow to Russia’s oil revenues under threat European insurers and shipping companies have long had a firm grip on the energy markets Around 95 per cent of property and casualty insurance for all oil tankers is provided by UK and EU companies It appeared to be an effective control tool for the sale of oil to trade in Russian oil. And yet the first weaknesses were already apparent when the embargo was announced. A lack of Russian oil on the world market would result in a sharp rise in oil prices and thus a burden on consumers in the West. The US Treasury Department has meanwhile a sophisticated P lan to cushion the embargo: European companies should be allowed to continue to offer their services, provided that the oil is purchased under a price cap set by the West,” i read this weekend @ The Economist.

More Fundamentally, Though, I Maintain That All In All,
This Still Doesn’t Bode Well For A Further Rise In Oil Price Action

That`s why we should consistently maintain our short UKOIL trading capability from USD 95 (with a stop price of USD 100). And that although I still want to argue differently as far as the headlines of the last few days are concerned. Namely in the case of China, as far as the price of oil is concerned. Since most colleagues, in their newspapers, and/or analyst firms, expect a falling oil price due to a lack of demand from China. Which I don’t disagree with, as you know if you read my D2D Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper regularly. But I think that because of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the price of oil shot up above USD 100. And/Or rather the US economic policy, especially energy policy, of the US Democrats, under the watch of Joe Biden, in the White House. Because in January 2021, US inflation was more or less 2% and the oil price was USD 40. And that is the main driver, the driving force – if I am not mistaken in my detailed, clear synthesis – the crucial point. Meanwhile the US inflation rate has been on the way back for 5 months – since June 2022 at 9.1%. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a 4th month to 7.7% in October, the lowest since January, and below forecasts of 8%. It compares with 8.2% in September. And the next numbers tomorrow will surely not be much higher as the actual one.For The Past Few Months I Have Taken The View That The Oil Price Should Tend To Fall Below $50 Rather Than Trade Back Above $100 Next Year 2023

Nonetheless, meanwhole i except a price action in UKOIL under 80$. After i thought last weeks yet, that we will still trade UKOIL mostly more and/or lesse in the $90 & $100 sideway trend channel. Upside resistance stems from weakening and fragile economic conditions, most notably in Europe – and this is due to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. So that, if you like, my readers, in a warlike environment, the domestic demand for oil in the individual states lags behind, and the price tends to stay up, precisely because of the risk of war of course. But that should be more than priced in at over USD 100, as already argued. So that support for bulls in oil prices should only come from relatively tight oil supply conditions!? Imagine what will happen to the price of oil as the war in eastern Ukraine nears its end? And or also the US inflation comes down? Right! The price of oil should get cheaper – despite the demand from China! And that’s what this short UKOIL 4XSetUps trading capability aims for. And then also for the year 2023. So just don’t lose your patience.

However, Today Oil Price Traded Near One-Year Low

Brent crude futures bottomed around the $76 per barrel level, hovering close to levels not seen since December 2021, as investors weighed persistent demand concerns against tight global supplies. A deteriorating outlook for global demand has been keeping markets on edge, with tighter financial conditions across most of the developed world denting economic activity while pushing back on the need for fuel. Still, investors welcomed China’s loosening Covid restrictions that could revive energy consumption in the world’s largest crude importer. On the supply side, the Keystone Pipeline that connects fields in Canada to refiners in the US Gulf Coast remained shut, thus offering some relief prices. On top of that, President Vladimir Putin’s threatened to cut production in retaliation to a Western price cap on Russian crude, a move from the EU, G7, and Australia that so far had little impact on global markets.